Potential winners and certain losers

 

 

As in so many past general elections, the sad fact this time too is that none of the contestants in the fray seriously believe that their parties’ development record might count with the electorate. Those from old political families also hope that, as in the past, their “tested” brand names will work for them yet again – local problems be damned. In Kerala the Leftists – who face allegations of aligning with anti-national and communal outfits – could well be left biting the electoral dust. As for factional feuds and graft charges, there are as many in that state as in the others.

But Indian governments are not known to fall because of corruption scandals. These might rock them for a while – but the lull after the storm has always proved more enduring than the storm itself. Come to think of it, hate speeches by prominent politicians are widely expected to seat – and not unseat – the guilty candidates. And nobody thinks anything of politicians distributing freebies – and as we recently saw, even loose cash. Their parties might disqualify them, but only when the television channels splash the news 24x 7 and they are afraid their rivals will take advantage of their culpability.

So this is India, the world’s largest democracy, where criminals can be fielded with impunity and – as in Assam – militant outfits can hope to get their candidates inside Parliament, and win any party’s backing so long as it is reasonably certain that the bullet will help in securing the ballot. Read on… Kerala

Nothing going right for the Left

Poll predictions in Kerala have fallen on their head time and again. Post-Emergency, during the 1977 general elections, Kerala voted against the national anti-Congress trend, and returned Congress candidates in nearly all the seats.

The only time voter surveys were proved right was during the assembly elections in December 2006, when a thumping majority was predicted for the Left Democratic Front (LDF). However, in the 2004 general elections no one believed that the LDF would win 18 of the 20 seats. Back then, most surveys and predictions had projected 10 seats for each of the constituents. But poll pundits this time are giving the UDF 13-plus seats.

The dice is heavily loaded against the CPM-led Left Democratic Front (LDF). The internal wrangling in the CPM and the protracted struggle between state secretary Pinarayi Vijayan and Chief Minister V.S. Achuthanandan did immense harm to governance. And the distribution of tickets itself was a testy affair. The traditional Kollam seat was denied to the Revolutionary Socialist Party, Ponnani to the CPI and Kozhikode to the Janata Dal. There were allegations that the Ponnani seat was usurped following an under-the-table deal with the Progressive Democratic Party (PDP) of Abdul Nazar Madani. (Madani is alleged to have played a major role in the Coimbatore serial blasts.) By this one act, the CPM has had its secular pretensions stripped to the bone. The CPM secretary’s sharing the dais with Madani was the last thing the public could digest. The CPI was pacified with the offer of the Wayanad seat, but the bitterness lingers on. Stung by the insult, the Janata Dal withdrew its lone minister from the cabinet, and has now split vertically. The group led by M.P. Veerendrakumar is opposing the CPM, while the other supports its candidates.

Meanwhile, the Madani-led PDP has paved the way for Muslim consolidation on the other side, with the IUML becoming the rallying point – thereby helping the UDF. The 375-crore Lavalin scandal is also coming to haunt the CPM.

Factional feuds, expulsion of VS loyalists and dilution of the party’s traditional ideology have compelled CPM dissidents to form their own outfit, the Left Coordination Panel. They have fielded candidates in five constituencies: Kozhikode, Vadakara, Palakkad, Ponnani and Attingal.

The UDF is poised to win Thiruvananthapuram, Pathananmthitta, Mavelikkara, Alappuzha, Idukki, Ernakulam, Chalakkudy, Thrissur, Palakkad, Ponnani, Malappuram, Vadakara, Wayanad, Kozhikode and Kannur. The CPM will find it difficult to breach the Opposition camp that is buttressed by dissidents, the Christian Church and caste groups.

The PDP factor will almost certainly alienate a considerable chunk of upper caste Hindu votes and a section of the LDF’s Muslim voters. The PDP votes will not compensate for this. But in some constituencies, like Vadakara, Kannur and Kollam, the PDP votes will help the LDF. It will by no means be easy for the CPM to overcome the Janata Dal in Kozhikode, Vadakara and Wayanad. And the Coordination Panel is bound to cause considerable problems in Palakkad, Kozhikode and Vadakara.

By M. Rajasekhara Panicker & Kavalam Sasikumar Assam

Splitting of votes worries the Congress

The main contest in Assam is between Bijoya Chakravarty, former Union minister for water resources and Robin Bordoloi, former sports minister and son of Lokapriya Gopinath Bordoloi, Assam’s first chief minister. Chakravarty has switched allegiances twice – first from the AGP to its breakaway faction, and later to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

The Congress’ chances took a beating after the AUDF, which has considerable influence among the minorities, picked Sonnabor Ali as its candidate.

In the last general elections, the combined votes of the two factions of the AGP and the BJP were far more than those of the winning Congress candidate, Kirip Chaliha.

In Dhubri, AUDF chief Badruddin Azmal is contesting against Congress’ Anwar Hussain. (The BJP candidate’s nomination was cancelled.) Azmal has good chances of coming out triumphant because Hussain’s performance during the past term has been altogether too dismal.

Kokrajhar will see a crucial fight between the two militant factions of the Bodo separatist movement led by Hagrama Mahiliary and Rabiram Narzary. The banned National Democratic Front of Bodoland took a beating after Mahiliari became part of the ruling coalition. And it openly supports Narzary’s candidate Urkhao Goura Brahma.

However, there is every chance that the main contest will finally be between AGP’s Sabda Rabha and Sansuma Khungur Bismutiary. If Rabha could swing the non-Bodo votes, he just might beat the odds ranged against him.

In Dibrugarh it’s a straight fight between AGP leader Sarbananda Sonowal, who got the IMDT Act scrapped, and Pawan Singh Ghatowar, Congress candidate and leader of the Chai Mazdoor Sangh. But it is Sonowal who has the better chance, because the Congress’ tea garden vote-bank could split.

In Tezpur the battle is between controversial MP Mani Kumar Subba and Joseph Toppo of the AGP. Subba, with his deep pockets, could well swing things in his favour.

Silchar is poised for a spirited contest between Badruddin Azmal of the AUDF and old-timer Santosh Mohan Deb, Union Minister for Heavy Industries and the AGP-BJP candidate Kabindra Purkayastha. Purkayastha is considered the favourite by those who feel Azmal could split the Congress vote.

Mangaldoi will see an interesting contest between two coalition partners. The Congress has fielded Madhab Rajbongshi and the BPPF Dinanath Das. But Ramen Deka, the state BJP president who is supported by ally AGP, could also turn lucky. The only thing going against Deka is that he is from Guwahati, and there is a powerful local factor at work in this constituency.

Pranab Bora Orissa

Cong gets some nice feedback

Union Minister for Rural Development, Chandrasekhar Sahoo, is re-contesting from Berhampur, the biggest constituency in southern Orissa. Being close to Andhra Pradesh, Berhampur is deeply influenced by South Indian culture – a fact that is evident from the residents’ passion for cinema. This is perhaps why the BJD gave its ticket to Oriya film star Siddhant Mahapatra. Bharat Paik is the BJP candidate.

Due to the curbs placed by the Election Commission on wall posters, most political parties – at least in the townships – have opted for billboard displays. In Gadapur village, close to the Andhra Pradesh border, one got a distinctively pro-Congress feel. Sahoo says there is deep disenchantment with Navin Patnaik’s government.In nearby Sumando village the people’s mood this time seems to favour Chandrasekhar and the Congress, more so because the BJD-BJP vote bank is divided.

Kendrapara is considered a strategic constituency. The battle in this coastal region is between BJD’s Baijayant Panda and Ranjib Biswal of the Congress. Baijayant is a Rajya Sabha member, and former cricketer Ranjib heads the Orissa Cricket Association. What makes this contest different from the others is the fact that the Congress has never won from Kendrapara in the past 50 years.

In Balasore, BJP’s Kharabela Swain, who has won three successive elections from here, is trying his luck for the fourth time. And senior Congress leader Srikant Jena and BJD-supported NCP candidate Arun Dey are looking to break his winning streak.

Out of the 21 seats in the state, BJD may get eight, Congress seven, BJP four and CPI 1 and JMM one. Clearly, the BJD-BJP's fallout will benefit a comatose Congress party, for the first time in many years

Dhrutikam Mohanty Andhra Pradesh

PRP could prove the kingmaker

Contrary to popular assumptions, the real threat to the Congress this time is not the grand alliance but the Praja Rajyam Party (PRP). The latter’s vote share is what will finally decide the winner. In the three coastal districts of Krishna, Guntur and Prakasam, of the 48 assembly constituencies the Congress had won 40 in 2004; whereas the TDP had managed to win only four. Independents won two and the CPI and CPI (M) one each. Back then, the Congress had grabbed most of these seats, with a margin exceeding 15% of the total vote share. After reorganisation, there are 45 assembly constituencies in these three districts. The PRP’s entry has profoundly altered power equations – to the extent that both the Congress and the TDP fear that if their candidates lose, it will in large measure be because of the PRP. Says M. Koteswara Rao, a student from Guntur: “The PRP has been drawing huge turnouts at public meetings, and will play a crucial role in deciding the winners in most of the constituncies.”

Chandrababu had been luring voters with “cash transfer” pledges and colour television sets for poor households. A once strong opponent of a separate Telangana, he has now done a complete volte face; he now supports its statehood!

Chiranjeevi’s younger brother, son and nephew are well known Tollywood heroes. All three inherited his fans, as though they were family property! The grapevine also has it that the PRP has sold tickets worth crores of rupees. In the last elections all the alliance partners – the TRS, the CPI and the CPI (M) – benefited, along with the Congress. All were exploiting the anti-incumbency factor. But now the three have aligned with the TDP to dethrone the Congress. This is the first time since its formation that Andhra Pradesh has three major political parties clamouring for the electoral pie.

Nageswara Rao Thamanam Chhattisgarh

UPA's neglect has been helping BJP

The BJP, which is in straight fights with the Congress in Chhattisgarh, could win as many as 10 seats. As for the BSP, it is yet to emerge as a force here, but just might swing the Janjgir-Chanpa seat. The Congress is handicapped by its weak organisational structure, the reason why it could win only one of the 11 seats in 2004. And things haven’t looked up for the party since then. On the other hand, Raman Singh’s work has been hailed even by many in the UPA, including HRD Minister Arjun Singh – which the BJP is now exploiting. Torn by dissidence, the Congress also completely neglected the state.

Anil Dwivedi Jharkhand

All four ex-CMs doing well

In Jharkhand the most riveting contests are for five seats – in all there are 14. This is also for the first time that four ex-chief ministers are in the fray. Among the high profile contestants are also BJP’s Yashwant Sinha and two ex-Union ministers – Subodhkant Sahai and Dr Rameshwar Oraon.

The four ex-chief ministers – Babulal Marandi, Arjun Munda, Madhu Koda and Shibu Soren – are fighting from Kodarma, Jamshedpur, Singhbhum, and Dumka respectively.

In Kodarma, Marandi is representing his own party, the Jharkhand Vikas Morcha. He has won from this constituency in previous elections as well, and his victory this time too is almost assured – mainly because all his opponents are weak.

Sinha is contesting from Hazaribagh. He lost in the last elections to his CPI rival, Bhubaneshwar Prasad Mehta, who then had the support of the Congress. But this time Prasad is alone, and both the JMM and the Congress have fielded candidates.

Arjun Munda is the BJP candidate from Jamshedpur. Two of his rivals, Suman Mahto of the JMM and Shailendra Mahto of the AJSU, lack adequate resources. Munda also has several past achievements to lay claim on the seat.

The third ex-CM, Madhu Koda, who is contesting as an independent from Singhbhum, too has a richer track record as compared to his opponents. What’s more, he is also supported by the RJD.

Twice CM Shibu Soren is ailing and is in Delhi. But in Dumka he is revered like a god. The two other ex-Union Cabinet Ministers, Subodh Kant Sahay (Ranchi) and Rameshwar Oraon (AJSU), should also sail through smoothly.

Mahendra Kumar