Bihar throws up the biggest surprise

 

 

Just as certain things never change with Indian elections, each one nonetheless throws up some major surprise. This time it is Bihar, where the dye has traditionally been caste – but which is just now seeing a major overhauling of poll agenda. For here development is not only an issue in this election, but the leading one; and all political parties have been quick to sense this profound change in voter mood. They must, however, be thanking their stars that nobody is as yet asking whether the netas will also walk the talk. But elsewhere, things remain pretty much as they have been in past years: Only the faces have changed. In Uttar Pradesh, for instance, the performance of Mayawati’s government has been no better than that of her predecessors...

Karnataka

Lotus starting to wilt

Key constituencies include Bangalore South, Bangalore Rural, Hassan, Udupi-Chikmagalur, Shimoga, Bellary and Uttara Kannada. In Hassan, JD (S) supremo and former prime minister H.D. Deve Gowda seems ahead of B. Shivram of the Congress and K.H. Hanumegowda of the BJP. In Bellary, the new face – friend of the Reddy brothers and State Health Minister Sriramulu’s sister J. Shantha – is pitted against sitting MP and Congress candidate N.Y. Hanumanthappa. But till the Reddy brothers back her, she has little to worry about. The Uttara Kannada constituency has been mostly in the news because of the hate speech by its BJP candidate and sitting MP Aanthkumar Hegde. But things are not going too well for his rival, former AICC general secretary Margaret Alva, which in the end could conceivably hand over the advantage to Hegde.

But in Chikmagalur, BJP state president and sitting MP D.V. Sadananda Gowda, has a lot going for him. The Congress candidate, Jayaprakash Hegde, despite the good will he has generated, has adversaries both inside and outside his party base. In Shimoga constituency the real fight is between Chief Minister Yeddyurappa and S. Bangarappa – though it is Yeddyurappa’s son, B.Y.Raghavendra, who is the BJP candidate. And if the latter wins, it will come as no surprise.

Ex-chief minister and Congress spokesman M. Veerappa Moily, who is contesting from Chikkabellapur, has been telling voters that his party has an exclusive manifesto for this constituency. Both his rivals – from the BJP and the JDS – are fresh faces. Most voters would rather have Moily, a “tested” leader, over his untested opponents.

In Bangalore South, ex-minister Ananth Kumar is facing competition from Youth Congress leader Krishna Biregowda. Capt. G. R. Gopinath, the father of low-cost air travel, is also in the fray. Though considerably disadvantaged by the delimitation that took away two major upper caste basins, Ananth Kumar has at the moment a slight edge over his contenders.

In Kolar, sitting Congress MP and Minister for Shipping and Surface Transport, K. H. Muniyappa, whom this constituency has returned for five successive terms, is this time around being strongly opposed by his own party men. Voters across the board are said to favour BJP’s D. S. Veeraiah.

In Bangalore Rural, ex-chief minister Kumaraswamy is so confident of winning that he says he doesn’t even need to campaign! But in Bangalore North, ex-railway minister Jaffer Sharief is facing a tough time because the minority basins were all eroded by the delimitation exercise.

Poll watchers estimate that the BJP could lose six seats.

Shashi Sampalli & B.S. Narayana Swamy Uttar Pradesh

Low voter turnout could hurt Mayawati

With 80 parliamentary seats up for grabs, this one is indubitably the mother of poll battles. The main fight is between the Bahujan Samaj Party and the Samajwadi Party. Buoyed by the massive support she received from the Brahmins in the Vidhan Sabha elections of 2007, Mayawati has fielded 20 candidates from the community, in addition to six Thakurs. (The Brahmins account for nearly 13 per cent of the electorate). But Mayawati may fall far short of her aim of winning 50 seats due to the widespread disenchantment with the performance of her government. The inaccessibility of her party’s Brahmin face, Satish Chandra Mishra, is also cited as a factor that could cost her the Brahmin vote this time. Plus, the voter turnout is not expected to be high – being 48 per cent in the first of the election’s five phases.

With 24.67 per cent of the vote in the 2004 Lok Sabha polls, the party had bagged 19 seats, against the SP’s 35. But the latter, which had then cornered 26.74 per cent of the vote, could lose a substantial number of Muslim votes (19 per cent) due to its alignment with Kalyan Singh, who is widely seen as the architect of the Babri Masjid demolition. That is the reason why Sanjay Dutt has been at such pains to emphasise his Muslim roots.

The BJP, which could manage just 10 seats and 22.17 per cent of the vote in 2004, is banking heavily on all these factors to revive its fortunes. The Congress is going it alone – and though party workers welcome the decision it is not clear whether it will be able to win more than the nine seats it did last time.

Puja Awasthi Gujarat

Modi’s caste game could pay off

Two decades ago Congress stalwarts – the late Zinabhai Darji and former cabinet minister and ex-chief minister Madhavsingh Solanki – had floated the KHAM theory to sideline the powerful Patel community. KHAM stood for Khshatriyas (39%), Harijans (7.5%), Adivasis (14%) and Muslims (8.5%).This time Chief Minister Narendra Modi too has done a KHAM – sans Muslims of course. Plus he has fielded several candidates with criminal backgrounds. In Patan, for instance, the BJP candidate, Bhavsingh Rathor, was once a dreaded dacoit; in Anand and Navsari (north Gujarat) both the contestants are co-operative bank defaulters; and in Dahod and Panchmahal illegal liquor vendors are in the fray. As Yamal Vyas, the BJP’s spokesman, blandly put it: “We are focusing exclusively on the contestants’ winning potential.”

The other noteworthy feature this time is that out of 26 candidates, 16 are first timers and six former Congressmen. Both the BJP and the Congress are heavily into caste politics. The voter break-up is: 43% OBCs, 22% Patels, 10% Muslims, 14% Adivasis and 7.5% Dalits. Indeed the state is witnessing a virtual caste war: It’s Patel vs Patel, Thakor vs Thakor, Leua vs Kadva, Adivasi vs Muslim – and so on!

Between the two parties, though, it is the Congress which has more to worry, because of the mass exodus into the BJP. The NCP doesn’t count for much here, and the BJP hopes to win over 20 seats. But it is unlikely that the fractious Congress will win the 16 seats it has set its heart on – and there is every chance of Modi’s caste game succeeding in Saurashtra and southern Gujarat. All the signs suggest that the BJP will improve its previous tally of 14. In the 2004 elections the Congress had won 12 seats. Manish Macwan West Bengal

Communists slowly losing ground

Change is in the air, with even many Left activists opposing the CPI (M). Indeed in several constituencies, former CPI (M) leaders and ex-MPs of the Left Front are actively campaigning for the Opposition TMC-INC combine. Ex-MP of the Forward Block, Amar Roy Pradhan, in Coochbehar, ex-MP of CPI (M), Abu Ayesh Mondal in Burdwan and Joakim Buxla in Alipurdoars are among those unhappy with the communist rule.

Of the 17 seats that go to polls in the first phase on April 30, the Left Front could lose four – Balurghat, Coochbehar, Bankura and Birbhum.

The new seat, Malda North, will witness a tough fight between the CPI (M) and Ghani Khan Chowdhury’s niece, the charismatic Mausam Benzir Noor – who has the winning chance. The Congress is the favourite in Raigunj, Malda (South), which it expects to retain.

The Birbhum seat, where the Opposition secured 44.29 per cent votes last time against CPI (M)’s 51.45 per cent, may elect actress-director turned TMC activist Shatabdi Roy.

In Kolkata, Mamata Banerjee’s trusted lieutenant, Sudip Banerjee, and journalist-turned singer Kabir Suman has a good chance. And the Sachar Committee report, land grab issues and Opposition unity might leave all-time winner Hannan Mollah in the dumps.

In the North and South 24 Parganas, till recently a CPI (M) stronghold, the party is unlikely to win more than a couple of seats. But then the CPI (M) has a long history of ruling Bengal. So however much things go badly for it, the rival combine won’t, according to estimates, win more than 18 to 20 seats of the 42 in the state.

Chandrasekhar Bhattacharjee Madhya Pradesh

The mood in BJP remains upbeat

Of the total 29, there are five to six swing seats here. In the last elections, the BJP and the Congress had bagged 25 and four seats respectively; and in the by-polls, the latter had managed to wrest one from the BJP. But here the lotus won’t wilt in a hurry, and the mood in the party, which had done remarkably well in the 2004 parliamentary polls and the 2003 and 2008 assembly polls, is fairly upbeat.

For its part, the Congress is comfortable in Chhindwada (Kamalnath), Guna (Jyotiraditya Scindia) & Ratlam (Kantilal Bhuria). And it could also bag the Mandla, Balaghat, Shahdol, Devas, Khargon and Dhar seats. The party is exploiting voter ire over water and power scarcity.

In the 2008 assembly elections the Congress was ahead in Murena, Bhind, Rajgadh, Ratlam and Dhar. State BJP president Narendra Tomar is contesting from Murena and the party has been winning from Bhind for years and years; and in Rajgadh, Digvijay Singh’s brother Lakshman Singh is contesting on the BJP ticket.

As for the Third Front, though it is weak in the state, it can do some harm to the others. In 1998 it had pulled a coup by winning Riva and Satna; and this time it is banking on the Chambal and Vindhya areas. The SP is not in a position to win, but could influence the results in Tikamgarh and Khajuraho

Raju Kumar Tripura

A fractious Cong helping CPI (M)

Thanks to the infighting within the Congress, voters are placing all their bets on the CPI (M). The state sends two MPs to the Lower House. Among the five factions of the Congress, three are led by senior members – former chief minister Samir Ranjan Barman, AICC secretary Birojit Sinha and Gopal Roy.

The Congress has put up Sudip Rai Barman for the Tripura West seat and nominated Bajibon Reang for the reserved Tripura East seat. But here’s the catch: Rai is the son of Samir Rai Barman – causing the factions opposed to the one led by his father to oppose him in turn.

The CPI (M) is exploiting this to the hilt, and has put up Khagen Das for the West constituency and Diba Chandra Hrangkhawl for the East. The political head-count in the 60-member state assembly says the story better than anything else. The Congress has 12 seats and the Indigenous Nationalist Party of Tripura (on which the Congress has always depended) just one. All of the rest belong to the Left.

Pranab Bora Bihar

The caste-ridden state finally wakes up

For the first time in its electoral history every party in Bihar is contesting on the development plank, and for once giving the go-by to caste. It began with Chief Minister Nitish Kumar wooing voters on the strength of his government’s development record – and his line was even picked up by RJD chief Lalu Prasad who brought Rs 55,000 crore worth of railway projects into the state. In Arwal a party nominee was heckled by angry crowds for his failure to implement development projects during his tenure as MP. Indeed, barring the hinterlands, most people in the otherwise caste-ridden state are talking about nothing save development.

But it is the ruling Nitish Kumar-led JDU-BJP combine which has the advantage. Both the law and order situation and infrastructure have improved, turning Nitish into a middle class hero. Nitish is supported by the upper castes (16 per cent), his own Kurmi caste (3 per cent) and the extreme backward castes (EBC) – which include the Mallah, Kahar, Barhi, Nai and other communities (29 per cent). In the local poll 56 per cent of the EBC vote had gone to the JDU.

Lalu is backed by the Yadavs (12 per cent), Muslims (16.1 per cent) and Dalits (15 per cent). So if he and Ram Vilas Paswan can manage to keep their bases intact they just might have a chance of getting the better of the JDU. However, by granting 20 per cent reservation in Panchayati Raj institutions to the EBCs, Nitish Kumar has won wide support from this group. He has also been assiduously nurturing the Muslim vote bank in eight constituencies – Kishanganj, Madhubani, Darbhanga, Katihar, Bhagalpur, Siwan, Sitamarhi and Araria.

Nitish has fielded two Muslim candidates – three less than Lalu. And two major Bihar-based Muslim organisations are supporting the JDU.

Asad