Setting the pace

 

 

The elephant moves slowly but firmly. Its motionless figure is often undistinguishable from the brown background of forests, especially in the summers, till one reaches well within its striking distance. Bahujan Samaj Party seems to have acquired some such qualities of its election symbol. The party doubled its vote share in all the four state Assembly elections in the Hindi heartland – Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Delhi – touted as the semifinal before the General Elections due within next six months.

So will it repeat the feat in the finals as well – in the general elections that are due in six months time? It pretty well might. For consider: it took the BSP – founded in 1984 – four Assembly polls (with a single-digit tally each time), three Parliamentary elections and a pre-poll tie up with the Samajwadi Party in 1993 to make its presence felt in Uttar Pradesh. The party had brief stints at power there with the Bharatiya Janata Party’s support in 1995, 1997 and 2002, before it secured a complete majority in the Uttar Pradesh Assembly election last year. Those who smirk at the BSP’s tally this time – two seats each in Delhi and Chhattisgarh, six in Rajasthan and seven in Madhya Pradesh – need to wake up to some facts that are not so clearly written on the political wall. Its vote share in Delhi rose to 12; in Madhya Pradesh to 11; in Rajasthan to eight; and in Chhattisgarh to six.

Significantly, all these states have traditionally been two-party states, with almost no space for a third party. The Bahujan Samaj Party still bagged well over 10,000 votes in nearly half of the constituencies it contested in Delhi, and a quarter of those it did in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh. “In Delhi, it demolished the notion that the BSP would damage only the Congress,” conceded a senior BJP leader, who naturally did not wish to be named. And he added that but for the BSP, the Congress would almost certainly have registered an even more emphatic win in Rajasthan than it eventually did.

All this has emboldened BSP chief Mayawati to strike a harder bargain with its allies in seat adjustment talks for the parliamentary elections coming up next year. She has already been projected as the prime ministerial candidate by Left Front leaders Prakash Karat and AB Bardhan. And now with TDP chief Chandrababu Naidu and AIADMK president J Jayalalitha tying up with the Left parties, the ground is ready for the proposed Third Front. The BSP’s emergence has clearly underlined the fact that the General Elections won’t be a two-horse race; and if Mayawati throws her lot behind the comrades, this Third Front could well be in a position to take a shot at power as well.

Another revelation from the just concluded Assembly elections is that a potion of good governance, development, rapport with the electorate and a cohesive party campaign makes a winning mix that is quite capable of negating the anti-incumbency factor.

Indeed, it was this same concoction that helped Sheila Dixit in Delhi, Shivraj Singh Chauhan in Madhya Pradesh and Raman Singh in Chhattisgarh. Is Vasundhara Raje listening? If she failed to retain the gaddi in Rajasthan despite massive development during her tenure and her impressive electorate-connect, it was primarily because she neglected her own party. The state party chief Om Mathur admitted as much when he told TSI that there was a “communication gap” between the party and the government till he took over in January. While the party sought to keep her reined in, Vasundhara wanted a free hand. This much was evident in her opposition to RSS pracharak (preacher) Mathur’s appointment as state BJP president in place of her own favourite Mahesh Sharma. Relations between the party and the government had deteriorated to the extent that officials of a public relations company hired to oversee the BJP’s campaign acted as messenger between Mathur and Vasundhara. The lack of consensus saw fierce arguments during candidate selection and propping up of 75 rebels against the party’s official nominees. The BSP factor and the BJP’s anti-terror rhetoric post-Mumbai attacks too failed to salvage Vasundhara’s fortunes. In Delhi, people were swayed by Sheila Dikshit’s consistent track record on development, and simply ignored the BJP’s campaign against the BRT corridor and the Sheila government’s anti-ceiling drive. While the BJP tried to make inflation and terror election issues, the Congress’s performance on local issues won the day for the party. As also Sheila’s earthiness – so refreshingly different after the subtle political games with which VK Malhotra attempted to build his case against the Congress. Another thing that made Malhotra a not quite happy choice was his political inaction over the past 40 years. With so little contribution to state politics, it surprised many when he was suddenly made the chief ministerial candidate. The candidacy was quite simply thrust on him.

In Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh – the creditable innings of Shivraj Chauhan and Raman Singh notwithstanding – the two were also partly helped by the Congress party’s internecine struggles and often outright negative campaigns. The party failed to project a united front, ignoring young leaders like Jyotiraditya Scindia.

In Chhattisgarh too, the Congress was visibly divided between the VC Shukla, Moti Lal Vora and Ajit Jogi camps. While Jogi kept projecting himself as the chief ministerial candidate, the other Congress leaders continued to be in denial mode, confounding the electorate to no end. Slim as Congress chances were, Chief Minister Raman Singh’s promise of providing rice at Rs one per kg won for him the sobriquet of Chaval Baba. In an impoverished state like Chhattisgarh, such gestures count a great deal; and the Congress could find no effective counter to the popularity this had ensured. But if these upsets can for a moment be put aside, the polls do show that the scale – howsoever slightly – is at this point tilted in favour of Congress. And it also looks like the finals will be a real cliffhanger. The issues will be different no doubt, as too will be the protagonists. But what is almost certain is that smaller parties like the BSP will have a major say in determining the course of events.

Both Congress and BJP are gearing up for the Big Battle. While Congress has to put its house to order in some states, BJP wants to sharpen its attack on issues which it feels, might appeal to people in parliamentary elections. “People might not have found rising prices and terror a potent issue in the Assembly elections, but we will keep highlighting the government unwillingness for strident terror law, till either government accedes or people realise the need for such a law”, says BJP general secretary Arun Jaitely.

By announcing a hefty bail package, Congress is leaving no stone unturned to contain inflation, rising prices and combat economic recession. It has already reduced the repo rate and reverse repo rate, besides infusing the manufacturing sector by lowering cenvat. “People would have forgotten about inflation and price rise by General Election time,” said a senior Congress leader. But where all pundits have failed, such statements seem based on the recent euphoria. Reality may be different. Turnout mystery!

Unthinkable voter turnout initially baffled analysts, but it seems this is realpolitik

Groom Piara Singh, wearing a sehra (wedding head gear) became the centre of attraction at the Bikhangala polling station in Udhampur district when he arrived in a vehicle along with 60 baratis. Polling staff as well as voters, already standing in a queue, were amazed to see the marriage party at polling booth. And a woman, injured on the way to her booth, cast her vote before she went to the hospital. And this is the story of Jammu & Kashmir today. Separatists had issued an election ban diktat. But the result? In all but two constituencies, voters amazed India: the highest turnout registered was 77 per cent in Mendhar constituency in the first phase. Even more surprising is that Mendhar had seen a voter turnout of 60 per cent in 2003. Surankote and Poonch-Haveli also saw tremendous rise in voter turnouts. Surankote had voted 40 per cent in the last election and this time scored 74.38. This rubbished all predictions of a poll washout under threat from terrorists and moderate separatists, so much so that when this happened analysts were hard pressed for a proper explanation. The ground reality was two-fold. Many voters, without wanting their names out, told TSI that it is all right for separatists to give a call, “but so long as we are in India, we need the MLAs for our every little need. Who will get us the power, the water or the roads?”

Besides, it is also a fact that many in the Valley came out to vote in chilling cold because they feared staying at home would give the Bharatiya Janata Party a lead. And for the village people, this was one occasion, too, to go out and do something different than just sit and shiver at home!

Gary Salyal