Impregnable fortress?

In the just-concluded winter session of the Delhi Assembly, a heated debate was on over the question of allowing FDI in the retail sector. The BJP Chief Whip Sahib Singh Chauhan thundered: “You (the ruling Sheila Dikshit government) are playing with country’s future. If you pass this resolution in the House, then the people of Delhi will reject you and you will be sitting on this side (Opposition benches) and we will be sitting on the ruling side”.

 The MLA of the Muslim majority Matia Mahal constituency Shoeb Iqbal retorted: “Without our (Muslims) help, you cannot sit there. We will make the third force that will remove this government.” Though Iqbal said this in a lighter vein, his statement did hold some water as the BJP had come to power in Delhi in 1993 only when Muslims of the city voted for Janata Dal. After the demolition of the Babri Masjid, Muslims drifted away from the Congress and the Sikh community was already anti-Congress since the 1984 riots. The anger of these two major minority blocks paved the way for the BJP to come to power in Delhi.

 Things changed in 1997 as Chief Minister Madan Lal Khurana’s name figured in a hawala case and this forced him to pass the baton to the strong Jat leader Sahib Singh Verma. This passing off the baton was the beginning of differences in the BJP. Infighting among BJP leaders has only increased since then. In 1998, the mishandling of the onion crisis proved to be the BJP’s undoing. The party panicked and handed over Delhi’s reins to Sushma Swaraj. Since then, no medication has worked for the BJP.

Both Muslims and Sikhs have returned to the Congress fold. The party not only got back its traditional voters but with the advent of Sheila Dikshit in Delhi politics, the middle class voter  too switched over to the Congress.

With less than a year left for the Delhi Assembly elections, the Congress appears to be worried over a strong anti-incumbency factor accumulated over three terms, but the principle Opposition party, the BJP, continues to be in a dilemma over the leadership issue and there appears to be no face to match Sheila Dikshit except Arun Jaitley. The latter is not ready to come down to state politics.

 As far as BJP’s state leaders are concerned, no one is ready to accept the other. State BJP chief Vijender Gupta, leader of the Opposition Vijay Kumar Malhotra, senior BJP leaders Vijay Goel, Harsh Vardhan and Jagdish Mukhi all have their eyes on chief ministership. “No, this is not an issue. In the Congress, too Ajay Maken, Dr. Walia, Jai Prakash Agarwal and Prem Singh are all chief ministerial aspirants. So this is not an issue because in all political parties senior leaders do have such ambitions,” says BJP MLA Ramesh Bidhuri.

 Bidhuri adds: “Actually Congress, particularly Sheila Dikshit, misled the voters in every Assembly election. In 1998 they won on the onion crisis issue and we all know about that issue. In 2003 Congress won on the issue of development but all the development projects, from the Metro to the flyovers, were conceived and planned by the Madan Lal Khurana-led BJP government. The Congress won the last election on the plank of the regularisation of unauthorised colonies. Even the Lokayukta questioned the validity of Provisional Regularisation Certificates distributed by Congress chief Sonia Gandhi. So I would only say that the Congress succeeded in misleading the common people of Delhi whereas we failed in presenting the true picture.”

 Ravi Ranjan Singh, member, Central Advisory Committee, Hindu Mahasabha, is not ready to buy this argument. “None of these reasons can be blamed for the drubbing the BJP has got in the last three elections. The main blunder the party has committed is in distancing itself from the Ram Mandir issue, Hindutva and the core Hindu parties like Hindu Mahasabha. If BJP wants to regain power, it should return to its roots.”

Analysing the Delhi political scenario, the resident editor of Navbharat Times Dilbar Gothi says “Sheila Dikshit has become a very tall leader and it appears that no one can quite match her. Though Ajay Maken and Dr. Walia are important leaders, Dikshit is far ahead of them. As far as other senior leaders like Sajjan Kumar, Jagdish Tytler and Jai Prakash Agarwal are concerned, age is not at their side. So in my view the Congress will fight the next election under the leadership of Sheila Dikshit but it is still not clear who will lead the BJP in the next elections. In the BJP, there are three Vs, Vijender Gupta, Vijay Kumar Malhotra and Vijay Goel. These Vs will not work together. So the V of Victory will continue to elude them.”

 Gothi is not very optimistic about Kejriwal’s party. “His party would certainly benefit the Congress as the Opposition votes will be split. But he could also harm the Congress in some pockets. He will not make a serious dent as he does not have the machinery, money and manpower required to run a party.”

 Senior politician Ramveer Singh Bidhuri says: “Corruption, inflation, unauthorised colonies, increase in power bills and water will be the main issues in next year’s Assembly elections but if the government succeeds in implementing the programmes it has announced, then the ruling party will have an edge.”

He dismisses the Kejriwal factor. “Gathering of 200 people or making headlines do not make you a political force. A party needs infrastructure and in Delhi there is no space for a third outfit as the two main parties have a very strong base”.

 “Delhi is not only a cosmopolitan city but also the capital of the nation, so people here have a different kind of temperament. People want world class infrastructure and they do vote for a good urban face like Sheila Dikshit. So Congress has an edge,” says social activist Dr S. K. Sharma.

 No doubt the Congress has a wider support base in Delhi than any other party. The BJP is basically known as a party of Punjabis and Banias. Congress is not identified with any particular section. Gujjars, Jats, Muslims, OBCs, SCs, Sikhs, Jains and Banias are all there in the Congress. This wide representation gives Congress a clear headstart. “This is one of the major factors,” says Sanjay Goel of Punjab Kesri. “But there is another factor that makes Congress invincible: the delimitation of Assembly and parliamentary constituencies.”

Goel elaborates: “During the last delimitation exercise in 2007,Congress leaders worked day and night to ensure that their traditional voters either remain intact in their constituencies or the number of such voters should increase whereas BJP leaders took the whole exercise in a casual manner because they were hoping that the Sheila Dikshit government was going to lose because of the anti-incumbency factor. The Congress worked hard and ensured that in around 38 seats its traditional voters, Muslims and SCs, would be decisive.” 

 There is no doubt that the Congress enjoys the advantage of the Muslim vote bank. Despite the fact that Muslims are angry with the Congress as development in their areas is not at par with the development in other parts of the city, they still vote for Congress to ensure BJP’s defeat. Chief Reporter of Urdu Daily Sahafat Mohd Atif says: “Muslims are angry with Congress particularly on the issue of arrest of Muslim youths but still they vote for the Congress. The BJP is responsible for this because it does not want to embrace the Muslims”.

 Bidhuri does not buy this line. He says: “BJP is ready to embrace anyone because BJP does not treat anyone as a vote bank but it is the Muslims who do not want to come to the BJP. If they feel that BJP is anti-Muslim then they should join the party and see for themselves. How could Najma Heptullah have been regarded as secular when she was in Congress but became communal as soon as she joined the BJP?  So, it is the Muslims who have to see things in the right perspective.”

 Delhi's PWD Minister Rajkumar Chauhan is very upbeat about his party's prospects. “The Congress will come back to power because the government has delivered results. We have done our best to fulfil our promises and despite not having all the powers the Congress government has delivered under the stewardship of Sheila Dikshit.”

 The countdown to the state Assembly elections has begun in right earnest. At present, there appear to be three players. Of these three, Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is, at best, an unknown quantity. Sheila Dikshit, on her part, will obviously have to contend with the anti-incumbency factor. However, this will be first time in a decade that the veteran leader will not be facing any kind of dissidence within the party.

On the other hand, the main Opposition party in Delhi would have to get its house in order if it wants to mount a meaningful challenge. But as things stand, it would be safe to say that the three-time Delhi CM seems poised to make it four in a row.

khurramammar@thesundayindian.com