Half A Win!

I guess I should provoke a few raised eyebrows if I start by saying that more than Obama's win, the 2012 American Presidential Elections was basically a Republican loss. I know it sounds provocative considering the combination of cult and rhetoric surrounding Barack Obama that has come to dominate the American political narrative in the last five years. But even a cursory look at the results throws up some clear ideas that confirm the above notion.

Let us first look at the broad results. As this story goes to print, President Obama easily romped home posting a comfortable victory in the 2012 Presidential Elections. Of the 538 Electoral votes, the incumbent managed to bag 332, thereby clearing the 270 electoral votes mark quite comfortably.  After tallying up the national vote, President managed to gain almost 50.5 per cent of the popular votes thereby winning a figure that has more psychological impact than statistical. Obama also managed to win all the states he secured the last time barring two, namely North Carolina and Indiana, which, the President's supporters can claim, have always been Republican states anyway. It did affect the total electoral votes slightly, but again, it has only statistical value at best.

But let us come to the point now. November 7, 2012 will go down as the day in US electoral history, right beside from the election day after World War II, when the unemployment figure in the country was at its highest. And that includes elections that took place in years in the run-up to and after the Great Depression.

Also, the president barely managed to convince half of the country that he is worth winning again. Top it up with the fact that he has lost votes in every possible group, including Latinos, white females, Catholics, Jews and white males.

In many of the key battleground states, including Florida, Ohio and Virginia, the results for the down-ballot Senate seats had Democrats performing remarkably better than what the president did in these states. Agreed Senate elections have a separate agenda and it might not reflect properly in the national figure. But consider this. Nelson retained Florida for Democrats with a margin of 13 per cent while the President went home with the figure of 0.5 per cent.

Meanwhile the party went bullish in the Senate and retained control having picked up seats in Massachusetts, Indiana and Maine along with holding on to several of their endangered incumbents who were in a tough fight. Combine the above five. Do the math. What you get is a Republican loss rather than an Obama win.  

“As it looks evident, Republican leadership has lost the plot. The economy is in no better shape than it was a few years ago. The numbers are terrible. And still, the Republicans have managed to lose. Therefore I would like to add here that this victory should bring introspection to both Democrat and Republican leadership,” says Daniel Larison, a conservative political commentator based in the US.

So where have the Republicans gone wrong? Frankly, speaking, on every front and then some. Take for example the issue of economy. For the good part of August and September, Republicans were not really bullish about their chances in November. And that is precisely why Mitt Romney simply failed to come up with any fresh ideas on economy. In fact, voters got peeps into his mind through his gaffes, hot-mikes and leaked videos. It was only after the Denver debate that he realised that he needed to come up with an alternative economic plan that made sense, which in his case meant comprehensible.

Even in areas internal security and defence, the Republicans failed to mount a sustained attack. It appeared that they gave up without even putting up a fight. However, the biggest debacle is the Republican demographic strategy. In fact, experts believe that this loss will mean that the Republicans will finally wake up from their stupor and try to overhaul their strategy. In the last four decades, or say since the Nixon days, the Republicans have completely focussed on white males. Conventional wisdom had it that if a Republican candidate won 60 per cent of the white male vote and restricted the Democrat to below 60 per cent among  women and minorities voters, he could be reasonably sure of victory. It held up quite well all these years and strengthened during the Reagan era. But then things started changing in the early 90s. If father Bush still does not know how he lost to a rookie Bill Clinton, no one should blame him. But if Mitt Romney shows surprise at his defeat, then things do not appear bright for the GOP. What the Republicans miss is that while they still get 60 per cent of white male votes, the overall representation of white males is going down. There is no plan in place to target other groups. So, whatever little they get among these groups is by default.

Take for example Latinos. You can only discount their importance at the risk of losing the election. They have become so strong in some of the states that they have managed to change the colour on the map. This year, like the previous election, Obama bagged Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico that are placed solidly in the Bible Belt, comfortably. In fact, it can be safely said that in years to come, these states will no more be considered as Battleground states and will start leaning solidly towards the Democrats. Now it is no Quantum Physics why these states have changed their allegiance while Utah, Texas, Arizona, Kansas and Oklahoma, just around the corner, remain solidly Republican. It is the influx of Latinos. And what plan did the Republicans have for them? Zilch. In fact, the entire GOP campaign against Latinos was so below the belt that it sealed their fate. Obama could not keep the promise that he would sort out the issue of immigration once in power. Naturally, there was widespread disillusionment among Latinos. But the Republicans plain horrified them. Consequently, their votes went to Obama. 

Now the matter of women voters. While Republican Senate, Congressional and gubernatorial candidates were still debating about “legitimate rape” and “illegitimate rape”, the Obama campaign sat and watched. Who does not love hara-kiri in full public view? And as it turned out, these neo-Physiology lessons could not save those candidates themselves, let alone the party and the presidential candidate.
Says conservative writer Rod Dreher, “There ought to be some very serious reckoning within the (Republican) party following this loss. But I thought that in 2008, in the wake of the Bush presidency and the McCain defeat. Nothing happened. Of course, this time the economy was still in the toilet, and Obama was the incumbent. How does a Republican lose in this environment? There should be Robespierre-like recriminations.” Strong words; precise nonetheless.

What the Republicans need is a leader that easily identifies with the mainstream issues. Issues like abortion, immigration, gay rights etc turned mainstream while the Republicans were still enjoying themselves in the Fox News studio and The New York Post newsroom. That is why they have lost the plot. It also appears, going by the delay in announcing the results of Florida, that the GOP had put its faith on a legal tangle and would have loved a repeat of what happened in the year 2000. Truly, if a reinvention is not in the offing, then people might as well read the epitaph on the GOP.

What can we expect from the President in the coming years? Well, quite a lot. There is going to be some tectonic shifts in US foreign policy. While the US-Russia reset looks bright now, I am willing to put my money on the starting of a back-channel US-Iran reset as well. Next year, President Ahmadinejad will complete his tenure and someone more mainstream, probably Larijani, will come to power. Both Iran and the US can afford to give it a jump-start.

Even on the Palestine issue, we will hear a few tough words from the President. If he managed to hold his own against the combined might of Netanyahu and AIPAC in an election year, one can only be optimistic when he has already won the day. Also, the way he has refused to play into the hands of Erdogan on the issue of Syria is commendable. It will be interesting to watch how much he can build on this.

I do not see much change on the domestic front. However, considering his open admission of fault, something positive might emerge on the issue of immigration. An opposition-dominated Congress remains a problem but we have seen the incumbent managing to find his way around them. Unlike his first term, President Obama is not riding on expectations. That will help him create  new openings. The Republicans, on the other hand, need to go back to the drawing-board. It's been four decades since they did that last time. They pretty well do it soon or perish.

saurabhshahi@thesundayindian.com