A new shade of Red?

The generational leadership change in China and the re-election of Barack Obama as the US president might not have any direct connection except the fact that the two events happened virtually at the same time. But needless to say, the two developments will have far-reaching implications not just for the nations concerned but also for the whole world. From the standpoint of India, the leadership transition in China could have as much of an impact as the four-year extension of the Barack Obama presidency.

According to strategic analyst Uday Bhaskar, the change of guard in China might not have actually been as smooth as it appeared. He says that frantic push and pull took place behind the scenes at the 18th national congress of China's Communist Party in Beijing. “On the face of it, the transition appeared to be smooth, but in reality it came after a great deal of opaque but very intense factionalism,” he says.

According to Bhaskar's reading of the situation, 57-year-old Prime Minister-designate Li Keqiang, who will take over from Wen Jiabao, was seen as President Hu Jintao's preferred candidate as his successor. A lot of activity took place before the CPC top brass came out in favour of Vice President Xi Jinping, 59.

As members of the all-powerful central committee, the two leaders will guide the world's largest political party and second biggest economy in the course of the next decade. CPC has been ruling China since the People's Republic was founded in 1949. It is the world's largest political party. It claims to have a membership base of 80 million.

Bhaskar points out that the Xi Jinping – Li Keqiang combine has its task cut out. Several recent developments within China and elsewhere in the region have created a climate of instability in which the new leadership will have to tread with uptmost caution going forward.

The rising socio-economic disparity between the nation's haves and have nots has become particularly pronounced. This has been aggravated by the global economic downturn, which in turn has led to a sharp decline in demand for Chinese-made products in foreign markets.

With the teeming millions living in the countryside of China and the less developed regions languishing in economic terms, there is rising discontent among the people due to increasing loss of jobs and dwindling incomes. What could add to the troubles of the two leaders is the recent upsurge in incidents of self immolation by Tibetan monks demanding freedom. Also of concern is the unabated disturbance in the Xinjiang province.
The military modernisation of the People's Liberation Army has also raised many eyebrows in countries in the neighbourhood. China has been trying to forge alliances and blocks in the region to allay these growing fears. This is especially seen in the context of mounting maritime confrontations on the issue of island territories, which have elicited strong reactions from countries like Japan, Vietnam, South Korea and Philippines.
The entire issue of the leadership change and the recent confrontations pertaining to the island territories are bound to have a direct bearing on India and its long-term relations with China.

With the change in leadership in Beijing, India will have to factor in the internal dynamics of China's Communist Party politics and keep a watch on the way the new guard handles various key issues over the next ten years, including the long-awaited border delineation between the two countries.

It is certainly not going to be an easy task. Foreign policy expert Zorawar Daulet Singh believes that the transition in China has raised the levels of apprehension appreciably and no dramatic breakthroughs should be expected.

Says Singh, "What makes the latest Chinese leadership transition different is the extent of factionalism that has preceded this event. The new leadership team is a product of compromise within the party rather than the ascendancy of a particular worldview.”

This factionalism could cast its shadow on the decision-making process as strong  steps on crucial issues will only lead to widening of the fissures and aggravating domestic problems. “It is, therefore, unlikely that China's new rulers will exercise their authority and legitimacy to pursue anything ambitious like a border dispute resolution with India." says Singh.

The subtsantial number of new faces in the central committee, which has over 370 members, has invited analysis. "The Congress elected a new central committee of the party and replaced older leaders with younger ones," CPC general secretary and Chinese President Hu Jintao said in his closing address to the 2300-odd delegates attending the event.   It is believed that this time, the size of the nine-member Standing Committee of the Political Bureau (PBSC) might be reduced to seven with only two members of the current PBSC – Xi and Li – being the only old faces to be retained.

India will, out of necessity, have to do a balancing act. While keeping the growth of its economic relationship with China on an even keel, New Delhi will need to sustain its ties with countries that are at odds with China.
It is a mere coincidence that the leadership transition has taken place just after the Indian government overtly marked the 50th anniversary of the Chinese attack on India on October 20, 1962. China wants India to forget the past and move on. But that might not happen.

As the world's largest democracy, India is busy grappling with issues of corruption and governance. In Communist China too, several senior functionaries are facing prosecution for financial and administrative misdeeds. Only time will reveal how the generational shift in China's Communist Party leadership will pan out in terms of both domestic compulsions and geo-political imperatives. 

mayank.singh@thesundayindian.com