To Moscow, still with love?

When Defence Minister AK Antony and his Russian counterpart Anatoly Serdyukov briefed media hawks after the annual meeting of the Indo-Russian commission on military-technical cooperation in October, the usual bonhomie was conspicuous by its absence. And not without reason. Serdyukov had just confirmed India's worst fears – that the much anticipated delivery of aircraft carrier Admiral Gorshkov would be delayed by another year and recriminations were running high.

Admiral Gorshkov, rechristened INS Vikramaditya by the Indian Navy, was to be delivered in 2008 but will now reach India only in end-2013. The delay has affected India's plans to maintain at least two  aircraft carriers simultaneously. On Russia's part, Serdyukov was obviously miffed at the insinuation that the India was contemplating a penalty for the delay on Russia. The result was terse body language, thoughtful expressions and a general lack of traditional camaraderie between the leaders.

That collaboration in the defence sector – the traditional cornerstone of India’s long-standing bilateral ties with Russia – could cause such tension is indeed ironic but nevertheless understandable. There was a time when Indo-Russian defence ties were largely restricted to a buyer-seller relationship. India's decision to gain self sufficiency after the collapse of the Soviet Union coupled with the new pro-West Russia's failure to deliver the cryogenic engine in 1993,  pushed India to diversify its defence purchases. While collaborations increased following Russia's support to India after the 1998 nuclear tests, the dynamics have never gone back to status quo.

Adding to the strain are sundry other wrinkles in Indo-Russian relations in recent times. The cancellation of 122 telecom licences by the Supreme Court in February this year for instance, has hit Russia’s state-owned company Sistema where it hurts most. Russia has even threatened international arbitration to resolve the issue complaining that it is a huge setback for Russian investment. Russia is also caught right in between the ongoing nuclear debate in India. Amidst the first countries to commit to the construction of a civil nuclear plant in India, Russia is facing opposition from courts on key safety issues. The Kudankulam Nuclear Power Project is a case in point where protests continue in demand for a satisfactory liability clause from Russia.

Moreover, despite all efforts from both sides, Indo-Russian economic engagement has so far been unable to duplicate the successful defence relationship. Bilateral trade still hovers in the region of $ 10 billion annually. To put that figure in perspective, Indo-US bilateral trade touched $ 90 billion last year.

But it is tough to relegate the decades old Indo-Russian relations to the back burner. In the defence sector, for instance, India's attempts at developing completely new weapons systems single-handedly have not had much success. Russia has in fact become quite a reliable partner for India in co-producing weapon systems as manifest among others in the Brahmos where both the countries got together to develop and manufacture the cruise missile.

Says Zorawar Daulet Singh, foreign policy expert,  “Russia has two significant advantages over India’s other partners. First, Moscow does not transfer military technologies to Pakistan. This was recently explicitly conveyed to Indian journalists by Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin. Second, India and Russia have no geopolitical differences in any region.” Most importantly, the Russians have offered to share critical technologies with India which other countries consistently refuse to even discuss. Not only has Russia leased the nuclear-powered submarine INS Chakra to the Indian Navy, it is also helping India build its own nuclear submarine INS Arihant. In space, India and Russia are collaborating on Chandrayaan II, India’s second moon mission, cryogenic engines, as also the Glonass navigation system.

Russia on its part also needs to play to the gallery as India is undeniably at the forefront of growth in terms of defence spending.  Reports estimate that India is likely to spend over $ 38 billion on its defence needs in 2012 alone. Russia, which is one of the largest defence suppliers for India, would certainly not let go of such a lucrative market. 

A convergance of interests has ensured that Indo-Russian relations have weathered well right from the 60s and policymakers are making all efforts to iron out the recent wrinkles in relations, keeping the sensitivities of both countries in mind. Russia appreciates India's need to balance its approach with issues pertaining to Pakistan, Afghanistan and China, while India must keep Russian apprehensions in mind when becoming too cozy with the USA. The key to resolving all differences may well be Russian President Vladimir Putin. “Russia under Putin is in a bid to realign its strategy towards US, China and India,” says security analyst Uday Bhaskar, adding that  India and Russia are making all efforts to optimise their relationship in the Putin era. It seems Putin's approaching visit to India this December may well thaw out the coldness evident between Antony and Serdyukov in October.

mayank.singh@thesundayindian.com