Big Swings on Small Hinges

Four years ago, when Barack Obama trounced John McCain by what was the biggest margin for the Democrats in years, many experts noted it was not the so-called “Blue States” that voted overwhelmingly for him. It was because Obama managed to win Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin, the so-called “Swing States” cleaning the clock for the GOP Vietnam War veteran.  

As Obama seeks re-election after a partly uninspiring term, it is but logical that he is channelising his logistics and time once again towards these fence-sitters. But what these swing states have in store for him this time round is still pretty unclear. Or at least it was unclear before Obama's re-election team decided to use what the GOP has sort of mastered in the last couple of decades – playing dirty.

Surveys and polls suggest that the attacks by the Obama team on Mitt Romney’s private-equity background at Bain Capital has started hurting the GOP Mormon nominee in many of the swing states. Obama leads Romney 47 to 45 per cent in these 12 states, maintaining the same two-point lead he had in the same poll from June, when he led 48 to 46. The poll has a 1.6 per cent margin of error. But, the ads did not have much impact on the national polls that remained static with Obama leading Romney with numbers just outside the margin of error band.

However, it must also be kept in mind that such issues need time for traction and sometime the cumulative effect starts emerging only in the final days. A case in point is John Kerry's loss in the 2004 elections. Then, like today, the issue of dodging Vietnam service had minimal effect on the national polls but affected Kerry's fortunes heavily in the key swing states. The key indicator is whether or not the ad has caught attention. It is here that trouble is brewing for Romney.

The surveys suggest that as many as 40 per cent of the people maintain that the “new” information about Romney's background have made them consider him less favourably than before. The situation is critical among the independent voters where as many as 42 per cent say that Romney was rather too shaky to even come near the White House. In some of the swing states where he was leading last month, notably Colorado, Virginia and Ohio, Romney’s lead over Obama has slipped and turned negative.

Says  Bill Burton, known White House strategist, “You can see panic written all over it. I mean, it does not need a number-cruncher to see that the ads have started to make an impact  on Romney's rating.  How can you explain Romney's campaign team putting him for interview on every possible network in the United States?”

Google has released data showing that internet queries for “Bain Capital” and “Romney” went up tremendously in the last week as more and more people started questioning his stint in the holding. Among the states where this search has spiked, Virginia, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida and North Carolina top the list. It is in these states that the Obama team invested heavily on targeted ads. 

One state among the swing states that might make a huge difference is the “sunshine state” of Virginia. When Obama won in 2008, his winning margin in Virginia, 53 per cent to 46 per cent, was identical to his national numbers. It was suggested the state would turn Democrat after years under the GOP. But that did not happen. Now, experts suggest that while Obama can still manage to win if he loses Virginia, Romney's fate will be sealed if he does. If we compare the numbers with those in 2008, Obama needs to win nearly half of the swing states that he won in 2008 to secure victory again. And in these swing states, it is the independent voters who are going to call the shots. This too sounds bad for Romney because the surveys suggest that of voters that have changed their minds about supporting a candidate, 76 per cent have done so to support Obama, compared to just 16 per cent for Romney.

Elated by the response to the “Bain” ads, Obama's campaign has started focusing on another campaign about Romney's role in exporting jobs overseas. As far as other issues are concerned, Obama has an advantage here too. On the issue of race and faith, Obama makes a clear cut. In fact, it is evident that the issue of race is more likely to impact Obama's chances than the issue of Mormonism is going to affect Romney's. However, it also reveals that people who don't have favourable views on Mormons are, although by a smaller margin, more likely to vote for Obama. Similarly, on healthcare, Obama pips Romney in almost all the swing states. But there is a consolation prize for Romney. On the economic front, the numbers sound alarming for Obama as more and more people are losing faith in him. However, it is unclear if they have any faith in Romney given his weak arguments on economic revival.

All these months, Romney used his so-called “business experience” as a hedging point over Obama on the issue of the economy. The Bain fiasco has all but washed that away. His inability to come up with a tangible defence is harming him big time. Lame excuses might work for his Bible-belt voters who are less likely to give it a consideration. But is looks all set to spell doom in the swing states.