Will regime change in China benefit India?

Xi Jingping, the incumbent Vice-President, also a "princeling" and "hereditary" Communist, took reins of the Communist Party of China to kickstart a phase of national leadership change. Xi will finally take over the Presidency from Hu Jintao in March 2013. This change of guard at the top will install a new set of leaders who will replace the Jintao regime.

The change assumes significance for India as it will alter the diplomatic equations between the two countries. Xi is an enigma to majority of the Chinese population and so to the world beyond its border.

However, as incumbent Vice President, he visited more than 50 countries across the world. He skipped India, its immediate neighbour and now he is going to be the most sought after guest by our government.

Another imminent change is at the rank of Premier, where Wen Jiabo will be replaced by incumbent Vice-Premier Li Keqiang. In the communist regime of China, the change of guard does not necessarily result in any immediate or drastic policy shift vis-a-vis any country. Bilateral relations largely remain interest driven.

Therefore, the pressing need for India is to adapt to the changing political environment in the immediate neighbourhood and employ its diplomatic efforts to engage the new leadership.

Interestingly, India has improved its ties with China whenever leaderships have changed in the past.
With sour experience of Indo-China war in 1962, Rajiv Gandhi government steered the bilateral ties to positive direction.

Narsimha Rao government carried forward the ties and it was followed by a significant leap in relations during the term of Atal Behari Vajpayee.

In the past decades, the two countries have recognised that their common interests outweigh their differences and therefore they do not pose a threat to each other. To cement the above understanding, the Indian government also recognised the Tibet Autonomous Region as a part of the People’s Republic of China and in turn managed China to agree on opening Nathu La Pass through Sikkim for border trade, that extended recognition to Indian sovereignty over the state.

Another major breakthrough in bilateral ties was achieved when Premier Wen Jiabao visited India in 2005. While Manmohan described the visit as 'significant', China termed it as 'historic'. A “Strategic and Cooperative Partnership for Peace and Prosperity” agreement was signed between the two countries.

The issue that needs mention is the new emerging dimension of India-China relations as stated by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh “the bilateral issues have now acquired a global and strategic character,” it is obvious that the two countries need to ponder over a US-India-China trilateral relationship.