The Upcoming Diplomatic Tsunami

Years ago, in 1948, the then American President Harry Truman was famously hoodwinked. Shortly after Harry Truman recognised Israel on May 14, 1948, a full 11 minutes after it declared its creation, Israel quickly moved to General Assembly for UN recognition. It fact, it was done on a priority basis. An outsmarted Truman took time to recover and declined to recognise the new nation as “the Jewish state”. Naturally, Truman was extremely skeptical about the way ahead. He had his suspicion that it would lead to a racist or a theocratic state.

However, the then Zionist champion, Chaim Weizzman, pursuaded Truman by writing letter after letter assuring him that the Jewish settlers were working on a soundly secular state akin to the US and the Great Britain. Truman underlined and clarified that perspective when he acknowledged not the “Jewish state” (a description he struck out) but the “State of Israel”. Needless to say, he was taken for a ride.

Now, 63 years later, the United Nations General Assembly is again set to see a political move. The decision by the Palestinian Authority to move to the UN General Assembly in September this year for a unilateral declaration of statehood has rattled Zionists and their supporters from Tel Aviv to DC. In fact, behind the closed doors, policy-makers are admitting that it will be a diplomatic tsunami of the proportion that won't be easy for the Israelis to handle.

Nevertheless, there is no dearth of critics who ask questions such as whether the General Assembly has the authority to recognise Palestine. What they conveniently forget is the above mentioned incident. It is just that the actors have changed.

It has now become very obvious that, among others, even Benjamin Netanyahu and his regime is dreading this prospect. In terms of diplomacy, the move by Palestine can well be termed as the biggest challenge posed to the Zionist regime by the Palestinians so far in a long history of tussle. Some of the journalists and analysts have reported from within Israel that Netanyahu might consider withdrawing IDF from the West Bank as an incentive to forbid the Palestinians from going ahead for the declaration.

Speaking about the fallout, noted Israeli analyst from Haaretz, Ari Shavit, says, “At that moment, every Israeli apartment in Jerusalem's French Hill neighbourhood will become illegal. Every military base in the West Bank will be contravening the sovereignty of an independent UN member state. The Palestinians will not be obligated to accept demilitarisation and peace and to recognise the occupation.”

So how will this entire thing unfold in legal terms? To start with, the PA will move the bill in the Security Council where it will have a working majority but the bill will be vetoed by the US. No problem. It will be on the dotted lines. Then comes the next level: General Assembly. Here, the PA will have a smooth sail and will get the required two-third majority without huff. As soon as the General Assembly recognises the Palestinian state withing the boundary of 1967, it will become the full member of the UN with a flag flying over UN Headquarters in New York.

In legal terms, it will offer legal rights to the PA and they will come on a level playing field with the Israelis as far as negotiations are concerned. This will fundamentally change the rules of engagement. Ever since the Oslo Accord, the negotiations between Palestine and Israel have not been on the level playing field. Israelis, buoyant by a powerful army, generous aid and unconditional US support, used to outsmart Palestinians that had no land, no military and no finance to take leverage with. This, thankfully, will change.  

Not that the new state will be strong enough to face the Israeli might on its own, but at least it will have a land approved by the UN and International Laws to fall back on. 

As soon as the law starts playing its part, the status of Israel will legally turn akin of Apartheid era South Africa. The settlements will become automatically illegal (not that it is not now) and so will the Naval blockade of Gaza. Needless to add, the Obama regime is expected to do whatever at its disposal to thwart the Palestinians' plans. AIPAC, America's biggest and the most powerful Jewish lobbying group, has started finalising on congressional letters calling on Obama to stop the declaration, as I write this. It is also a foregone conclusion that an all consuming majority of the House and Senate will approve it. But this time, all this will come to Zilch. What will be particularly interesting is to see the US getting isolated on the international forum once again and this time, even UK and France will separate their ways from it.

It was just few months ago when the US humiliated itself when it vetoed a UNSC resolution against illegal Israeli settlements; that too when presidents right from Jimmy Carter to Bill Clinton to Barack Obama have unequivocally been against these settlements. Now it will play out once again in September. Obama will urge the PA to drop the plan and they will not. Consequently, the US will again veto the same proposal that its President not only ostensibly supports but has mentioned time and again including his last two major speeches on the issue.

Also, it is becoming increasingly difficult for the US government to sell its action to the people. “The Americans appear to be getting it. According to a poll released by Israel Project, only 51 per cent of Americans oppose a unilateral Palestinian declaration of independence. For those acquainted with opinion polls on topics relating to Israelis and Palestinians, the results are surprising. The percentage of support for the Israeli perspective is normally in the high 70s, while support for the Palestinians is in the teens. All of a sudden there is a major shift, and this in a poll patronised by an organisation that understandably did not want to witness findings like these,” says celebrated Jewish analyst and a Senior Foreign Policy Fellow at Media Matters Action Network,  MJ Rosenberg.

On the internal front too, Israel is facing much embarrassment. The latest in the series is the outburst by none other than the outgoing head of Mossad, Meir Dagan. Now let us be very clear here, Dagan is no dove. In fact, if you believe Ariel Sharon, his political godfather, “Dagan's specialty was separating of Arabs’ heads from their bodies”. However, such is the cesspool created by Netanyahu that even Dagan thinks Israel is moving towards disaster.

He has particularly pointed out two issues. One was the terrible peril facing Israel should it attack Iran and carry on ignoring the Saudi initiated peace initiative, the other was what he termed “the adventurism of Ehud Barak and Netanyahu”. The spy-master stressed that Israel will be utterly unable to defy the Iranian counter-offensive, if Ehud Barak and Netanyahu pull off their adventurous plan.

But Netanyahu is not particularly known for seeing reason and hearing good counsel. How will he tackle the September diplomatic tsunami will be interesting to watch. The PA has taken a smart step by burying hatchet with Hamas for the time being. But it must not falter on such a threshold.