The New Great Game

The 26/11 attacks have left one significant legacy in their wake, a healthy respect for maritime security in a country where the defence establishment has, traditionally and with good reason, looked north to secure the country's frontiers. The issue of protecting the sea has been, relatively speaking, relegated to the margins.

Prime  Minister Manmohan Singh addresses the Combined Commanders' Conference in New Delhi in September, 2010.

That mindset could now be changing. Developments in the Indian Ocean and its immediate environs have compelled a strategic rethink on what needs to be done. A chain of linked events has provided the perfect platform to bring desired changes in policy. The capture of 28 pirates by the Indian Navy in February, President Mohamed Nasheed of Maldives coming to Delhi with piracy as top of his agenda and India marshalling a Dornier from the Coast Guard with a detachment from the Navy for Seychelles are just a few indicators of the contingency steps that are underway and targeted in the coming months.

The facts that the pirates were Somalian, had hijacked Thai shipping trawler (Prantalay-11) and were operating close to Lakshadweep has one clear meaning - that this critical shipping corridor which originates around the Gulf of Eden and finishes around the Straits of Malacca is not just under threat from pirates but a number of other security considerations which have cropped up on the radar.
Former deputy National Security Adviser Satish Chandra believes not much has been done. "We should be proactive in terms of foreign cooperation, assistance and defence cooperation,'' he feels.

India's problems are magnified because the route also happens to be one of the busiest sea lanes in the world. Pirates, who have the endurance to operate thousands of miles away from their place of origin, have various other implications. Terror, experts say, could come in the garb of pirates. In the words of a defence analyst, "Other elements will come with the goal to disrupt a country’s sea trade.''
Needless to say, this is bad news and has heightened anxieties in the littoral states of Mauritius, Maldives and Seychelles which have somewhat limited resources to deter such elements.

It is this paucity of resources with these countries which has left them in a vulnerable position (see box) and it is here that another Great Game for the control or influence of the Indian Ocean has begun in the right earnest. And who better to lead this race than the 21st century imperialist, China?
With approximately 90 per cent of the Chinese sea trade, which includes indispensable supply of energy, passing via this critical sea route, China is busy wooing littoral states.

So is India up to what China is capable of delivering? Says Satish Chandra, "Our involvement in the region should be heavier. We should be able to provide training, exercises and assistance to the littoral states in capacity building. Whatever is being done is much too little as the Chinese would not spare any opportunity in making inroads into the area. Anybody with malafide intentions can wreak havoc on ships passing through this area."

China, experts say, has placed its strategic assets in anti-piracy operations on the busy sea route. It is investing heavily, has expanded its airport and is offering interest free loans to Mauritius. China is constructing an Economic and Trade Zone worth $730 million which is also the largest foreign direct investment in the country. This will have long-term implications. In the long run, this strategic corridor is going to be indispensable to both India and China in their bid to grow and develop into major global players.

As compared to China, India's decision-making process is relatively slower. Often, the help it promises to littoral states may not come on account of a variety of reasons, the most important being local political considerations, i.e. in Tamil Nadu and other southern states. Experts say India has squandered a great deal of goodwill. "We had promised to mount a chain of radars on 26 islands in the Maldives. While the South Block takes its time to sanction the project, pirates have started striking as close as Lakshadweep, says a senior ministry of defence official.

Explains former Chief of Naval Staff Admiral Arun Prakash, "We have to keep evaluating the areas where we can pitch in to help friendly countries and also chart out new areas of cooperation.” The former naval chief also mentions turf war and red tapism which characterise government departments. Particularly, the MEA people are worried that the Indian Navy may steal some limelight, he says.

Sadly, a slew of decisions have been pending. A maritime adviser approved by the Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) has yet to see the light of the day. With rising dependence on maritime trade and strategic struggle for influence in the area, the Maritime Security Advisory Board, headed by the maritime security Adviser, would have envisaged measures to strengthen and further India's position.
Likewise is the situation of the Maritime Domain Awareness Grid which was approved in 2010. A senior officer in the Navy is sceptical about the speed. He says, “We need to have this grid with Command, Control, Communication and Intelligence so that we are aware of the maritime developments. But at the speed with which we are going, it will take time. We need an impetus.”

It is also important to understand that maritime laws are a little different. The broad parameters are this: beyond 12 nautical miles is high seas, up to this is territorial water, where the law of the land applies. Next is the contiguous zone where the prosecution process is applied depending on the 'intent' of the person approaching the territorial waters. Beyond this is Exclusive Economic Zone of the country where the country is free to exploit the area for resources. Now if we just imagine for a moment the kind of Exclusive Economic Zone expanse the littoral states have, it will show why other big powers have suddenly got so busy.

There is consensus on one matter though, that we have populations with favourable influence in the littoral states. But if we keep overlooking their immediate compulsions and do not find ways and means to address them, we should not rue our losses and gains of other countries. It is time to take stock of the situation.

Indian interventionism

•     In November 1988, Indian armed forces overthrew mercenaries attempting a coup in the Maldives. It was codenamed ‘Operation Cactus’.
•     Plan to open an operations base in the Lakshadweep islands to spruce up coastal security to prevent 26/11-type terror strikes and keep an eye on piracy in the Arabian Sea.
  
•     Pirates were successful in hijacking a Bangladeshi-flagged merchant vessel about 90 nautical miles off Kochi on December 5 last year.