Reluctant negotiator

 

 

Days after the stunning cycle of events, it became clear that India’s response to the deadliest ever strike on its soil by suspected Pakistan-backed terrorists in Mumbai, has been caught in a time warp. Apart from summoning the Pakistani High Commissioner, Shahid Malik, and putting up an old list of its most wanted, including the likes of Dawood Ibrahim and Azhar Mahmood, India’s reaction has been weak kneed. A mild-mannered Manmohan Singh has refrained from directly naming Pakistan but investigators probing the multi-layered case say they have come up with concrete connections with the neighbouring country, including phone numbers, addresses, telephonic intercepts, products with labels, all pointing to a 'Made in Pakistan' tag.

The prevailing view in New Delhi is that the attack could not have emanated on President Asif Zardari's orders but the ISI and the Army which are out of his control.

Most important for India is the account of captured terrorist Mohammed Amir Qasab, who after indulging in an orgy of killing, was arrested on the night of November 26. The demarche served to the Pakistani envoy was not different from what Pakistani diplomats in Delhi are used to receiving: the charge of their country’s complicity in the numerous bomb blasts, which have claimed thousands of lives in India, demand that top terrorists and criminals stationed on Pakistani soil be returned, and terror camps like that of the Lashkar-e-Taiyaba (LeT) be closed forthwith.

Pakistan High Commissioner Malik’s response was equally stoic and straight faced: there is no Pakistani involvement in the blasts and any help Islamabad could give in investigating the case, it would gladly do so. And yes, there are no

LeT camps in Pakistan. Back to square one. Pakistan President Asif Ali Zardari has admitted the possibility of "rogue, non-state actors" orchestrating the Mumbai horror, but has also said that Pakistan per se had no hand in this. And jingoistic media reportage notwithstanding, it is difficult to imagine that Zardari could have ordered such a strategic harakiri.

Experts believe this is a good opportunity to mobilise international opinion against Pakistan, as many were killed who belong to other countries, so their governments are keen to get to the bottom of what happened. “This is the best time for India to mobilise opinion. Not just India, other countries are involved,” former Indian high commissioner to Islamabad, G Parthasarthy, told TSI.

(see interview); There is a large element of truth in this. Apart from many countries which are willing to help – a terrorist slaughter like this has sent alarm bells ringing in most foreign capitals – the USA and Israel have been most keen to help. An FBI team is in Delhi armed with critical intercepts by the CIA, and the National Security Guards (NSG) is sifting through all the evidence to figure out the extent of the Pakistani culpability. However, it is not entirely clear how Indian sleuths from the intelligence services are going to deal with the Americans.

Israel, after the killing of five Jews at Chahad House in Mumbai, has taken it as an attack on their nationhood. The Foreign Minister of Israel, Behrak Ekud, told journalists in Tel Aviv that India has been offered "all kinds of help", but added that New Delhi has mostly declined. Some former Mossad officials are of the view that Indian commandos took too long to neutralise the terrorists, causing an unusually large number of casualties.

There is no doubt that pressure on Manmohan Singh to take some 'action against the culprits' – and by extension Pakistan – is growing by the hour. Analysts say that if the ISI’s fingerprints in the case become larger and clearer, India would have to take some action, particularly because the Congress would not like to be seen as wimp in a General Election barely a few months away.

So what can India do more substantially? According to former foreign secretary Kanwal Sibal, India should immediately suspend the composite dialogue with Islamabad, along with a slew of other measures: suspend rail and road communications, suspend cross-border and LoC border trade and even reduce Pakistan High Commission's staff strength.

Islamabad has already refused firmly to hand over either Dawood or Azhar. Some experts say that while the LeT is being accused of being the mastermind, there is enough to suggest that the well-trained commando killers were from Pakistan Army, engineered to create opportunities for moving their beleaguered troops from the Afghanistan border to the Indian side, particularly because American drones have continued to hit Pakistani positions on the Pakistan-Afghanistan border.

The US, aware of the potentially volatile situation in south Asia, and certain knowledge that if India engages Pakistan on its eastern border then its war on terror in Afghanistan would be compromised, rushed in Condoleezza Rice to assuage India’s feelings. And she commended India's restraint so far.

But Rice told the media on her arrival: "I have said that Pakistan needs to act with resolve and urgency, and cooperate fully and transparently, and that message has been delivered."

In 2002, after the attack on the Indian Parliament, the then NDA government had backed the demarche with heavy troops mobilisation and a threat to fight a "once and for all" battle with Pakistan. That never happened.

This time, however, the world waits with trepidition as to what the next move is going to be. "international opinion is on our side"

Former Indian high commissioner to Islamabad, G Parthasarthy, tells TSI this is the best chance for India to mobilise international opinion against Pakistan Is Pakistan involved in the Mumbai attacks?

All evidences point to the ISI and Pakistan's role, even perhaps a larger organisation could be behind it.

What should India do?

Get more international pressure on Pakistan. Get more international opinion on its side. Tell the world that while aggression is not what we want, India should reserve the right to strike across the international border if terrorists, from let's say the Lashkar-e-Taiyaba, strike in any part of the country again. That should be conveyed to the world. There should be no ambiguity about it.

Is Pakistan likely to take international opinion seriously? Traditionally they have tended to believe that there are limits to international opinion.

This time they do not have many options. Too many nationals from various countries have been killed in the terror attack. There are many countries involved. This is the right time to mobilise international opinion in India’s favour. Interests of many countries coincide on this issue.

Some say Pakistan has played its cards well. It has told the US that it would have no option but to deploy its 100,000 troops on its western border with Afghanistan and redeploy them on its eastern frontier with India, should New Delhi decide to get belligerent. In other words, they are telling the US that their war on terror in Afghanistan will be compromised in a military conflagration with India.

It all depends upon how we play our cards. International opinion is on our side. In my view, India should get the US to move the UN Security Council under section 1373. Pakistan’s hands would be forced.