Pakistan: Straws in the wind

 

 

It is an embattled nation that is in desperate need of being rescued from the brink of chaos. 

 

Controversy continues to characterise Pakistan, created as a model Muslim state based on religious nationalism, which after 65 years of nationhood suffers from a crisis of governance. Today the role of religion in the country’s politics has led to political chaos, which hampers social stability and economic growth. This results in the lack of good governance. Today trouble stems from Balochistan’s underdevelopment, mosque-military relationship and civil-military ties. The economic element relates to weak fundamentals, which manifest in high inflation rates of over 9 percent that also peaked at 25 percent in 2008. A UN inter-agency assessment mission’s report pegged the food-insecure population in Pakistan at 77 million people in 2008, when the global food crisis began.

 

Inflation remains the biggest threat to the economy, jumping to more than 9 percent in 2005 before easing to 7.9 percent in 2006. In 2008, following the surge in global petrol prices, inflation in Pakistan reached as high as 25 percent. Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves are bolstered by steady worker remittances from the West, but a growing current account deficit – driven by a widening trade gap as import growth outstrips export expansion – could draw down reserves and dampen GDP growth in the medium term.

 

The weak rule of law resulted in most western airlines pulling out of the country a decade ago. Today the only airlines are those that belong to the West Asian Muslim states that operate to Pakistan. A couple of years ago, even the IMF team refused to meet in Pakistan for an official conference and instead did so in Dubai. This explains the nature of the law and order environment prevalent in Pakistan. The existence of 300,000 armed jehadis in the country makes a mockery of the security forces, namely the police, para-military and armed forces.

 

Considering that a Pakistan Army Special Service Group (commando) officers mess itself was once targeted by jehadis suggests the absence of human security for the citizenry – either civilian or military. The little known fact that there was a kidnap attempt made on one of the children of the late Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto from her official residence when she was holding office further proves the point. These jehadis have destabilized Pakistan in political, social and economic terms. 

 

Initially the mosque-military relations formed to use terrorism as an instrument of foreign policy against India enabled these jehadis to acquire weapons and socio-religious respectability and acceptability. Subsequently over time when they threatened socio-political stability within the country. 

 

The fact that liberal leaders like the Benazirs, Salman Taseers and Shahbaz Bhattis have been assassinated by the religious right in the name of Islam and permitting the Taliban a free reign of the country suggests a collapse of governance. Another sin was the Pakistan Army’s decision to offer sanctuary to Osama bin Laden on Pakistani territory. 

 

India’s relations with Pakistan have also alternated between correct and hostile with the 2008 seaborne terrorist attack on Mumbai and the capture of Pakistani terrorist Ajmal Kasab during the raid being the nadir in India-Pakistan relations. Today Pakistan has few friends except for Saudi Arabia and a few Muslim countries. For instance, between SAARC regional grouping and the ECO (Economic Cooperation Organisation) which comprises Pakistan, Iran and Turkey, Islamabad prefers to emphasize the latter. Similarly Pakistan prefers to highlight its weak West Asian Islamic religio-cultural linkages rather than its South Asian ones.

 

Pakistan’s external strategic environment is shaped by Iran and Saudi Arabia competing for influence and power over the modwel Muslim State. While Iran seeks to spread Shia Islam over the 20 percent Shia minority that comprises 180 million population, Saudi attempts to counter this through pushing Wahabi Islam through cheque book diplomacy.

 

Pakistan’s problem of civil-military relations stems from the fact that it is a state obsessed with national security. In the process, Pakistan, like the erstwhile State of Prussia, has become an army with a nation instead of the other way around. So much so, the army always wants to be in the driver’s seat and stunt the development of democracy in Pakistan.

 

Over the years, the patina of the Pakistan army, as the sole saviour of the country, has faded with the 1999 Kargil conflict against India and thereafter with the Mumbai 2008 terrorist attack. As civil society gains ground and the fundamentalist fringe recedes to the political margins hope arises for democracy to go from strength to strength. Today the Pakistani intelligentsia raises the question: if the rest of South Asia is ready for democracy, why are we not? 

 

(The views expressed by the author are personal)