Ottoman Pretensions?

It feels like yesterday when everything looked hunky-dory for Recep Erdogan's Turkey. Here was a government that broke the unending cycle of coups and post-modern coup in a country where Kemalists and its powerful military nurtured the 'Deep State' for decades. Turkey was witnessing political stability after decades and it had a positive impact on the economy too. So, when the economic crisis started showing its domino effect, it appeared to completely bypass Turkey. When the strongest of economies in Europe were posting their GDP growth figures in red, Turkey enjoyed a robust above 6 percent growth for a decade.

With the economic well being came added prestige and breathing space for furthering the regional role; something that Turkey had avoided in the last six decades. Since the days of Kemal Ataturk, when Turkey erroneously believed that Arabs colluded with TE Lawrence to betray them,  Turkish foreign policy worked on a simple maxim, Ne Arabın yüzü, ne Åžam'ın ÅŸekeri (Neither the face of Arabs, nor the sugar of Damascus). And considering they were operating during the Cold War era, the maxim served them well. Turkey fully aligned itself with NATO and the West with little or no decision making power and flourished. The White Turks who benefited from the arrangement refused to share the spoils with the more conservative Anatolian side and hence a schism developed. After years of false starts, the Erdogan-led AK Party managed to turn this schism into a political movement and took Ankara. And after decades, Turkey looked poised to experiment.

Under the guidance of Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, it indeed started well. It took on its long-term ally Israel over continued occupation of Palestine and atrocities on Palestinians. It tried to mend frosty relations with Damascus. It also appeared to put aside the legendary Ottoman hatred for Shia Iran and engaged it with a positive outcome. The script looked flawless.

But then, two incidents happened that derailed the Ankara Express. The thumping win in the 2011 parliamentary elections brought the dictatorial streak of Erdogan at the fore. The foreign-backed unrest in Syria lured the naive Turks to believe that they could win the end-game. And in next to no time, they were looking into an abyss.

This week's protest across Turkey will not prove fatal for the AKP government. It is because AKP still enjoys the majority support of conservative Anatolians. However the way a small protest to save one of the last green patches in Istanbul snowballed into a larger one taking on Erdogan's high-handedness indicate that his iron grip has started loosening.

“The main problem was the increasing authoritarian regime of Islamist Erdogan government. First, we had the September 11th of Turkey. We lost a whole neighborhood of a district of Reyhanli, losing 51 people. And the prime minister, instead of changing people’s attention to a different topic, decided to introduce a ban on wine and beer and other spirits in the country. And then, when people protested that, he said, "How come two drunk men can write a law, and what our religion, Islam, says cannot be a law?" And he was alluding to Mustafa Kemal Atatürk. You can be a Kemalist; you can be an anti-Kemalist—it doesn’t matter. There is some democracy in the country. You can raise your opinions. But he is the main hero of our only common story in this country. And when he looked down on Atatürk, it was a red line,” says Koray Caliskan, a political scientist based at  Bogaziçi University in Istanbul.

On the other hand, Erdogan overplayed his hands in Syria. He, and his foreign minister, were confident that Bashar al-Assad will not last one season. They saw it as a golden opportunity for increasing their sphere of influence in what appeared to be a neo-Ottoman role. It was also an opportunity to neutralize Shia Iran that was not particularly liked by the followers of Gulen movement that lends succor to AKP. But Assad not only stayed put, he has now started to turn the tide of conflict. The panic in Ankara is obvious especially when the spillover effect has started to be seen in Turkey. Naturally, people in Turkey started vocally protesting its interference in Syria.

“As Syria’s leaders and people proved to be exceptionally resilient, increasingly more brutal means have been deployed to tear the country apart. Being at the forefront of this covert war in every respect, Turkey has been thoroughly complicit in monumental war crimes committed against the people of Syria. Having very skilfully manipulated the world public opinion with the help, among other measures, of a gigantic public relations apparatus, for more than ten years; Mr Erdogan’s government, like its main allies, is currently experiencing a deep crisis of legitimacy both at home and abroad,” maintains Cem Ertur, the Turkish political analyst based in Canada.

The next few months will prove to be very crucial not only for Erdogan but Turkey as well. Erdogan has delved so deep in Damascus that pulling out completely is not an option now. Pushing deeper, on the other hand, is fatal for his government. The worst part is, whatever decision that will be taken will have to be taken by Erdogan himself. Foreign Minister Davutoglu looks miserably devoid of idea now.

On the other hand, Arabs who jumped the gun by naming their sons Recep a tad too quickly will now aspire for the good old days when Turks “did not want to see the face of Arabs”. When you don't have to see the face, you more often don't have to see the guns as well.    

saurabhshahi@thesundayindian.com