Maharashtra up for grabs

It is difficult to think of Maharashtra politics without Balasaheb Thackeray who dominated power politics in the state for four decades despite his failure to seize it comprehensively on his own strength. The main question being debated within the Shiv Sena as well other major political players including Raj Thackeray’s Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) is this: how will the political situation evolve in the absence of Balasaheb Thackeray?

Uddhav Thackeray, functioning as executive president of the Shiv Sena, is the declared political heir by Balasaheb himself during his forceful and last pre-recorded speech delivered on Dussehra rally at Shivaji Park. He made an open appeal to his basic constituency of middle class Maharashtrians, who thronged his Dussehra rallies for the last 46 years, to back son Uddhav and grandson Aditya.

However, in power politics, this may not be enough. The succession war in the Sena had begun much earlier and all efforts by senior Sena leaders including Balasaheb himself had failed to persuade Raj from leaving the party.

He not only left but set up the MNS. Will the two estranged cousins forget their bitterness and join hands? That is the main question being asked in hushed tones within both the Sena parties. It is too early to say anything, but initial indications suggest the brothers will steer their own separate courses. Whether they will continue the politics of hate and violence and bleed each other beyond any reasonable recovery, is the question that needs an answer.

Political compulsions may dictate some understanding between the two, if not actually a coming together. It is going to a big challenge for Uddhav who will have to reshape the organization in the absence of Balasaheb who had the ability to charge emotions by addressing a single rally.

If the past is any indication, Uddhav lacks the charisma or sway over voters that his father had. He has legacy, but to take it forward and remain relevant, he will have to reinvent Sena and make it more aggressive on certain issues. He will have to take along the generation which remained loyal to Balasaheb as well as make it attractive for the GenNext. The issues before youngsters today are different from the ones raised by Balasaheb when he set up Shiv Sena in 1966, and kept evolving from time to time, raking up emotional as well as economic issues so as to remain in-tune with changing aspirations.

Uddhav had been talking about two projects which are considered his brain child. He had initiated “Me Mumbaikar” (I am Mumbaite) to expand the base of Sena by including not only the Marathi manoos but others who have made Mumbai their home. But Sena is caught in a delicate situation. Raj Thackeray who is more aggressive has adopted the issue of `Mumbai belongs to Marathi Manoos.’ Like Balasaheb, Raj rakes up controversies to emphasize his point. Against such hostility, the Sena was forced to give up the “Me Mumbaikar” campaign.

Uddhav has been talking about `Shiv Shakti-Bhim Shakti’; social engineering and power sharing with Ambedkarites. With Republican Party of India (Athawale) leader Ramdas Athawale joining the Shiv Sena-BJP alliance as a third partner, a process of social engineering which Uddhav had anticipated, is in place. The alliance contested local elections and even though RPI did not benefit much, the alliance survived.

Mumbai-Thane-Pune-Nasik is going to be the main concern for Shiv Sena and MNS since this is also industrially the most advanced region. Both parties will try to maintain their hold over this middle-class dominated region. However, the Shiv Sena will have to also look into the issues that affect the rural population if it wants to fight the MNS and remain competitive. For the MNS there are no such compulsions. Raj is going to focus exclusively on urban issues.

Raj is not talking a hardline on militant Hindutva at this juncture, but the Sena can ill afford to give up the issue which has appeal for larger sections of the population. MNS is waiting to see how Sena leaders and Shiv Sainiks adjust in the post-Balasaheb era. Will they remain with Uddhav or switch to MNS?

The Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) president Sharad Pawar who maintained close personal ties with Balasaheb despite political differences, is watching closely. He knows that with divided politics in Maharashtra, there is very little scope to expand the NCP base unless he either undertakes social engineering steps or poaches on other parties. BJP stalwarts including L.K.Advani were present at Thackeray’s last rites to indicate the importance they attach to their alliance with the Shiv Sena. The Congress which once used the Sena to fight Communist trade unions in the 1960s has already inducted former Sena leader Narayan Rane and would not mind a few more.

The views expressed by the author are personal