Lull before the thunderstorm?

For the first time in his 12-year tenure, Odisha Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik is feeling the heat. After a virtually uninterrupted, decade-plus peace time existence, where no political rival was big enough to disturb the political status quo, the very bases of his empire have been shaken.

Threateningly for the redoubtable chief minister, the twin threat emanates from a badly divided Biju Janata Dal (BJD) being tacitly backed by the Congress which has not taken too kindly Patnaik's vocal support for PA Sangma's presidential candidature and sees in the unsuccessful revolt of influential BJD MP Pyari Mohan Mohapatra against Patnaik on May 29 this year, a chance to settle scores and with a bit of luck, oust the BJD government and replace it with a Congress-backed government in the state. Suitably, say well placed political sources, the desserts of this grand plan may arrive soon after July 19, when elections to decide Rashtrapati Bhawan's new resident will be held.

Says senior political analyst Basant Das, "Though the first attempt to oust Naveen has failed, it does not mean that the second attempt would also turn out to be futile. Naveen Patnaik's government may face political turmoil as the situation is very fluid.''

In Odisha's fast-moving political scenario, there are several imponderables, none more than the re-emergence of former Chief Minister JB Patnaik, currently the governor of Assam. According to political grapevine, Patnaik, dyed-in-the-wool Congressman that he is, has been in close touch with Mohapatra, the rebel chieftain, proving that no one in politics can be written off completely.

It is an old association going back to the days when Patnaik was the chief minister of Odisha between 1980 and 1990 and then again between 1995 and 1999, and Mohapatra was the state's most influential bureaucrat. The two have been in close touch on numerous occasions, mostly behind closed doors and were reported to have held parleys in the run up to the 2009 general elections.

On the day of Mohapatra's coup, Patnaik was present in capital Bhuvaneshwar, as were at least 17 Congress MLAs under the leadership of Congress leader Laltendu Bidyadhar Mohapatra, who were ready to swing into action at a moment's notice should Pyare Mohan be able to wean away the required BJD MLAs to form an alternative.

Though Jagdish Tytler, the All India Congress Committee (AICC) member in charge of Odisha, chose to clarify that the Congress had no role to play in the attempted coup, the chain of events that have followed suggest a concerted attempt to widen the divide within the BJD.  State Congress Vice President Sivananda Ray tacitly admitted as much. "I have no idea whether the party high command has given specific instructions to hold talks with MP Pyari Mohan or not, but I feel that the central leadership of our party is taking more interest in Odisha politics after the Sangma episode. The BJD is on a self-destructive track and there could be a vertical split in the party anytime.''

A desperate Naveen, notwithstanding pledges of support by his party comrades, has hit back. Three chairpersons of state-owned corporations, all Mohapatra appointees, were sacked.

Naveen's acid test will be the day of the presidential elections on July 19 as there is genuine fear in the ruling party that cross-voting from both sides would have two immediate effects – one undermine Sangma's polls but even more importantly, expose Naveen's flanks in a party which he has run with an iron fist so far.

If that happens, political activity and dissidence in the state capital is bound to pick up. Even though the three sacked corporation heads have pledged their support for Sangma's candidature, anything could happen on the day of the voting.

Sources admit that Mohapatra and his group are very keen to prove their clout in the BJD and have the backing of the Congress. Of course, if he is unable to embarrass Patnaik or pose a serious challenge to the chief minister, it is certain to be curtains as far as Mohapatra is concerned.

For the moment though, no one is revealing their cards. Officially all BJD legislators, including Pyari Mohan, have pledged their support for Naveen, but the air is thick with suspicion. Says a rebel camp follower, "Pyari babu has already declared that he will vote for the official candidate and he will stick to it. But we also suspect that the so-called Naveen loyalists may vote against Sangma to put the needle of suspicion on us.''

Ministers are keen to dismiss all such talk as 'speculation'. Energy Minister Atanu Sabyasachi Nayak says that "MLAs, MPs and other party workers are with Naveen Patnaik. Since he is the undisputed leader, there is no question of cross- voting in the presidential elections.''

What has raised the stakes is the uncanny silence of Pyari Mohan Mohapatra. After being suspended along with two other MPs and the sacking of three state ministers in the aftermath of the coup, the rebel leader is playing his cards close to his chest. He had earlier vowed not to remain silent, saying, "I will go to the people and party workers over the issue of my suspension.''

That was Mohapatra's last outburst. In contrast, Naveen is extremely active – all Mohapatra loyalists are getting the boot, including the state's Director General of Police and 32 other IPS officers.

Under the circumstances, the chances of a new regional  party emerging in Odisha cannot be ruled out. Predicts analyst Basant Das, "July may be the month of judgement and chances of political turmoil remain high. Sooner or later, emergence of a new equation in state politics is obvious." That is precisely what BJD rebels in Odisha are hoping.