Hail the Indian Voter

 

 

Who is Asif Mohammed Khan and why has he given a jolt to Sheila Dikshit? Who are Mukund Kumar and Anita Ram and why are they giving sleepless nightmares to Nitish Kumar? Asif is the brother of long estranged Congress leader Arif Mohammed Khan and the surprise winner from the Okhla assembly constituency during the recent assembly elections. The delicious-or cruel-irony for Sheila Dikshit is that Asif was a candidate put up by the RJD, the party run by Lalu Prasad Yadav. Both Mukund Kumar and Anita Ram-Youth Congress leaders and foot soldiers of the Rahul Gandhi's strategy of reviving the Congress- lost the by polls in Bihar. But they polled enough votes to deal a crippling blow to the ruling JD (U)-BJP combine in Bihar.

So what is the message emanating from the by elections that were held in Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Delhi, Bihar and Karnataka? The Indian voter acts in ways that are outwardly so mysterious that it would be downright foolish to draw any decisive conclusions. But three conclusions can be very safely drawn. The first is that political pundits must forthwith stop writing epitaphs of leaders and parties that seem to be losing ground. The astonishing resurgence of Lalu Prasad Yadav and the RJD in Bihar is simple and powerful testimony to this. Soon after the Lok Sabha elections when the RJD was virtually wiped out, triumphant Congress leaders-who possibly cannot even win a municipal ward election in Bihar-and analysts had signalled the beginning of the end of the colourful and controversial career of Lalu Yadav. Now, with assembly elections due in Jharkhand, the Congress and Rahul Gandhi face a cruel dilemma. Should they continue with the ‘go alone’ approach and probably hand over the state on a platter to the BJP? Or should Rahul Gandhi don his ‘realistic’ hat and smoke the peace pipe with Lalu Yadav this one last time? Your guess would be as good as any so called pundit’s! The second conclusion that can be safely drawn is that ‘outsiders’, ‘turncoats’ and ‘deserters’ are punished ruthlessly by the voter when they decide to jump off a seemingly sinking ship and latch on to a seemingly winning party. Both Ramai Ram and Shyam Rajak were founding members of the RJD and trusted lieutenants of Lalu Yadav. Yet, after the Lok Sabha elections, both ‘deserted’ their erstwhile leader and joined hands with the ‘rising’ star Nitish Kumar. Both have been handed humiliating defeats by the voter in Bihar despite the so called charisma and invincibility of Nitish Kumar. For Ramai Ram, this must be a truly humbling experience because he had not lost an election in three decades! You may not have heard of C.P Yogeshwar and V. Somanna. Both were Congress leaders who ditched the party and hitched their wagons to the rising BJP star in Karnataka. Both were decisively defeated.

The third conclusion that can also be safely drawn is that the Indian voter almost always acts contrary to what media hype suggests she will do. Narendra Modi and Nitish Kumar are classic examples of this widening gulf between what the ‘mainstream’ media predicts and how the voters behave. Till about a few weeks ago, the knives were out for Narendra Modi and every Tom, Dick and Harry of a hack was saying these that these by elections will signal the end of Modi as the ‘Chotte Sardar’ of Gujarat. So persistent and so aggressive was the media hype that even BJP leaders who are Modi fans were having doubts about his ability to deliver. And the voter surprised both the cynics and the media yet again. Something similar was repeated in Bihar where the mainstream media had started believing its own hype that Nitish Kumar is the new ‘messiah’ and master strategist and invincible. There has been much talk about him following Naveen Patnaik of Orissa in dumping the BJP. The JD(U) lost eight assembly seats in the by elections. The BJP didn’t lose any. So can you predict what will happen in Maharashtra when voters troop in to booths on October 13, 2009? Don’t even bother; just wait for a few more surprises!