Agent Provocateur?

Kiir's spectacular show of hubris indicate that SPML still thinks, acts like a militia and not as a responsible ruling establishment, says Saurabh Kumar Shahi 

 

When the South Sudanese voted for independence months ago, they certainly did not expect things to deteriorate to such a level in such a short span of time. But it did and the considerable part of the blame lies on their president,
Salva Kiir. 

 

South Sudan seceded from Sudan in July last year, exactly six months after a plebiscite agreed upon, under a 2005 peace deal, that more or less stopped close to two decades of civil war that is supposed to have killed in excess of two million Sudanese of all stripes. However, even after the supposed amicable settlement of all the issues, suspicion runs profound between the two nations, who remain at loggerheads over border demarcation, oil transit fee, the division of assets and liabilities and other thorny issues.

 

While these issues were still being sorted out, in a spectacular show of belligerence and hubris, on April 10, South Sudan forces, clearly under the command of the President who is also the commander-in-chief of the forces, invaded the oil-rich border town of Heglig. According to the 2009 ruling by the Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague, Heglig was awarded to Sudan's South Kordofan province. The reason was that Heglig accounts for 60,000 out of 115,000 barrels of oil produced by Sudan, post bifurcation, every day. 

 

Following this, the administrative centre of Heglig fell into South Sudanese hands for a brief period as Sudan's army was caught unprepared for the assault. However, soon Sudan scrambled its assets and convincingly drove the South Sudanese troops out killing hundreds of southern troops in the process. The attack defied all logic and rationale. So much so that even South Sudan's closest of allies and “friends” censured the action and asked it to withdraw. However, by that time Sudanese forces had simply run over the attackers.

 

On its part, Juba insisted that it pulled back its army rather voluntarily. But independent observers and journalists covering the region maintain that the South Sudanese army was comprehensibly beaten and hence the withdrawal. Moreover, before it withdrew, the South Sudan army almost totally destroyed the logistics and infrastructure in place in Heglig that is essential for oil supply. 

 

The African Union has tried hard to solve all the outstanding issues and went as far as issuing an ultimatum of three months to reach a deal. Juba, on its part, has said that it is ready to accept the African Union's seven-point plan. However, Khartoum wants more time to understand and analyse the fallout of any such deal. African Union is also expected to monitor the road map for the implementation of the plan once it is signed.

  

Nevertheless, the problem is bigger than it appears. The ruling SPML's actions are symptomatic of its revolutionary past. Since its inception, it has fought the then Sudanese army and its administration and thinks and acts more like militia than a ruling political party. After years of raising a hue and cry over the treatment of the South Sudanese by the North; when SPML came to power in South, its tactic of dealing with its own rebels was no different. 

 

Talking to TSI, Mahmood Mamdani, an East African expert based in Uganda, said, “When South Sudan was waging war for independence, it tried to muster new allies and hence allied with militias active in Darfur and South Kordofan against the common enemy that was the Sudanese army. However, on the ideological basis, these militias never shared SPML's vision of a separate state. It was an alliance of convenience. Following the independence of South Sudan, there was a split in SPML over the issue of South Sudan's continued assistance to the militias in Darfur and South Kordofan. A section of SPML maintained that since Sudan is a foreign territory now, they don't need to interfere. The other section wanted to continue the assistance as it viewed these militias as a strategic asset. This is symptomatic of
SPML's mentality.” 

 

And that largely explains why during every negotiation, while South Sudan wants the focus to remain on the sharing of oil assets and transit fee, Sudan first wants to demarcate the border properly. South Sudan's unwillingness to do so clearly indicates that it wants the border to remain unmarked and hence fluid. It is surprising how the international community can not see this. 

 

However, more than all this, the priority of the international community now is to stop a full-fledged war between the two nations. The tempers ran high as President Omar Al-Bashir recently said in Khartoum: “We say that (the SPML) has turned into a disease, a disease for us and for the South Sudanese citizens. The main goal should be liberation from these insects and to get rid of them once and for all, God willing. Either we end up in Juba and take everything, or they end up in Khartoum and take everything.” 

 

Eyebrows were raised on the use of the word “insects” as it reminded similar lexicon used by Hutu majority during the Tutsi massacre in Rwanda. Clearly, the international community is not taking any chances.

 

As this story goes to print, Russia and China are trying to bring both the sides on the negotiation table under the threat of UN sanctions. Both Khartoum and Juba showed willingness to reach to a deal and at least settle the matter for the time being. It was announced by the Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov after the first round of meeting with his Sudanese counterpart Ali Karti. "We have heard from our Sudanese colleagues that they are ready immediately to start talks, provided that South Sudan also responds to this," he was reported as saying.

 

It is expected that the threat of sanction will bring both the parties to the table. However, what is more important is 

the implementation of AU road map towards border demarcation and division of assets that will leave nothing in
fluid, thankfully.