Advantage BSP as Maya slices up

Uttar Pradesh chief minister Mayawati's announcement to divide the state into four smaller parts has sparked off a frenzy of speculation a few months before the assembly elections. The question people are asking: is the BSP supremo's move a master stroke which will establish her as a national leader as well as gurantee her hegemony over Uttar Pradesh?  In what took everyone including her main rival SP chief Mulayam Singh Yadav by surprise, the feisty UP chief minister got the reorganisation of the state bill passed in both houses of the state assembly by a voice vote without any debate or discussion. It has certainly taken the central government by surprise.  UP is the country's most populated state but in the last 64 years, development has  been uneven. For instance, Bundelkhand and eastern UP have not experienced the same pace of development as western UP has. Although the demand for small states is catching on, noone could quite predict Mayawati's latest move.

The most crucial aspect is its timing. The Assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh are due in 2012 and she has made the division of the state her main poll plank. Now, her rivals are on tenterhooks not knowing whether to support or oppose the proposal. According to the proposal, the state would be carved into into four smaller states – Purvanchal, Paschim Pradesh, Bundelkhand and Awadh Pradesh.

That the opposition is in a tizzy can be gauged from the contradictory statements made by opposition leaders.

Says Lok Dal leader Kaukab Hameed “We are sceptical about Mayawati's sincerity on the issue. If she were sincere about fulfilling the demands of people she would have got the bill passed years back. The way Mayawati has gone about it now done it now is shameful. It would be important to remember that Lok Dal has long been demanding a separate state of Harit Pradesh, constituted of a few dozen districts in western UP.

The other opposition parties such as the Bharatiya Janata Party, the Congress and the Samajwadi Party are not better placed either. They are too surprised to come up with a solid reason for opposing the division of the state. “Mayawati has suddenly come up with this proposal to re-constitute the state mainly to divert attention from corruption and rising number of crimes under her rule. The re-constitution of the state would only burden the exchequer and would do no good to the common man,” says BJP state president, Surya Pratap Shahi.

The opposition believes that when a new state is constituted, there will be differences on the issue of the division of property and other resources. This will  further give rise to disputes. There are huge mineral resources in the Bundelkhand and Purvanchal regions of the state. On the other hand, western UP has enough water resources and irrigation facilities. 

As per the present assessment, after the re-organisation, Purvanchal will have 29 districts, Bundelkhand will have 7, Paschim Pradesh will have 26 and Awadh Pradesh will constitute 13 districts. Demand for Bundelkhand is also rising in Madhya Pradesh. The idea is to merge 10 districts from Madhya Pradesh with those of seven from UP. Similarly, merging the Bhojpuri speaking regions of Bihar in the 29 districts of Purvanchal is also being considered. There is also a demand to include Rajasthan's Bharatpur and some other districts in Paschim Pradesh.

Those who support the creation of smaller states argue that smaller geographical entities will make administration easier and and there can be better monitoring of government projects. Those who oppose the idea feel that this will increase the cost of administration and the poverty and starvation conditions will further worsen. They quote the examples of Uttarakhand and Jharkhand in support of their argument. Smaller states are not politically very stable and attaining self-sufficiency is remains a problem. A number of newly formed districts in the Uttar Pradesh still do not have proper offices and residences for the officials. At some places, there is no jail either.

When and if the new states get constituted, out of the 403 Vidhan Sabha seats of UP, Purvanchal will get 177 seats, Bundelkhand 20, Paschim Pradesh 132 and Awadh Pradesh will get only 74 seats. Out of the 80 Lok Sabha seats, Purvanchal will get 35, Paschim Pradesh   28, Awadh Pradesh 14 and Bundelkhand will get three seats.

The matter of reconstitution of UP is with the central government now. It can constitute a commission that will also look into the issue of law and order, revenue matters, division of water resources etc. According to the Constition, the resolution passed by the UP Assembly is not binding on the central government. It can also recommend amendments in the resolution. “The proper way to go around this should have been to first form a re-constitution commission and then follow its recommendations. Re-constituting states is not a child's play,” says BJP leader and MLC, Om Prakash Singh.

While former BJP leader Kalyan Singh has no problem with the proposal, Samajwadi Party is totally against the idea. However, the Congress is treading cautiously. Its UP  leader Pramod Tiwari says that the centre is not against the re-constitution of the state. “The Centre is not opposed to the idea of re-constitution of states but it is of the view that a commission for this specific purpose needs to be constituted. Once the commission gives its recommendations, then the government can take the final decision on the issue,” he says. But the BSP supremo seems to have played a masterstroke that has the potential to catapult her to power once again. The BSP hopes to make substantial gains on the back of this announcement.

The division

Proposed State : Paschim Pradesh
Districts : 26
Assembly Seats : 132
Lok Sabha Seats : 28

Proposed State : Purvanchal
Districts : 29
Assembly Seats : 177
Lok Sabha Seats : 35

Proposed State : Awadh Pradesh
Districts : 13
Assembly Seats : 74
Lok Sabha Seats : 14

Proposed State : Bundelkhand
Districts : 7
Assembly Seats : 20
Lok Sabha Seats : 03