Now Look West

“The [Persian] Gulf region, like South Asia, is a part of the natural economic hinterland. We want to pursue close economic relations with all our neighbours in our wider West Asia neighbourhood. India has successfully pursued a ‘Look East’ policy to come closer to the countries of South East Asia. We must similarly come closer to our West Asian neighbours in the Gulf,” said Manmohan Singh at a meeting of Prime Ministers’ Trade and Economic Relations Committee in July 2005.

This is perhaps a true reflection of the need felt by the Indian Government to reach out to West Asia in a manner that could at least replicate if not outperform India’s successful “Look East Policy” in South East Asia. Although efforts have been made to carve out a cogent West Asia policy in the past, competing and conflicting dynamics in the West Asian region have prevented India in pronouncing a formal policy as such.

West Asia is a part of India’s extended neighbourhood and trade ties have traditionally formed the basic framework of India’s relationship with the region. The region is critical for India’s energy security as it provides more that 65 per cent of India’s oil and gas requirement. People to people contact have been on for centuries with the Arabian Gulf region, which has strong Indian communities. Over 6.5 million migrant Indians work in the region and contribute almost $35 billion in remittances, a significant portion of our GDP. However, in recent times, apart from trade and commerce, security issues like the threats of terrorism and sea piracy have become a common concern for both India and the West Asian region.

More recently the uprisings in the Arab world, popularly called as ‘Arab Spring’, have brought the region back in focus and exposed some of the critical fault lines in the region, which have threatened to not only alter the political dynamics but also the security balance in the region. Islamist parties are on the rise and are challenging the secular framework carved over decades by the regimes. Dictators in Egypt, Libya, Tunisia and Yemen have been overthrown while the Syrian civil war continues unabated. Gulf Monarchies like Saudi Arabia, Morocco, and Jordan have survived the uprisings by quickly and carefully modifying their governance models and appeasing the populace by doling out largesse.

India, with critical interests in the region, would always be directly affected by any developments in the region. A deteriorating security situation could have adverse effects on India’s core interests in the region - trade, energy and migrant workers coupled with the threat of spill-over effect of terrorism and the spread of religious fundamentalism. The ‘Arab Spring’ has clearly demonstrated how adversely India could be affected by instability in the region. In Libya, we had to evacuate over 6,000 personnel to safer areas overnight. The Syrian conflict has the potential to expand into a major regional conflict and could have major implications on Indian security interests. The expansion of influence of Al Qaeda in the region also threatens to spill over into the neighbouring countries posing a security threat for India. The United States has announced its rebalancing Strategy focussed towards Asia-Pacific region. The conflicts in Libya, Syria and Egypt as also the winding down of war in Afghanistan is a clear indication of the US reluctance to get directly involved in any military conflict in this volatile region.

This puts additional onus on India and the countries in the region to secure their respective national interests. Among other things, India will have to give a de novo look at its security engagements with the West Asian region and perhaps seek a more participative role in the security issues in the region. India has the advantage of being considered a benign power having no extra territorial ambitions and thus could leverage on it to promote ties in the region. As a regional power, India will have to secure its trade interests and national security well beyond the borders. Perhaps as a recognition of this realisation, Dr Manmohan Singh, while laying the foundation stone for the National Defence University in Gurgaon on 23 May 2013, said, “Our defence cooperation has grown and today we have unprecedented access to high technology, capital and partnerships. We have also sought to assume our responsibility for stability in the Indian Ocean Region. We are well positioned, therefore, to become a net provider of security in our immediate region and beyond”.

India’s role in the West Asian region would thus depend upon how it views its engagements and core national interests in the region. Also, its regional acceptability among all major stake holders as a reliable partner will be a crucial factor impacting India’s policies. Finally, the depth of India’s strategic vision in West Asia and willingness to commit resources will dictate India’s approach towards formulating a secure ‘Look West’ policy.