A Win So Uninspiring

Apart from a few token decisions on social front and a few economic ones with nuisance value, Hollande is expected to compromise and keep taking orders from Brussels, says Saurabh Kumar Shahi 

 

If there's anyone French President-elect Francois Hollande needs to thank, it should be Lady Luck. Consider this. Just an year or so ago, his name was not even in consideration. The socialists believed that a malleable Hollande, referred to variously as “pudding” for his mild manners, would be no match for the mercurial incumbent. Dominique Strauss-Kahn with his aggressive demeanour and go-getter attitude was considered as the true Socialist reply to Sarkozy's antics. That was before Strauss-Kahn gave a completely new twist to the words “aggressive” and “go-getter” and fell from grace. Hollande's name was proposed among others and somehow he managed to get
the consensus.

 

Even his win appears to be a fluke. Many analysts consider that the election ofHollande over Sarkozy was in fact, a race to chose between an extremely unpopular president and his extremely uninspiring opponent. The lack of enthusiasm was blatantly on display. Considering how unpopular Sarkozy was, it was suggested that even a scarecrow will bag more votes. Under the circumstances, the final tally of 51.7 per cent for Hollande to 48.3 per cent for Sarkozy was tad too close for comfort. In fact, analysts also suggest that the way Sarkozy reduced the gap in the last two weeks, it wouldn't have been surprising if he might even have levelled it if he had another week in hand. It is, therefore, essential to analyse what Hollande has in his kitty and what all can be expected from him in the days to come. 

 

The first and foremost will be economy. Foreign policy and social rhetoric sounds too good for the foreign TV audience, but for the domestic consumption, the only thing that matters is economy. And that has primarily been the electoral plank of Hollande. In fact, the experts suggest that his win has sent a curt message to the policy makers that voters are tired of austerity. His supporters maintain that his presidency will send a “thunderclap” across the Europe, frustrated by Germany-led demands for deficit reduction, austerity and financial orthodoxy.

 

Hollande has made an election promise to renegotiate the aforementioned European Union treaty. Contrary to German Chancellor Angela Merkel's ideas, Hollande wishes to inject more growth into the pact. But any attempt to strike a compromise, and not throwing away the pact altogether, will essentially lead to additional measures and that is not desirable. He also wants to cooperate with the fellow European head of states on this. And both the steps are anathema to Chancellor Merkel. In fact, Merkel has already started playing browbeat game and tried to dismiss any such idea by a curt reply early this week: “That’s just not on.”

 

Another issue is that Hollande cannot afford to look like compromising on core ideas at least before the upcoming legislative vote where he needs to win a majority unless he particularly enjoys being lame-duck, so to say. That essentially means no compromise until mid-summer. The question is, will the market wait till then? Vincent Deluard, French market analyst, thinks they will. “It is now obvious that Chancellor Merkel's choices are pretty limited at that. It is safe to assume that she'll probably succumb to her counterparts' demands and may as well agree for a bailout for her southern neighbours,” he told TSI.

 

And then, there is foreign policy realignment. The NATO Summit in Chicago is among Hollande's top to-do list items, including attending the G-8 summit taking place at Camp David. President-elect has already set the ball rolling by indicating that he'll go for early troops withdrawal from Afghanistan. France had 3,308 soldiers deployed in Afghanistan as this story goes to print, making it the fifth-largest contributor to the war effort. His insistence on withdrawing it by 2012 end will set bell ringing in DC and Kabul. 

 

But even this is a smaller concern compared to his still undeclared views on France's presence into the integrated command of NATO. Strategic analysts suggest that Hollande will not like to shake up the system; at least not in the near future. But he will definitely try to positively differentiate between the US and French foreign policy interests. 

 

Charles Cogan, strategic affairs analyst with a focus on the French role, maintains that “Sarkozy got an unlimited pass in the US political community because he was willing to undo what Charles de Gaulle, François Mitterrand and Jacques Chirac had so meticulously done and preserved all these years. That will change, no doubt.” But don't expect Hollande to act tough on Israel. He and his party has been an old pal of Tel Aviv and that will count in every decision. But that will be mercifully better than Sarkozy days. Hollande has been reported as saying in the past that he wants to boost NATO to return to its initial calling of collective security. So far so good. But that is the ideological standing. What practical steps can Hollande promise? Well, not much if you go by the track record. He is pretty clear that he won't trouble NATO over European Missile Shield that has put it in collision course with Moscow. Also, while he will be far less enthusiastic on military adventurism in west Asia and north Africa, it is hard to forget that he was a part of the bandwagon to attack Libya, lock, stock and barrel.

 

So it is pretty much clear that Hollande cannot be expected to shake up things at foreign and economic policy fronts apart from a tap on the wrist. That leaves social front. This is where Hollande is expected to appease his core voter base. The police is expected to act a tad less racial and draconian while dealing with immigrants. There would be a few concessions on gay marriages, including awarding them the right to adopt children, as well as probably moving a step closer towards allowing euthanasia. Compulsory medical cover and reservation in jobs for handicapped will also be enforced. But expecting anything more radical is laughable. 

 

And why accuse him only. The late Raymond Aron, the celebrated strategic expert during the Cold War days had famously described France as “a conservative country that dreams of revolution.” A country where a sizable chunk of voters can swing from ultra-right to centre-left in a matter of hours, needs to look within and contemplate. Keeping liberalism in discussion while taking orders from Brussels might solve the issue of appearances for the time being. But a chronically confused society will eventually get a chronically confused leader. Why fret? It is only deserving.