A primer on the sectors that will call the shots on Dalal Street in 2008...Bikram Jena analyses
TSI | Issue Dated: December 23, 2007
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For those who think the bull run is over, for those who feel that they have missed the bus, for those who are fighting it tooth and nail to cling on to the trail, here’s a tip from OSO's Shahrukh Khan – "Picture abhi baaki hai mere dost". There’s still enough left of this India growth story; and TSI gives the definitive solutions for raking in that promised moolah.
Let’s hear the voices first! “Infrastructure, Auto, Media, Banking are likely to be good sectors in 2008 from returns perspective,” avers Swapnil Pawar, Director, PARK Financial Advisors Pvt. Ltd. As mentioned before, Shahina Mukadam, Head Equity Research, IDBI Capital Market Services recommends, "My top 3 picks for 2008 are stocks in Infrastructure, Media and Real-estate.” As does R. Swaminathan, National Head of Mutual Funds, IDBI Capital, who puts forth his picks, “The companies, which depend on the economic growth under the following sectors infrastructure, capital goods, telecom, engineering and banking are expected to do better.”
Well, the epicentre of the entire buzz seems to be in the Infrastructure space. Take a look at the IPO’s, Infrastructure Funds or even the newspapers inundated with real estate advertisements, and you would feel that something big is brewing. “India’s economy is on the fulcrum of an ever-increasing growth curve. With the increasing population, and accelerated economic growth, the need for new and improved infrastructure is paramount. A lot of money is being pumped into building and upgrading roads, ports, and airports. Given these points, we believe that infrastructure has substantial upside potential,” avers S. Naren, Senior Vice President & Head of Equities, ICICI Prudential AMC. Let’s bring in the figures. $ 500 billion worth investments is what the sector will be pumped with as per the current Five Year Plan allocation. Moreover, considering the dearth of resources with the government, the Public Private Partnership model is being looked at and will ensure enough private participation. Another sector that will dominate the flavour for quite sometime is the telecom sector. If you find India’s top business houses like DLF, Parsvnath Developers et al, making a beeline in order to cash in on the sector then there’s definitely something to it. Currently India is the third largest telecom market in the world and is increasing by the day. The sector is adding on subscribers at a staggering rate and breaking all records. As per estimates the country’s telephone subscriber base will touch 500 million by the year 2010; but considering the breathtaking pace at which the subscriber base is increasing, it is expected that the figure will be breached well before 2010. The outlook for the future remains absolutely promising keeping in mind the strong growth trajectory in the mobile subscriber, considering the fact that rural India still remains quite under-penetrated, mobile service offering are getting cheaper by the day and telecom players’ massive pan-India rollout plans.
Enough is in store for the punters in the banking sector also. The coming few years will see tectonic shifts which will be driving the banking scrips. First of all, 2008 is the deadline for Indian banks to implement the Basel II norms, which would ensure better and stricter risk management procedures being adopted by Indian banks. Moreover, in the year 2009 the banking sector will be thrown open to foreign players to acquire Indian banks. This liberalisation would foster consolidation in the industry which is a positive thing for the sector. Moreover, the credit off-take in the economy is showing no signs of slowing down in the near future. It is expected that credit off-take will remain buoyant for the next 2-3 years and grow at a healthy 20-25%. There seems to be tremendous opportunity in the retail banking sector as it is expected to double by the year 2010. Suresh Nanda, Regional CEO, North & East, ING Vysya Bank, shares his views: "At this point of time, retail banking has a very bright future considering the growing purchasing power of Indian consumers. India has 400 million middle class consumers which are growing day by day."
Another segment which would add to the bottomlines of the banks is rural banking considering the fact that Indian banking is yet to reach the hinterland which is still untapped. Also, there exists a yawning demand-supply mismatch of credit in the rural areas.
India is home to one of the largest education markets in the planet with a staggering student base of 220 million. Moreover, out of the 1 million schools in India a meagre 2% are IT enabled which leaves companies like Educomp, NIIT that offer Internet driven education with a goldmine to cash in on. Sanjiv Gupta, CEO, BodhTree Consulting comments: “Education is among the fastest growing service sectors of the economy and it is becoming a powerful and very important personal attribute.” Moreover, one should not forget that 20% of the total funds outlay in the 11th Five Year Plan is for the education sector.
So, while the Sensex lingers in the backyards of 21,000, TSI has shown in this story how to dig around to find your million. TSI has given voices of the experts and hard hitting figures right in front of you; intelligently matching these TSI recommendations might just ensure that ever elusive million. In any case, when in doubt, just pick up the phone and shout, we'll be waiting on the other side for the bout.