Gujarat

Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi no longer represents just 6 crore Gujaratis. His canvas has become much, much wider after the Mumbai conclave of the Bharatiya Janata Party in end-May. He now talks about 120 crore Indians as he fancies himself as the country’s next Prime Minister.

But there could be many a slip between the cup and the lip, as his partyman LK Advani found to his dismay in 2009 although he offered to India the leadership of ‘Sardar Patel II’ (self-given title) as against a “weak” Manmohan Singh.
At this juncture it does seem that Modi’s ascent in his party as numero uno is a done thing.
However, there are factors that could be stumbling blocks for the “lion of Gujarat” as he roars on his way, he thinks, to the gaddi in New Delhi.

But before looking at what may thwart his ambition, there is the nagging question about Modi’s motives for his Mumbai shenanigans that forced party chief Nitin Gadkari to make a u-turn on allowing RSS pracharak Sanjay Joshi a role in the party. Why was Modi so keen on a coming-out party for himself in Mumbai when the 2014 Lok Sabha election is still some distance away?

Party insiders believe that Modi knows the first hurdle he must cross is the Gujarat state assembly election due later this year. Did Modi figure his projection as the party’s prime ministerial candidate for 2014 would boost his chances in the state assembly election? The message for six crore Gujaratis: “Re-elect me as Chief Minister in 2012 to ensure election of a Gujarati Prime Minister in 2014.”

With a full-fledged revolt by former Chief Minister Keshubhai Patel, the situation in the state is not what it was five years ago. Keshubhai could dent the party’s Patel support base. As before, the Congress may not be quite strong
or organised enough to take him on, but there are straws in the wind. The Gujarati press has become extremely critical of Modi.

There are serious allegations of corruption in CAG reports; the High Court wants Modi’s permission, so far denied, to prosecute his minister Purshotam Solanki for corruption; another minister Anandiben Patel, considered close to him, also faces corruption charge and his confidante Amit Shah, former Minister of State for Home, out on bail, has been ordered by the Supreme Court to keep out of Gujarat.

Besides, his Goebbelsian propaganda-built image as the development icon of the country has recently been punctured and is in danger of being completely deflated: Gujarat under Modi has dropped from 16th to 18th rank in literacy; from fourth to sixth rank in per capita income; its bloated claim of some $600 billion FDI since 2001 was rubbished by RBI figures that confirmed only $7 billion FDI for Gujarat as against $35 billion in Maharashtra; and statistics prove there is more hunger and malnourishment in Gujarat than even in the much-poorer Uttar Pradesh. And several states have out-performed Gujarat in bringing down infant and maternal mortality rates.

There are at least four other factors that may hamper Modi’s climb to the top of the political ladder. One, the Janata Dal (United) has more or less made it clear it will not accept Modi as the prime ministerial candidate of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance. Other regional players could keep their options open till after the 2014 election results before deciding which way to cast their lot, depending on the new Lok Sabha arithmetic.

Two, in the central BJP leadership there are not many who are happy about Modi as a possible lead actor in 2014. While LK Advani and Sushma Swaraj made known their displeasure at the Mumbai conclave itself – they kept away from the public rally where Modi was the star speaker – others know too well Modi’s autocratic style of functioning would reduce everyone to a “zero” while he alone would be the “hero”.

Three, some within the RSS believe Modi’s rise would render it irrelevant, as happened in Gujarat. Leaders of
some important RSS offshoots have publicly voiced their dislike for Modi.

And four, the courts have yet to pronounce on the SIT recommendation of closure of case against Modi. Is Modi’s eagerness to be projected on to the centre-stage in New Delhi two years before the Lok Sabha battle the result of some calculation this could deter the law from taking its own course? Justice may be blind, but the courts are not entirely oblivious of politics.