N KOREA : leadership

During the last one month, about 40 political leaders around the world have died, creating a leadership vacuum all across. Of them all, North Korean dictator Kim Jong Il's death has had the most powerful impact as it has sparked not only a fear of instability for North Korea but also for its neighbours in East Asia and the world at large. It has temporarily created a deadlock over the issue of succession – whether the transition would be smooth or not, and what would be its consequences for the world if the regime fails to hold together.

North Korea’s solution to such a problem has always been a hereditary succession. Following the trend, Kim Jong Il had nominated his youngest son, Kim Jong Un, to be his successor. But the situation is grimmer than it appears. The pressure on the young leader would be tremendous as senior leaders are already there in vital and powerful positions. Additionally, his lack of political experience and diplomatic links may create hurdles for him in near future.

Apparently, a ‘gang of four’ – the young Kim, his uncle, aunt and a senior general named Ri Yong Ho – seems to dominate the new power equation.

However, such a cartel might eventually lead to power struggle. There is also probability that old rift between the army and the party might resurface anytime and create political turmoil in the nation. Even a civil uprising cannot be ruled out, especially in view of the miseries the citizens have gone through for decades.

What keeps the nation high on worry list is that it possesses chemical and biological weapons and is striving to become a full-fledged nuclear power. In such a situation, a probable collapse of the Kim regime would mean an immediate threat to neighbouring nations.

However, the outside world can do very little other than wait and watch. Moreover, a potential rift might arise between China and US with respect to territorial invasion. For the uninitiated, a large US military base in South Korea, with around 30,000 soldiers, borders on North Korea, while China shares border with North Korea on the other side. At the moment, the world is hopeful for a smooth transition of power, or at least some delay in the collapse of the regime. But at present there seems to be no 'Plan B' in place if the Kim dynasty falls.