Unsustainable stability

 

 

The Presidents of Sudan and Chad have agreed to cease hostilities “in principle”. Yes, only in principle: for hardly had the words been uttered than the rebels, whom the pact officially aims to suppress, dismissed it as “meaningless”.

This, of course, is not the first time that Sudan’s President, Omar al-Bashir, and his Chadian counterpart, Idriss Deby, have “agreed” to cease warring – a war complicated by rebels of various stripes in the territories of both. (In Sudan they allege the country’s western part has been deliberately neglected to favour the Muslim North.)

Under the latest non-aggression pact a monitoring group, comprising foreign ministers from both the countries, will “ensure” that no more blood is shed.

But all privately doubt that any of this is for real.

Brokered by Senegal’s President, Abdoulaye Wade, on the sidelines of the Organisation of Islamic Conference (OIC) summit in the Senegalese capital Dakar the signing was watched over by the UN secretary-general Ban Ki-moon. While Ban clucked approvingly, most believe this was more for the sake of form and not because he thought a permanent solution had been found.

This – “sustainable stability” in the words of the French Ministry – was impossible in the absence of “normalisation of relations between Khartoum and Ndjamena.”

Both country’s capitals are in a capital mess. The Chadian National Alliance, part of a rebel coalition that attacked Ndjamena last month, laying siege to Déby’s presidential palace for two whole days, said: “This (the deal) doesn’t concern us.”

Janjaid militias, for their part, heap all the blame on Khartoum, which it accuses of violently crushing “this most just local rebellion”. In an interview to a London TV channel, one of its leading commanders, Mohammed Hamdan, for the first time sourced the militia’s weapons and orders to the Sudanese government. Hamdan said he took orders from al-Bashir at the latter’s home; and that his government had plied his group with cars and weapons. Indeed how fragile this so-called “peace pact” is became clear that same day.