The way forward

 

 

The joint statement in Sharm el Sheikh by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and his Pakistani counterpart, Syed Yusuf Raza Gilani, offers a way forward in the stalled Pakistan-India relations which have been in cold storage since the Mumbai terror attacks. “The significance of the joint statement lies in the fact that the two countries have agreed in principle to revive the dialogue that was suspended in November 2008,” Dr Hasan Askari-Rizvi, Pakistan’s top defence analyst told TSI.

But he said they had not agreed to return to the composite dialogue process. A decision on it will be taken only after the foreign secretaries’ meeting. India had retained the option of further delaying the talks, without rejecting the idea of holding such a dialogue.

Dr Askari-Rizvi rubbished the BJP’s allegations that Manmohan Singh had “surrendered” to Pakistan by de-linking terrorism with the composite dialogue. “Even if the Sharm el Sheikh statement talks about de-linking terrorism with dialogue, in case there is a major terrorist incident in India all the efforts made at Sharm el Sheikh will be neutralised. Even in the past India and Pakistan had agreed not to discontinue the dialogue because of terrorism. However, whenever a terrorist incident took place the dialogue was suspended. Therefore the BJP’s concern was misplaced and non-historical,” he said.

The Indian government’s policy of critical engagement, encouraged and guided by friendly powers such as the United States, seems to have provided enough space to the elected civilian government of Pakistan to prove its own credentials in the struggle against jihadis.

The detailed police investigations carried out by the Pakistan interior ministry was validated by international policing authorities and sent a strong signal to the Indian side of Pakistani intentions in this regard.

In the meanwhile, the military actions against Taliban in Malakand Division have allowed the Pakistani military to also claim credibility in its efforts against jihadis. The meeting between President Asif Ali Zardari and Manmohan Singh in Russia, followed by the one between the two prime ministers in Egypt, does show a way forward. However, there are bound to be further domestic and political hurdles in both India and Pakistan.

In India, the opposition is likely to continue its objections to the process started in Egypt and in Pakistan, and there will always remain questions about the military’s intentions.

Nevertheless, the two elected governments do appear to be sensitive to each other’s domestic difficulties, and this bodes well for the peace process. If we observe significant moves towards reconciliation in Balochistan over the next few weeks, we will know that Singh has gone out of his way to help his Pakistani counterpart. Singh allowed mention of Balochistan in the joint statement despite loud objections at home. “India has given a concession to Pakistan in order to strengthen the democratic institutions in Pakistan,” said Tauseef Ahmed Khan, Professor of Mass Communications at Federal Urdu University, Karachi and a leading political analyst.

“You will recall that the late Indira Gandhi too made such a concession to Pakistan in 1972 when the Simla Accord was signed, through not insisting that the country should give up the Kashmir issue because she wanted a stable democratic government in Pakistan,” he said. “The Sharm el Sheikh agreement has cornered the jingoistic elements in Pakistan, and to a certain extent in India,” he added.