Russia : Elections

Much before Putin announced his candidature for the 2012 Presidential election, a lot of politcal observers had guessed as much and also knew that his victory is inevitable. It is only a matter of time till Putin gets back at the helm once again after the elections in March 2012, not only because he is extremely popular as a leader but also because of the fact that Russia’s “managed democracy” keeps television under check and suppresses any genuine opposition. So his decision has hardly thrown up any surprise. Moreover, Putin is way ahead of the clans around him in terms of popularity, charisma and leadership traits – even though Putin’s United Russia was struggling to win majority in the parliamentary election.

Putin’s return to Kremlin would surely put an end to the speculations over who runs Russia. His first two stints (2000-2008) were critical for Russia as it was the time when the country needed someone who could bring stability. What has made him popular is the way Russia returned to stability under his authoritarian rule even after the messy transition to democracy in the mid 1990s.

However, the situation has changed drastically, and with the rise in oil and gas prices, the biggest energy producer Russia is on a way to prosperity. Besides, his naked power grab has received severe criticism back home particularly from the liberals. There seem to be two probable challenges for Putin. With the present economic conditions, Russia needs a reformer to curb massive corruption in the country and to liberalise the economy – someone which Putin is certainly not. The former Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev has warned that if Putin rises to claim the throne of president, Russia “could lose six years” due to probable stagnation. However, the words of the man appreciated by the West (for his greater role in dismantling the Soviet umpire) count for very little in his own country.

Secondly, this is the era of political engagement in world affairs while Putin has practised political disassociation and kept a distance from world powers which marked a continuation of sorts of the Cold-war. This ultimately portends a rough future for the nation in the face of dodgy foreign policy measures which symbolise the leader Putin.

Putin’s potential return to power would perhaps undo the good work done by Medvedev towards modernising the Russian economy. Medvedev not only worked towards improving trade relations with the rest of the world along with pursuing Russian membership in the World Trade Organization (WTO) – which is of very little interest to Putin – but also has been far more accommodative with the West (as well as rest of the world) than Putin ever was. However, the switch of power would mean that the leaders around the world would again have to get used to the prospect of dealing with the same man they have always found a hard nut to crack. The leaders in the West would be specifically worried considering the rounds of diplomatic talks in the past marked by decaying relations.