The Imran phenomenon

Imran Khan was already a legend because of his cricketing genius. His social work in building up a hospital open to all including the poor was widely appreciated. But in the political sphere he failed to make headway, despite strenuous efforts.

Now Imran is a political hero. How did this happen? His huge public rallies seem to be propelling him to the centre stage of Pakistani politics. In fact, it appears he is already there. Imran has come across as an honest politicians and one who does not indulge in petty politics. On the other hand, Pakistan’s seasoned politicians have suffered a sharp decline in their popularity and charisma. Nawaz Sharif is one of them and so is president Asif Zardari. 

The people of Pakistan are angry at the repeated intrusions of American airplanes (drones) and, on occasion, troops. The abduction by the Americans of Osama Bin Laden was seen as an incursion into Pakistan territory and an assault on its sovereignty. The last blow was of the 25 soldiers who were killed by a NATO strike. Imran Khan has been insisting that Pakistan’s sovereignty be protected. In doing so he has aroused Pakistani nationalism with the average Pakistani feeling that Imran is no American puppet and will  stand up for the country.

The problem for Imran is a lack of a party machinery. It is one thing to energize the voters and another to build a party structure that will select popular candidates and a manifesto which will attract the masses. Building a party structure is a hard thing which on past record Imran has not been able to achieve. Also, the machinery must be suitably adapted to the various diverse regions of Pakistan. Yet all this said and done, the fact remains that at the moment Imran has no viable alternative. The conventional politicians have exposed themselves and Imran is a new face and a legendry captain in cricket crazy Pakistan.

Much is made by Imran’s critics that he has converged with Pakistan’s religious right. Time will tell the extent of convergence and its strength.  It needs to be emphasised that sections of the religious right like the Jamaat-e-Islami are respected but do not poll many votes.
Pakistan is at the crossroads. It has long been a US ally. But that relationship has soured. Even in some of the ranks of the military. Popular anger against the Americans is palpable. Of course, the Americans will try and assuage Pakistani feelings though this will take some doing as there is an unprecedented bitterness against the US for attacks in Pakistan’s sovereign space and the killing of innocents. In the mean time, the American effort to tame the Taliban in Afghanistan is threatened by the apparent Pakistani conviction not to let NATO troops and supplies pass through Pakistan’s territory.

Over time the government and army may strike a deal with the US for more arms and greater care in their use of drone aircraft and other weapons. There is no sign of this happening soon. However, Imran is also aware that if the Taliban gets entrenched in Afghanistan it may also make incursions into Pakistan’s space. Also, with a well armed India on the other border, Pakistan needs the US to act as a facilitator for peace between the two.

Imran’s precise agenda is not clear. He has a very large following among the youth. But the question is what is his exact agenda on women and minorities? How will he resolve a major problem like Baluchistan? And most of all, how will he deal with the US which Pakistan need as an ally without appearing to surrender his militant position?

In fact this is the most basic challenge that Imran will face. He has little political experience in the bodies of governance. To make a solid new look regime he will have to very carefully balance the different minorities, the army, the ISI and others. This is the challenge for him to deal with Pakistan’s entrenched elite while simultaneously building on his mass base without accusations, especially after the honeymoon period of kowtowing to the Americans or too much to the religious right.

At the end of the day Imran will find that running a country like Pakistan is not easy. The alliances he makes and the policies he puts together directed at the poor will be the real test. It is relatively easy to be cricket’s golden boy. That does not require the political skills to make Pakistan a more viable state. To do this, he will have to negotiate fissures between communities, the army, business and the like.

But he has no choice. Mass rallies and some political machinery yet to be put in place may propel  Imran Khan to office. It is what he does there and how he does it that will ensure that he wins office and, more importantly, wins a broad spectrum of allies so that he can fulfil the dreams of his huge and growing support base. But politics is not cricket. 

(The views expressed by the author are personal)