Reds Run Riot

Celebrated Chinese war strategistSun Tzu spells out two broad strategies to defeat the enemies. Either you fight them head on and make the battle the decisive one, or keep patience and drag it so long that you tire your enemy out. It seems the masses of Thailand have chosen to adopt the later one. Thailand has had the dubious distinction of seeing the highest number of coups since its independence in 1930s– 18 to be precise.

Every time the rural belt and its robust middle class decided to send a party with democratic credentials to power, the combined might of military Junta, upper judiciary and the economic elites  has clamped down on the democratic process. But after all these years, the fatigue seems to have finally set in. The masses have sent a resounding victory signal and the Junta has conceded defeat, albeit reluctantly.  

 Years ago, when deposed Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra was being sent to exile, the supporters of opposition Democrat Party – a frontal group of the Junta itself – had come in thousands in their 'yellow' shirts to hoot him away. This week, when his sister Yingluck Shinawatra convincingly romped home, another set of people had gathered to cheer her up, albeit in 'red' shirts this time. From hooting out to cheering in, life has come full circle for Shinawatra family.
With almost all the votes counted, her Pheu Thai party has won a clear majority with 263 seats out of 500, well ahead of the ruling Democrats with 161. This huge majority will indeed boost Thailand's order in the short term and cut down the chance of interference by the military five years after it ousted Thaksin.

This triumph has come an year following brutal clampdown by the regime on the protests by Takshin's supporters. The clampdown had turned into a bloody mess that ended with the capital ablaze in a wave of arson attacks supposedly carried out by escaping protesters. But is the task complete? Are the challenges over? Far from it. To start with, Yingluck, a political novice, will have to bring together a deeply fractured society. She'll have to convince the masses who have not voted for her that she is their prime minister too. Her initial speeches give heart.

In a late night victory speech in Bangkok on Sunday, Ms Yingluck said: "I don't like to say that Pheu Thai has won, but I'd rather say the people have given the Pheu Thai party and myself a chance to serve them. There's still a lot of work to be done in the future, in terms of the well-being of the people and for the country's unity and reconciliation."

Clearly, somebody has given her a crash course in governance and statecraft. But the key issue remains. Will the elites accept the results this time? John Brandon of the Asia Foundation has a prediction. Talking to TSI, he says, “If there is one ambiguity that has been blown away by this result it's the fact that Thais have convincingly told the Junta to take a hike. We don't want you in civilian politics. As far as military is concerned, they have started realising that these guys are going to keep getting re-elected and we better find a way to work with them.”

The going for the opposition Democrat Party and its leader Abhisit Vejjajiva has become tougher. Not only has his party been mauled convincingly, his standing as an administrator has also taken a hard beating. His party, with traditional support in Bangkok and the south, has not won a general election in nearly two decades. He needs to reinvent.