Pakistan government in a fix

The fragile democratic government of Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gilani is in a fix after it was revealed that American citizen Raymond Davis is a CIA spy and worked for a private security firm XE, now called Blackwater, after he retired from the US army where he worked in Special Forces.

“The American who shot dead two men in Lahore, triggering a diplomatic crisis between Pakistan and the US, is a CIA agent who was on an assignment at the time,” the prestigious Guardian newspaper revealed.

“A number of US media outlets learned about Davis’s CIA role but have kept it under wraps at the request of the Obama administration. A Colorado television station, 9NEWS, made a connection after speaking to Davis’s wife. She referred its inquiries to a number in Washington which turned out to be the CIA's. The station removed the CIA reference
from its website at the request of the US government,” the Guardian newspaper reported.

Already facing massive unemployment and an inflation rate of 22 per cent, the people of Pakistan, especially the youth, are agitating against Davis who is now imprisoned in Kot Lakhpat Jail in Lahore amid tight security.

Reports indicate that the people he killed in “self-defence,” Faizan Haider, 21, and Muhammad Faheem, 19, were ordinary thieves with stolen cell phones and were 30 feet apart from Davis when he had to stop at a traffic signal in Lahore.

“Pakistan and not Raymond is our priority,” said Prime Minister Gilani on Tuesday. He went on to say that that the court verdict on Davis would be respected.

“If anything of immunity arises in future, it can be determined by the court of law,” he is reported to have said. However Gilani hastened to add, “We are mindful of our international obligations.”

There is nothing but chaos in Pakistan. People are looking for a new leadership because both Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) and Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) have been tried twice and have miserably failed to deliver the goods. The tug of war between the two major parties is nothing but a game of musical chairs.

Citing a 2009 British Council report, eminent American scholar Prof. Stephen Cohen, an authority on Pakistan, has said half of all Pakistanis are below the age of 20 and two-thirds have yet to reach their 13th birthday.

“The current urban population is about 56 million, having increased from 17 per cent in 1951 to 35 per cent in 2005,” Cohen said. “Only half of Pakistan’s children go to primary school, a quarter to secondary school, and just five per cent receive any higher education,” Cohen said.

“On its creation, Pakistan had one university with 600 students; it now has 143 universities with one million students,” he added.

Davis is essentially facing the wrath of these students. Having failed to provide them employment, the government of Prime Minister Gilani faces a paradoxical situation: On the one hand the United States has funnelled military and civilian aid to Pakistan to the tune of 15 billion dollars after 9/11 and the country is not even capable to make its budget without assistance from the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. On the other hand, it cannot afford to ignore the sentiments of millions of youth are unemployed and angry and who demand that Davis should be hanged.

“At the moment chances appear to be slim for the release of Davis because the government of Pakistan is too scared to face street agitation, therefore, it will look forward for some compromise formula with the families of those killed which will take some time,” Pakistan’s top defence analyst and scholar Dr. Hasan Askari-Rizvi told TSI.

Interestingly, there had been no drone attack since January 23 when Davis was arrested. Many analysts feel it was a “goodwill gesture” from Obama administration that is bent upon proving that Davis is
a “diplomat” and thus enjoys diplomatic immunity.

There is immense pressure by the US administration on Chief of the Army Staff, General Ashfaq Pervaiz Kayani, to open another front against al-Qaeda and the Taliban, but he is reluctant and wants to consolidate the gains of the military operations in the Swat valley. Having fought three unproductive wars with India, Pakistan obviously looks with suspicion towards its neighbour.

Responding to a question from this scribe, Cohen, whose lecture this correspondent attended in Karachi at the Pakistan Institute of International Affairs in 1989, said: “I think there will be no major war between India and Pakistan now that they are nuclear, but this does not rule out more Kargils or wars flowing from miscalculation. I wrote about this in a book, "Four Crises and a Peace Process", published a few years ago. My co-authors were PR Chari (India) and PI Cheema (Pakistan), but we’re not infallible.”

The US administration, too, faces a paradoxical situation: On the one hand it wants to boost its relationship with Pakistan that provides logistic support to the sole super power in the “war on terror” in Afghanistan; on the other it faces growing  anti-American feelings in Pakistan.

The Obama administration is trying to pursue its relationship with the ruling PPP with a strategy of “carrot and stick” and secure the release of the former CIA spy and woo PML(N) leadership that has given a 45 days ultimatum to the fragile PPP government.

“There is a strain in the relationship between Pakistan and the United States. Both sides are trying to manage this crisis but the possibility of greater snags cannot be ruled out,” Dr. Rizvi said.

Asked if he sees a backlash if Davis is released, Dr. Rizvi observed: “In Pakistan, it being an Islamist state, political far-right, including opposition parties are waiting for the release of Davis for staging the agitation to pull down the Pakistan government.”

Pakistan establishment finds it difficult to handle the volatile situation in Khyber Pukhtoonkhwa bordering Afghanistan, and Balochistan bordering Afghanistan and Iran. “The situation is critical in 10 districts of Balochistan,” the Inspector General of Frontier Corps (FC), a paramilitary force is reported to have said recently.

Many conspiracy theories are doing the rounds in Pakistan at present. The most prominent one being that the United States wants to disintegrate Pakistan. But given the ethnic, sectarian and class divide, the alarm is not without reason. The “Great Game,” it seems, is being played at a higher plane. With its strategic location, several powers, including the US, United Kingdom, France,  Russia, Saudia Arabia, India and Iran etc have stakes in Pakistan – particularly in Balochistan and Khyber Pukhtoonkhwa.

The US, that is fighting a lost war in Afghanistan and Pakistan, too has stakes in that impoverished country. In fact, nobody is sure which power is behind a suicide attack or a blast in Afghanistan or Pakistan. 

Davis is also suspected of having links with the Taliban because the material found in his possession has nothing to do with the activities of a diplomat. In this regard, Guardian's observation is: “The Pakistani suspicions about Davis’s role were stoked by the equipment police confiscated from his car: an unlicensed pistol, a long-range radio, a GPS device, an infrared torch and a camera with pictures of buildings around Lahore,”