Nepal: Trouble is not over

The results of elections in Nepal have further complicated the already bad situation. While no party is expected to get absolute majority, Maoists under the leadership of Prachanda are already up in arms to pull the country further into political uncertainty for the results have given them a shocking result. 

 

India and Nepal have a special relationship. It is not just a matter of 1751 kilometer-long porous border, free of visa regime. It is much more than that which only Nepal and India can appreciate. There is much to share in terms of culture, religion and traditions and that too from time immemorial. With the way confusion is rising it will not be good for India and Nepal as well if some third country with its ulterior motives extends to resolve the problem for Nepal. 

 

It was expected that no party was to get an absolute majority. But the issue gets complicated by what came as a surprising decline of the Communists in the mainstream politics. 

 

The Maoists, led by Pushpa Kamal Dahal ‘Prachanda’, have performed poorly in the 19 November election to choose a 601-member Constituent Assembly (CA) that will draft the land-locked mountain state’s new constitution. Prachanda lost the election from the Kathmandu Constituency 10 (though he contested the election from another seat as well) and his daughter was defeated too. Clearly, the Maoists have had their nose rubbed in the dirt. The people’s discontent with UCPN(M) can be further gauged as Hisila Yami, senior leader and spouse of former Prime Minister Baburam Bhattarai also lost the election. 

Nepali Congress with a win on 105 seats has emerged as the leading party after counting of votes for 240 seats under the direct election system. CPN-UML followed the NC with 91 seats and the Unified CPN-Maoist, the largest party in the previous Constituent Assembly has been reduced to the third position with 26 seats. While two independent candidates also won, the Madhes-based parties got 12 seats in the direct voting system.

Proportionate voting will elect 335 members and the remaining 26 will be nominated by the government. Altogether 10,709 candidates from 122 political parties are contesting under the PR system. The 335 seats will be divided among the 122 competing parties according to the proportion of the total votes each party gets. Any party reaching the total of 301 seats will get an absolute majority. In last elections in 2008 the Maoist party was the largest. 

 

The poor performance of the United Communist Party of Nepal is not a matter to worry but their reaction to it with questions being raised by them on the fairness of elections held, is for it has a potential to again take the Nepal into the chaotic and violent past from which it came out in 2008 after a decade long unfortunate period of death, violence and mayhem. It will be unfortunate as it will throw the country in to worst economic devastation, extermination of industrial base and reeling round of killings, kidnappings and destruction. The people are already largely in a bad state. 

 

Communist Party of Nepal got divided, with Mohan Baidya heading the faction of 33 parties, has been calling to resort to peoples movement. And now that even Prachanda with his supporters contemplating not to participate in country’s government formation will aggravate the already volatile condition.

 

To remind to our readers Nepal went in for a second round of Constituent Assembly elections because the first Constituent Assembly was unable to finalise a Constitution. During this period there was hardly any step taken to write the constitution. This period saw lots of activities like Change of Prime Ministers, Promises not fulfilled and then the peoples representatives rarely sat in assembly to fulfill the mandate of framing the constitution. This had weaned away the faith of the common people. The significance of these elections from the Indian viewpoint cannot be overstated as it may spill its problems leading to strategic and geo strategic ramifications. The last Constituent Assembly basically failed because they could not agree on core issues like the question of federalism, the structure of the government, whether the government should have presidential or parliamentary prime ministerial form, or a mixed system.

 

The peace process in Nepal began in 2005 with the discussions between the late Girija Prasad Koirala (four-time Prime Minister of Nepal) and the Maoists. These talks resulted in the Comprehensive Peace Agreement of 2006. However, nothing concrete happened as it has to culminate in a new Constitution.

 

The few forward steps of the past constituent assembly were Nepal disbanded the People’s Liberation Army. The Maoists laid down their arms. Eligible ex-combatants joined the Nepalese Army. 

 

Contradicting Prachanda the Election Commission (EC) of Nepal has already made it clear that Assembly election held on November 19 concluded in a free, fair, impartial and credible manner. The results for the Proportional Representation System are eagerly awaited. Madhesh Factor has dwindled as they have performed poorly in the FPTP system. 

 

Under Proportional Representation System, CPN-UML is leading

 

The magic number to form a government in Nepal is 301 which is an absolute majority mark. The two prominent persons who have the maximum expectation to be the prime ministerial candidates are Nepali Congress president Sushil Koirala and senior leader of CPN-UML Madhav Kumar Nepal. 

 

The international community should impress upon the political leaders to help the elected members to form a government. With a government the reconstruction will begin. it will be boosting the economy and improved condition of the citizens of Nepal.