Mousavi retreats

 

 

This was probably the most tumultuous fortnight in Iran since emperor Shah Reza Pehlavi was ousted in 1979. The weeks witnessed huge rallies by pro-Mousavi supporters wearing green bands protesting the outcome of the result where President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was elected for a second term.

The single-theme rallies, where crowds appeared dwindling with each passing day, nonetheless, forced supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, to lead the Friday prayer. The crowd that attended matched what had gathered for Mousavi on the first day of protests. As Khamenei showed his unusable right hand to the people and remembered how he lost it fighting “enemies of the nation”, thousands wept silently. Khamenei displayed that apart from the vast powers he enjoys, he had a sizable presence in cities as well; something the western media was loath to admit.

As Khamenei endorsed the results, Mousavi and his backers became cautious and during the following weekends, substantial calm prevailed in Tehran. No protest rallies were organised and street demonstrators appeared to have melted in the shadows. The action saw at least 20 protesters dead and close to 500 arrested.

The government-run media quoted the police as saying it could be the work of vandals and terrorists who might have infiltrated the ranks of protesters. To buttress their claim, they say that torching of a mosque was an outside job as that was something even the fiercest opponent of the regime would not have dared. True to form, the city became largely protest free following a warning from the Revolutionary Guards. The Guards – an elite force set up in the wake of the 1979 revolution – threatened a “decisive and revolutionary” riposte to any further unrest. As far as protestors were concerned, the writing was on the wall.

This is now no more a fight between Ahmadinejad and Mousavi. There is a larger game being played. According to insiders, most of Mousavi’s support and clout comes from former president, Ali Rafsanjani, who ruled the country for eight years before being trounced by Ahmadinejad in the last elections.

It is no secret that during his reign, Rafsanjani was charged with financial impropriety. “He allowed leniency in films and music that made his core constituent – youth, urban elite and diasporas happy. However, the poor and rural youth despised his luxuriant lifestyle,” says Ali Mashhadi, a political expert, to the TSI.

By trying to topple Ahmadinejad, Rafsanjani wants to send a message to Khamenei that he too is not beyond reach. Theoretically, as head of the ‘assembly of experts’, he has powers to impeach Khamenei.

The government was expected to retaliate, as indeed it did. It came as no surprise therefore that following her participation at a pro-Mousavi rally, daughter of Rafsanjani, Faezeh, was arrested along with four other members of the family and later released. Meanwhile, Mujahideen-e-Khalq, an outfit suspected of fuelling street bloodshed, has been banned. Many of its operatives are active from hideouts in the UK. Analysts in Tehran argue that western regimes, including the US, have been monetarily and logistically financing regime change in Iran. In 2007, Bush met with the congressional and senate leaders and sanctioned $ 400 million for, “activities ranging from spying on Iran’s nuclear programme to supporting rebel groups opposed to the country’s ruling clerics….”