Madam mulls over maya

 

 

The results of the Gujarat and Himachal elections have the Congress worried. In a matter of a few days, poll results in these states point to a disturbing trend, the Dalit factor is costing the Congress dear. In the two states, the BSP may not have managed to win a seat itself, but it has ensured that the Congress has lost some crucial seats by relatively slim margins. The critical question therefore: Is the BSP eating into Congress’s Dalit vote bank?

That is now a nagging worry for the lieutenants of Sonia Gandhi. An internal assessment made by the Congress after the elections in these two states has surmised that if the march of the Elephant continues as it has been doing, there is real trouble ahead for them in the four states going to polls later this year and then the Lok Sabha, slated for 2009.

The Congress’s Review Committee has come to the conclusion that it was because of the BSP that about two-thirds of those seats which Congress was sure to win, were lost with the entry of BSP in the poll fray. And should the BSP repeat the same in Delhi, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, going to polls later this year, then the portents for the Lok Sabha are far from reassuring.

The first admissions from the Congress have confirmed the prevailing fears in the party. Senior Congress leader, Veerappa Moily, Chairperson of the Oversight Committee set up by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, to find means for the proper implementation of the proposed 27 percent reservation for OBCs in higher educational institutions, accepts that the BSP was the main cause of their defeat in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh. But he told TSI that “taking lessons from this defeat, Congress will try to come out of it at the national level.” That in itself is a significant admission to make.

The General Secretary of Himachal Pradesh Congress, Kuldip Rathore, believes that the entry of BSP cost them dearly. Rathore told TSI that the “Congress got 2 percent lesser votes than the previous election and it is out of power. Whereas, the BSP got about 8 percent votes culled from the Congress.” Analysts believe the tension between the two parties are now coming to the boil. It was evident last week when Mayawati pulled the first punch at a press conference accusing the Congress of planning to kill her. The key question: Is her outburst aimed at keeping the Dalits emotionally charged against the Congress?

Motivated by its rousing win in Uttar Pradesh, BSP has begun beefing up its organisational set-up by a series of strategic alliances with disaffected but important Congress and BJP leaders in different states. The BSP says that even though it was unsuccessful in winning seats in both the states, its mass base is increasing. National General Secretary of BSP, Mansingh Maneda says, “Our vote bank has increased ten times as compared to previous elections in Himachal Pradesh and by eight times in Gujarat (see box). This success is more than what we expected. Mayawati is eyeing India’s Dalit vote. Apart from Muslims, Dalits and Brahmins are seen as the only three all India castes and Mayawati is keen to build an alliance around all the three. The BSP has already organised ‘Brotherhood Committees’ and caste-based gatherings to strengthen the organisational set-up. Party leaders say that Mayawati is not just organising the Dalits but importantly, also converting them in favour of BSP. At a review committee meeting held in Lucknow after the elections of Gujarat and Himachal, Mayawati has reportedly expressed surprise at the low Dalit turnout in both the states and has directed those in charge in these states to examine why that happened.

There are 30 percent Dalits in Himachal and 8 percent in Gujarat. Mayawati, who was hopeful of making a dent in the Reserved seats, has since these elections, adopted aggressive posturing against Congress. According to BSP calculations, if she succeeds, it may adversely affect the outcome of elections for the Congress in the four states expected to go to polls later this year.

According to them, the Bahujan movement is quickly gaining adherents in the district of Chambal and the Bundelkhand region of MP bordering UP. Worried local Congress leaders have sent video films of the gatherings to their central leadership. Says the President of Madhya Pradesh BSP, Bhujbal Singh Ahirwar: “Our vote bank is either bought or stopped from reaching the polling booth. But with upper caste joining in, that trend is going to change.” Dalits are the traditional vote bank of Congress. But since the rise of BSP in 1984, Dalits have gravitated towards the BSP, leading to drastic losses for the Congress, particularly in critical UP. Chandrabhan Prasad, a well known purveyor of Dalit politics, confirms it. Prasad told TSI: “The rise of BSP will definitely affect Congress. The extent of this loss could only be known in the time to come,” adding that “it is possible that Congress may get totally wiped in some states because of BSP.”

Dalits constitute 16 percent of the total population of the country and they are beginning to get organised with suitors headed by the BSP making a beeline for them. Chief Ministers of Congress ruled states are apprehensive. In Delhi’s municipal elections in 2007, the BSP won 17 seats and came second on 18. Sensing the danger, Sheila Dixit immediately raised the status of Dalit leader and Minister Rajkumar Chauhan and made him the second most powerful man in the Delhi government.

The Congress government in Haryana has already announced several development schemes for the Dalits in quick succession. These schemes included the appointment of cleaners and houses for very poor. Not to be left behind, the Central government has followed suit.

Although the BJP is happy that the BSP is hitting the Congress, it does not want to be seen lagging in its efforts to entice Dalits. The MP government’s recently published book on completing four years in power, is largely devoted to the theme of ‘Dalit awakening’. It took 23 years for the BSP to transform itself from a ‘loser’ to a `winner’, but apparently Mayawati wants to cover that journey to Raisina Hill a lot less quicker, the only obstacle in its way being the Congress, which Mayawati is keen to neutralise as soon and as best as she can. ‘We will form polling booth committees”

Rampal Singh, Member, BSP National Executive Committee and in charge of Gujarat, tells TSI that both the Congress and the BJP are BSP’s enemies.

What did you need to get success in Gujarat and Himachal as per your expectation?

Our votes were bought. In Gujarat the voter I Cards of people were kept away by paying them money. At many places they were not allowed to cast their vote.

The political parties are of the view that dalit vote can be bought. Has BSP made any plan to stop that?

We will form committees at the polling booth level which will keep an eye on the purchase of votes and distribution of alcohol. This committee will educate dalits about their voting rights. We could not succeed in Gujarat because we did not form this committee there.

Your activities harm the Congress and help the BJP.

Both are our enemies. One is a viper and the other cobra.

Keeping future elections in mind, do you have any plan of joining hands with any party?

No, the BSP will contest alone. As far as question of making compromises is concerned we can of course go for post poll alliance.

There are allegations that majority of BSP candidates in Gujarat and Himachal were from Congress, thus it got the Congress vote bank?

This is baseless allegation. People vote for us for our ideology, not because of any particular person.