Lost in London

 

 

n 1974, Ted Heath famously asked the question, “Who governs Britain?” It is not a bad question to ask the day after the 2010 general election.

The first decision has come from Gordon Brown. Despite losing seats, despite coming second, he has chosen not to resign. He has instead paved the way for cross-party negotiations to begin by allowing civil servants to “support” the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats in any talks they may have.

If Brown had resigned, Cameron would have gone directly to Buckingham Palace and a minority government would have been formed.

The prime minister’s aides and ministers are making it very clear that they believe some kind of deal with the Liberal Democrats is possible, a kind of anti-Tory “progressive alliance” with an agreement on electoral reform at its heart.

The ball thus moves to Nick Clegg’s side of the court. He says he will stick by his campaign promise to allow the party with the most seats and votes – thus the Conservatives – to have the first right to seek to government.

He says, “It is now for the Conservative Party to prove that it is capable of seeking to govern in the national interest.” In other words, what are you offering, David Cameron? Clegg is not saying that he will never talk to Labour or do a deal with them, just that he will talk to the Tories first. He will listen to what Cameron offers him and take it to his party tomorrow. He will not move fast.

The Liberal Democrats will not want to do much with the Tories unless proportional representation is on the table. Remember that Clegg will have to take his party with him; he cannot operate alone in these talks. Legitimacy Question

So what may David Cameron have in his goody bag to offer the Liberal Democrats? Well, they have some policies that cross over – both parties for example want a so-called pupils’ premium to support educationally deprived children.

But the Tory leader will have to tread carefully over any discussions about proportional representation (PR). Many Tory MPs would strongly oppose any deal that paves the way for PR. One possible option could be the promise of a referendum on PR, with the Tories reserving their right to oppose it.

But even that would be step too far for some Tories. One told me, “The party offering PR has just come third in this election. Why should we agree to something the voters have rejected.” Some Tories might, however, tolerate fixed-term parliaments, another long-term aim of the Liberal Democrats. For now, Cameron’s aides are ruling nothing out and promising to be constructive.

If the Liberal Democrats and Tories do secure a deal, Brown would have to resign. He would know that in a few weeks he would not be able to command the confidence of the House of Commons. But if there is no deal, then the Liberal Democrats and Labour would talk.

Any Liberal Democrats-Labour deal would depend entirely on legitimacy. How could they sell a government to voters that would not be seen as a coalition of losers? They would argue that there is a majority opposed to the Tories and that they – as a coalition – have a mandate. But this would be a hard sell. As my taxi driver said this morning, “So the Tories got most votes and most seats. So why haven’t they won?”

The ultimate arithmetic will matter. But then the talks had already begin.