Lines Drawn for a Battle Royale in HP

 

 

An hour from Shimla lies the idyllic night resort of Kariaghat. With assembly elections less than three weeks away, the manager of the Himachal Tourism hotel, Narendra Pandey, tells us that the state does not usually encourage two terms for a political party. “Since the salad days of the Congress before 1967”, electoral battles here have seen the winner barely scraping through, he says.

For the BJP, out in the cold for five years, that can only be good tidings. On Shimla’s Mall, BJP activist Raghu Dhiman struts around with pictures of the presiding deities of the saffron brotherhood, Vajpayee, Advani, Murli Manohar Joshi and others. “The Congress misrule is about to end. Enter Prem Kumar Dhumal,” he declares.

Like everything else about the state, the election campaign is languid. This state, which boasts one of the highest development indices in the country, goes about the polls without the usual bluster. The crowds are manageable – there is no large flat ground for massive rallies. The electorate is comparatively tiny too, a little over 46 lakhs. Candidates respect EC guidelines and barring a chief minister or an opposition leader, they move around in a lone car with just an escort.

Typically, in Himachal Pradesh, development tops every party’s agenda. Irrigation Minister, Thakur Kaul Singh, addressing a crowd in Kangra, lists his achievements: college opened, schools and an ITI set up, etc. In Mandi, BJP’s Shanta Kumar, a former chief minister, unveils his party’s agenda: “We will take steps to ease unemployment and offer better opportunities for the youth.” Youth is understandably the big factor. Of the 46 lakh plus voters, 30 percent are in the 18 to 28 age group. Since the last assembly elections in 2003, five lakh new voters have been added. Trouble is 7 to 8 lakh young voters are unemployed. Chief Minister Vir Bhadra Singh, though up against the anti-incumbency factor, points out that Dhumal is already behaving like a chief minister. “Shimla is a long way away from the BJP,” he told the TSI, before addressing a Youth Congress meeting in Solan.

Analysts believe the Congress made certain rash promises that they have been unable to fulfil. BJP chief ministerial hopeful Dhumal, who headed a BJP government between 1998 to 2003, told TSI he would not make any promise which the party is unable to deliver.

Analysts corroborate what Dhumal says. “Vir Bhadra’s announcement of one job per family is makes for a great poll promise but is hard to fulfil,” says Gyan Sharma of Shimla University’s political science department.

It is obvious that the Congress is on the defensive. Vir Bhadra Singh, besides blaming the BJP for divisive politics, is on the warpath against the Election Commission. “I was abroad and the EC decided to make an unilateral announcement. This can lead to a constitutional crisis,” he told TSI. The chief minister hasn't had enough time to prepare for the polls. But the Congress is banking on Sonia and Rahul, who are expected to begin campaigning on December 11.

Now, for the first time in Himachal, the BSP is making its presence felt. Mayawati has picked upon BJP and Congress rebels. Her trump card is Major Vijay Singh Mankotia, the Congress rebel campaigning relentlessly against the chief minister. Mankotia says, “We may not be able to win, but we can certainly scuttle the chances of those who are winning.” A battle royale awaits Himachal on December 19. As Mansa Ram, a tea owner in Solan’s Tarla Ghat says: “The battle will be on a sword’s edge. Hard to say who will win.” Wait for the count on December 28. “Political witch hunt does not help”

Prem Kumar Dhumal, BJP chief ministerial candidate

Prof. Dhumal has emerged as the BJP candidate for the top post, moving finally out of the shadows of veteran Shanta Kumar. He spoke exclusively to TSI, What are the main issues in these elections?

There are many issues, among them is rampant corruption. The siphoning off money from government schemes, Congress-sponsored corruption in the hydel sector, unemployment and other issues linked to misgovernance.

If you come to power, will you institute an inquiry?

Witch hunts are counter-productive. But cases are on in courts against the chief minister. The law will take its natural course.

What about dissidence?

It is tough to keep everyone satisfied. I can count the dissidents on my fingers. There's no problem in the long run.

The CM has accused you of already behaving like a chief minister.

You have seen me. I am what I always have been. There is no question of behaving like someone else.

What about the BSP factor?

If BSP hits anyone, it will be the Congress, not us. The BSP is looking to poach the Dalit vote bank that the Congress claims it has. “EC has created constitutional crisis”

Vir Bhadra Singh, Chief minister

Chief Minister Virbhadra Singh is a man under siege. Fighting tough anti-incumbency, he is confident that the Congress is returning. He tells TSI that the Election Commission has created a constitutional crisis in Himachal by calling for early elections.

The Congress is at the receiving end in this election.

So says the BJP and its poll analysts, but let me tell you that it is not as easy as the BJP thinks. They have a communal and sectarian strain and they are trying to exploit it to the best of their advantage.

But Himachal never returns a party to power?

That is going to change this time. There is anti-incumbency, but the Congress is competent enough to ride it out. Soniaji will campaign for the party from November 11 and you will see the difference then.

You have been attacking the EC. Please comment.

The Commission has created a constitutional crisis in the state. The decision to hold elections in December was announced without taking the state government into confidence. I was abroad holding discussions with a World Bank team when the EC made the announcement. Now if a new government is elected and I intent to continue as the CM till March 9, there is no legal provision to remove me from the chair. In that eventuality there will be two elected governments in the state.