Leadership vacuum

When analysts coined ‘TINA’ factor, they overlooked the historically-proven theory of vacuum of leadership. This rule states that no matter what, a leadership vacuum never stays long. There is a threshold of public perception and tolerance. Once that threshold is crossed, then leadership emerges automatically.

Many times it’s faceless, as we are watching it unfold across the Arab spring. Sometimes it emerges in the form of extremely low profile understated faces and are overnight blown out in larger than life figures. Meet Anna Hazare. Then there is a very interesting angel of social and political leadership. Many believe they are unrelated, but not in India where long before Gandhi, social leadership was always stronger than political leadership. The kings used to fear not enemies, but scantily clad sadhus and fakirs, who were revered by the masses because they had no hidden agenda for personal gains.

So, we all loved Sonia when she gave up the post of Prime Minister (PM). We loved PM Manmohan Singh because we believe he is personally not corrupt.  While Indians were getting angry and restless about corruption and inflation, they still regarded these two as spotless figures doing nothing wrong personally, even though a majority felt that the government they ran is inept and many of their colleagues corrupt.

Then came Baba Ramdev but somehow people were only partially convinced of his fight against corruption. But then came Anna and the paradigm changed. Here was a man who was not trying to gain anything for himself, was non-political, was not against any party but the “system” and was closest to the leadership they could believe in. The vacuum was filled overnight.

This anti-corruption wave is “anti-Congress” but to be dead sure, it is not for the BJP either. This wave is microscopic in nature and anti-corruption at large. So while it is hitting Congress at the macro-level, it is also hitting the other parties at the micro-level. Electorally speaking, it is helping non-Congress parties at large, especially in all Congress-ruled states.

But, don’t be surprised if the BJP/NDA get hit at the state level, most remarkably in Karnataka followed by poll-bound states of Punjab and Uttarakhand, where change in leadership is too little too late.

In these states, Congress is gaining by-default of being the principal opposition party. If Bihar is rock-solid behind JDU-BJP due to clean images of Nitish Kumar and Sushil Modi, it is totally reverse in Jharkhand, where the anti-corruption sentiment is making waves against the BJP-JMM combine, the only beneficiary being JVM courtesy the clean and honest face of Babu Lal Marandi.

In Uttar Pradesh, Mayawati is feeling a similar heat. Chief ministers with relatively clean images are better placed in their states including Bihar, Orissa, Chattisgarh, MP, HP and Gujarat.

In Tamil Nadu, Amma is seen relatively cleaner than Karuna clan at the moment. In Kerala the Left revival is solely dependent on clean image of Achuthanandan and the matter of fact is that if Lok Sabha elections are held today, the CPM will have more MPs from Kerala than from West Bengal.

The Congress is in for big trouble as far as Andhra, Maharashtra, Kerala, Rajasthan, Delhi and Assam are concerned. The only saving grace for UPA is West Bengal, but then Congress has nothing to do with the popularity of Mamata Banerjee.

The BJP at best can hope to emerge as single largest party with 140 odd seats; but without getting the erstwhile NDA partners back in the fold, the numbers don’t add up for them.

And even if they do, it’s difficult for BJP to force their leadership on NDA with such a small number. To be in a dominant position, the BJP has to cross the 172 mark on its own, so that it has enough cushion in NDA. This target seems unlikely at the moment, simply because of its poor status in the mother of all political battle fields: Uttar Pradesh.

In Uttar Pradesh, expect assembly elections within the next three to six months, and that will largely decide the 2014 equations. At the moment BJP is running a poor number four behind BSP, SP and Congress.

If the assembly elections throw up numbers which make a SP-Congress government in Lucknow, it will be different ballgame in 2014, but if it adds up to the BSP-BJP combine then the dynamics will change.

Gadkari probably has understood this and the return of Uma Bharti is an indicator. But the presence of too many “national” leaders, who actually have no support base in the state, might spoil the party. BJP had only one mass base leader in UP, the OBC stalwart Kalyan Singh, and after him, it has failed to produce anyone nearing his appeal and support base. The real ace in the national leadership of BJP is Narendra Modi. After the recent SC verdict, his stock is bound to be high. In our survey, he has emerged as the number 1 choice for being PM among non-Congress candidates.

Once he delivers Gujarat for the third time in row for the BJP next year, the party's “national” leaders will find impossible to stop his rise. Only trouble is, NDA allies will find it difficult to support him. Modi is a smart man for sure. He has already got J Jayalalithaa on his side and don’t be surprised if others join the chorus. The only person who stands between Modi and his dream is Nitish Kumar who is playing his cards well.

He has given tough competition to Modi, not just in governance, but also in popular support. Brand Nitish is no longer a Bihar phenomenon. It is a now a national brand and all non-Congress and non-BJP parties might rally behind him, in case BJP remains below 150 mark in next Lok Sabha elections.

Last, but not the least, let’s understand this very clearly. The kingmakers in Indian politics are no more male. In fact it is a troika of the mass leaders Maya, Jaya and Mamata. Together in between them they will control almost 100 odd seats in Parliament, and may well decide the shape of next government.

Be it UPA, be it NDA. Be it Congress, be it BJP. Be it 3rd front, 4th front, 5th front or any front. In the back, it’s going to be these three single ladies. Without their backing, no front will emerge. And it would be really interesting to see if any of these would like to come in the front. Even today, the UPA government is purely at the mercy of Mamta, without her the numbers don’t add up in Parliament. So, watch out for this “Mahila Morcha”.