FM to CM

 

 

New deal for Bengal

Chandrasekhar Bhattacharjee explores the possibility of a power-sharing arrangement in post-2011 polls West Bengal with Pranab Mukherjee becoming CM first, followed by Mamata

Those, who follow Indian politics at the national-level and the state-level developments, are familiar with the rocky relationship that Trinamool Congress supremo Mamata Banerjee has enjoyed with her alliance partners. While the infamous departure from the NDA Cabinet takes the cake, the latest example has been the agitations and street protests against the Centre’s decision to hike fuel prices. But Mamata has matured as a politician and, as a balancing act, said the following on a television show, “If the people want Pranab Mukherjee as the chief minister, let him become the CM. I am willing to work under him even as a clerk. I have no ambition for any particular post. I have no personal possession other than my jhola . I am in politics only to serve people.”

The political grapevine has it that Mamata’s statement should not be seen as an extension of olive branch. The Trinamool Congress and the Indian National Congress might actually be contemplating an arrangement in which the two will share the chief minister’s chair with Pranab Mukherjee taking the seat first. While leaders in both the parties termed this as mere speculation, such an arrangement could actually benefit the state of Bengal, many observers feel. The dice of the 2011 Assembly polls in West Bengal are loaded in favour of the Opposition. Both the Trinamool and the Congress are aware of the Herculean effort needed to reverse the undoings of the 35-year-old Left Front (Read CPM) rule and lead the state towards betterment. Kumud Bhattacharya, former Pradesh Chhatra Parishad president turned political commentator, says, “Mamata may think of utilising Pranab Mukherjee’s expertise and wisdom to give a push at the beginning. She can then take over and run the government without many hiccups”. He admits there are problems though, the biggest being acceptability of such an arrangement by the Trinamool rank and file.

A section of political analysts also feels that Mamata may opt for this arrangement as this will help her play the role of Sonia Gandhi in state politics. It will ensure that the Congress sticks to the alliance. On the other hand, Mukherjee’s wisdom and experience would come in handy in offsetting any situation of lawlessness that may arise out of the Left Front’ electoral defeat. Mukherjee’s proximity to CPI(M) can also help the matter.

“But, will Pranab Babu, No 2 in Raisina Hills agree to surrender that enormous power to become a mere chief minister,” questions eminent political analyst Siddhartha Sen. According to him, “Technically there is nothing wrong in sharing political power of the state. There has been instances of such sharing in other states. But for that a smooth understanding between Sonia Gandhi and Mamata Banerjee is most important. But, the problem is in Pradesh Congress itself. Pranab Mukherjee does not have much of a mass appeal. He will have to be dependent on his party leaders which may make Mamata Banerjee jittery.”

Eminent journalists like Dilip Ghosh Chowdhury and Amit Sarbadhikari term such an arrangement as ‘hypothetical’. According to Ghosh Chowdhury, “I don’t think this is possible. People of Bengal do not trust Mukherjee so much, not even leaders of his own party. Apart from that, Trinamool is gradually being dragged into conflicts with the Congress. Inner conflicts in Trinamool-ruled panchayats are also coming up. The two parties have virtually no floor coordination in the state Assembly. I will not be surprised if the alliance is over before Assembly polls.” Journalist-turned columnist Amit Sarbadhikari said, “Such kind of understanding between the Congress and the Trinamool is very much possible. But in that case, both the parties have to carry the same weight. If they secure nearly the same number of seats, then Pranab Mukherjee can be a contender for the post of chief minister. But honestly, will the people of West Bengal accept such a formula? People, who want to bring ‘parivartan’ and who hit the streets, want to see her in control of Writers’ Building'. Secondly, if Pranab Mukherjee becomes the chief minister, he would have to bank upon mostly on Congress leaders like Deepa Dasmunshi, Abdul Mannan etc who have not really proven their worth.

Noted theatre personality Bibhas Chakraborty has been in the forefront of the anti-CPI(M) movements in recent years, since the Singur and Nandigram days. He told TSI, “As a citizen, I do cast my vote for one party or the other. But, a citizen’s responsibility in India ends there. The winning party or alliance will elect its leader who will go on to become the chief minister. So, where is people’s or citizen’s role in the process? A citizen or a voter has no chance to elect ministers. That’s why I feel no urge to comment on this matter. But recently, Mamata Banerjee herself has said that Pranab Mukherjee might be the next chief minister. If she and her allies win the race, they can elect Pranab Mukherjee as their leader.”

An analysis of the political situation in post-2011 Assembly polls in West Bengal will reveal that such an arrangement might be good for the state. The state has been caught in a spiral of political violence with all parties including the Maoists having a blood feast. In that light, Mamata assuming chief ministry can lead to unprecedented violence on part of the CPI(M), which will no doubt spark off unforeseen counter-violence by Trinamool activists and the state administration. Pranab Mukherjee scores handsomely here as he has personal equations with most prominent CPI(M) leaders and can tackle the situation more tactfully. Mamata and her party’s position on the Maoists have been pretty ambiguous from the start. She has always made amply clear that she does not see eye-to-eye with Union home minister P. Chidambaram’s assessment of the Maoist situation and his counter measures. Mukherjee will have greater synergy with the Central view. But this logic gets grounded on the premise that a power-sharing alliance is more likely to be governed by common minimum programmes and agendas than by the personal opinions of the leaders of the dispensations. The industrialist lobby of West Bengal as well as those who have invested in the state will heave a sigh of relief if Mukherjee assumes power at Writers’ Building. Mamata, in her capacity as railway minister, may have tried to overhaul her image as a pro-development politician but the memories of Singur and Nandigram are still afresh in people’s minds. Political observers also believe that the astute and experienced Mukherjee will be better placed to deal with the Gorkha Janamukti Morcha about the situation arising in the Darjeeling Hills in the north of the state.

Of course, sharing power for stipulated periods of time is a bit like playing spin on a tricky wicket. Past experiences of Uttar Pradesh and Jammu and Kashmir say that fissures between the partners only get enlarged in such experiments. Pranab Mukherjee’s reputation as a troubleshooter will have to play its part in any such eventuality. Mukherjee will likely play an important part in national politics even if he assumes responsibility of his home state. So that way, he will wield power both at the state and the Central levels. It remains to be seen if Sonia Gandhi and the Congress high command will be comfortable with that.

But the odds against Pranab Mukherjee are also huge as Mamata Banerjee enjoys a huge mass base across the state which Mukherjee or for that matter, no other Congressman, can claim to rival. If the Railway Budget was any indicator, Mamata is dogged on winning Bengal. And being the bigger partner of the alliance, she just might have the final word.