Eternal comings?

 

 

Venezuela’s founding father and idol of current President Hugo Chávez, Simón Bolívar, had once famously said, “Nothing is as dangerous as allowing the same citizen to remain in power for a long time.” This week, his countryman and the man who insists he is his flag-bearer, conveniently forgot the maxim when the voters gave Chávez, the right to run for the presidential post indefinitely. After all, who cares about old maxims these days? Didn’t George Washington say “Love thy neighbour”?

Venezuela's second constitutional plebiscite in 14 months was accepted by a resonant 54 per cent to 45 per cent margin; permitting Chávez to run for a third six-year term in 2012 and possibly many more after that. Chávez's antagonists dread that he has it in mind to set up a democratically voted version of Fidel Castro's rule over Cuba. His aficionados counter that several democratic nations such as France permit their leaders to be re-elected ad infinitum.

Legendary for his oratory, the victory speech by the Venezuelan President was amazingly assuaging. Hugo Chávez told his thrilled followers: "We must revise everything we have done in previous years – we have to start rectifying, adjusting, strengthening."

Chávez’s supporters look up to him as the next Fidel Castro of Latin America. But that is what in private several western diplomats based in Caracas dread. In fact, last year's referendum defeat had given heart to western regimes in general – and the US administration in particular – that Chávez’s charisma was on the wane. This win has confirmed that he is still alive and kicking hard where it hurts the most.

The reaction from Washington has been measured and reflects the shock. “We congratulate the civic and participatory spirit of the millions of Venezuelans who exercised their democratic right to vote." That is what the officials from the State Department could muster up to say. Perhaps they are still finding out what hit them.

Hugo Chávez has savoured taking on the gentleman he called "the devil", George W Bush, habitually ridiculing his "imperialist" approach. He has used anti-US rhetoric, and subsidised oil, to enlist support from an arch of left-inclining regimes in Central and South America, counting Bolivia, Nicaragua and Ecuador. In recent weeks, however, even Chávez has had to mirror on a fresh epoch beginning in Washington, indicating a rapprochement with the United States.

There is another fear: that the referendum might have a cascading effect on the neighbouring countries. In bordering Colombia, the clique of traditionalist President Alvaro Uribe is pushing for a revision that would let him run yet again. Crossways Andes in Ecuador, a constitutional plebiscite last year gave leftist President Rafael Correa the chance to rule until 2017.

Bolivia's leftist President, Evo Morales won a parallel alteration in a referendum last month. The problem now is whether both leaders will ultimately tag along their friend Chavez's lead and seek out the right to run for re-election ad infinitum. Elsewhere, political pundits are waiting to see if Argentina's President Cristina Fernandez and Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega also fall in line.

Washington will now watch if Chávez, who manages the western hemisphere's biggest oil reserves, can hold on to his animated sway in the Americas – and live on politically at home – if oil prices don't bounce back and the economy continues to slither. The future markets appear to believe that oil prices will go up before long, and that Chávez won't have to plunge into his foreign reserves, which are about 25 per cent of Venezuela's GDP. But according to the economists' estimates, oil revenues in 2009 will be only one-third of the returns received in 2008, generating a predestined budget deficit in a few months' time and forcing alterations to be made.

The regime has aborted its nationalisation agenda over the past few months, but it might refurbish the guidelines, targeting personal finance, health and food companies, in an effort to cushion the blow of the crisis on the poor.

Chávez might choose to deal with price rises, probably by undervaluing the Venezuelan currency, bolivar. But countless agree that he is not likely to make severe cuts to the social programmes, where billions of dollars have been thrust into health and education services. He’ll never like to throttle programmes that made a hero out of him. As for the US, it can only hope Chávez doesn’t detect the same "pungent stench of sulphur” in Obama as he did in Bush