Down, but not out

After months of bloodshed and political ambiguity, there appears now to be a definite pattern emerging from the unrest in Syria. And the news is not good for the US, Israel and its other Western allies. 

 

After initial rounds of misjudged optimism, wrong analysis and efforts to find method out of the madness, the top US intelligence officials now claim that not only does the Assad regime in Syria look formidable and unshaken, it is 

also pretty evident that it will not disappear anytime soon. 

 

Since the last week, following the overrun of Baba Amr area where most of the opposition fighters where consolidated, several US intelligence officials have gone on and off the record to suggest thatnow, even they couldn't say with authority and assurance that the opposition represents a majority of the Syrian people. 

 

This development has come has a big set-back to some of the neighbouring countries too, who were pinning hope on the regime change. The biggest setback is for Saudi Arabia and Qatar who had gone out of their ways to help finance subversive activities in the country. On the other hand, Turkey has fared no better and it is now being suggested that intervention in Syrian unrest has turned out to be Foreign Minister Ahmet DavutoÄŸlu's single biggest foreign policy miscalculation. 

 

As far as Assad's chance of remaining in power is concerned, the officials still suggest that odds are against it, but they are now very clear that even if that scenario emerges, it won't be anytime soon. At the most, they assess, this will turn into a civil-war which will not only be long drawn-out but bloody too. 

 

“Our sense is, right now he's (Assad) very much in charge of their militaryoperations. He might survive this,” 

the officials were reported as saying, off the record.

 

These statements are in clear contrast to most of the optimistic assessments and statements that originated from White House and the office of the Secretary of the State in the last few months. Hillary Clinton, who is turning into an object of ridicule lately because of her habit of jumping gun and giving away statements that even her allies feel embarrassed to defend, had said withgreat confidence that Assad's days were “numbered” and that the regime will implode in a matter of weeks. Now no more.

 

More than anything else, this suggests that the US has been hopelessly unaware of the situation on the ground in the last few months and depended more on the reports of the Western press that its own assets. In spite of a few defection here and there, the core of the regime remains intact and solidly behind Assad. Turkey for example paraded a couple of mid level generals and a person who dubiously claimed that he was a Deputy Oil Minister, it is evident that none of the Divisionalcommanders, leave alone Corps commanders has left the ranks. The new US assessment now suggests that “Syria is a formidable military power, with some 330,000 soldiers on active duty, surveillance drones and a dense network of air-defence installations that would make it difficult to establish a no-fly zone.” 

 

And if that is not enough, new intelligence inputs suggest that the previous assessment that it is a majority Sunni revolt against the minority Alawite rule, to which Assad family belongs, also does not hold ground. It is not clear that while the core of the military's leadership ranks is mostly Alawite, the near majority of the files, soldiers carrying out orders, are Sunni conscripts. It is this file, which has shown little sign of crack, that has turned the game.

 

However, more than anything else, it is the support of majority Syrians that has emboldened the regime. Not only the Alawite and large sections of Sunnis, the regime has managed to keep the confidence of other minority Syrian populations - Christians, Kurds and Druze – till now. “The minorities stand steadfast with the regime. There is no question about this,” said the US intelligence official.

 

The population, civilians and soldiers alike, seem to be buying Assad's version of the largely true story that they are fighting an opposition made up mostly of foreign fighters and terrorists. Now even the Americans say that the bomb blasts in Damascus and else had a clear hand of al-Qaeda as the pattern matched similar operations by the group in Iraq.

 

On the other hand, the opposition group, the so-called Free Syrian Army, seems to have more officers than the soldiers. Also, the new assessment believe that the file has been infiltrated by the al-Qaeda elements in large number. But how large is still unclear. On the other hand, one of the top officials of the Turkey-based opposition group, the Syrian National Council, maintained thatfrictions among the members were escalating because they were “jockeying among themselves” for plum positions in the organisation. 

 

It will be difficult for the opposition now to reclaim Baba Amr or surrounding enclaves where they can put up a resistance again. The US officials maintain that the forces cancontinue bombarding these districts for “a long, long time” with the available artillery and other supplies, without even needing reinforcement. “This was an army built for a ground war with Israel. They have approached that level of commitment,” he further added. 

 

It is not for nothing that the West is pressurising Russia and China to vote for an UN Security Council action. However, it does not appear to be happening anytime soon.