For a country rocked by the Gujarat communal violence of 2002, it has been a decade of relative tranquillity. Now suddenly, that peace threatens to dissipate in a series of communal fires being stoked across the land, literally from India's eastern fringes to its western coast, in a chain of related incidents which have the potential to derail the India story.
July 19, 2012, will go down as a red letter day in Assam's turbulent ethnic history. According to police accounts, two persons from the minority community, without any provocation, were shot at by unidentified gunmen at Magurmari in Kokrajhar district. That was the trigger for larger things to come. Soon enough, a group of motorcycle-borne riders entered Bhatiapara village in Kokrajhar and vandalised a Bodo family in an apparent act of retaliation.
The spiral of communal violence, never too far below the surface in ethnically disturbed Assam, had been well and truly unleashed. On July 20, four Bodo youths were shot at in Namapara village in Kokrajhar.
As has happened so many times in the past, after six days of bloodshed, where top civilian authorities remained mute spectators, the Army was deployed in the affected districts of Chirang, Kokrajhar and Baska, and curfew clamped in the Bodoland Territorial Autonomous Districts (BTAD) and nothing less than shoot-at-sight orders were issued to contain the violence which soon threatened to move outside the state into the Indian mainland.
On July 29, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh visited the BTAD area and announced a special package of Rs 300 crores for the rehabilitation of the affected people. Losses are still being calculated but according to the latest count, there are a total of 80 killed and close to five lakh people marooned and rendered homeless.
The retaliation for Assam came in Mumbai. Two weeks later, violence broke out in India's financial capital when a rally organised by Muslim groups at the historic Azad Maidan to protest the Assam riots and attacks on fellow Muslims in Myanmar, turned violent.
The demonstrators – allegedly under the influence of "outsiders", including some from northeastern India, according to the Mumbai police – ran amuck, torching vehicles, pelting stones and destroying government property prompting, the police to open fire. Two people died in the firing.
The country has been rocked by a series of communal riots. Now consider the following.
Bareilly, home to the influential and moderate Barelvi sect, was surprisingly calm even at the height of the Babri Masjid demolition riots in 1992. The first signs of discord came in March 2010 when the town's Hindus and Muslims appeared divided over the route of a small group that was going to join the main Eid Miladun Nabi Juloos (annual rally on Prophet's birthday).
Despite the stone-pelting and arson, no lives were lost but the tension which began more than two years continues, notwithstanding imposition of a 23-day curfew in March 2010.
On July 22 this year, on the first day of the Ramadan in Bareilly, a small incident sparked off a prairie fire. After a kanwaria was hit by a vehicle, all hell broke loose as traffic was blocked and slogans were raised. The situation was brought under control. Soon after, a group of Shiv Bhakts passing near a local mosque were asked to switch off their music, which they did. Even as the altercation was resolved, an SMS hit mobile phones "revealing" how mass violence had broken out between Muslims and Kanwars. That was signal enough for the whole city to be engulfed in a wave of communal violence. So far it has claimed four lives and curfew continues.
On September 14, 2011, clashes between Muslims and Gujjars broke out in Gopalgarh of Rajasthan in which eight persons were killed and several others injured. Since then, Rajasthan Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot has drawn unflattering comparisons with his Gujarat counterpart, Narendra Modi.
So, is the ghost of communal violence back to haunt India? The hope that a nation on the path of development and a younger generation of Indians not carrying the burden of Partition is under threat by the recent communal frenzy. "These incidents show that governance is not on the right track. There is no Babri Masjid-like dispute and the younger generation, which is the third since Partition, is highly materialistic and has no time for all these things," says Maroof Khan, principal of Dr Zakir Husain Memorial Senior Secondary School, in Delhi.
To be sure, communal riots are no novelty in Assam's BTAD, peace being a major casualty in three massive riots in 1987, 1991 and 1996 respectively.
Despite some semblance of order in Kokrajhar and other areas, allegations and counter-allegations continue to fly fast and thick. BTAD chief Hagrma Mahilary says hundreds of Bangladeshis entered the Indian side and began the violence.
Jonomohan Mushahary, secretary of the Ex-Bodo Liberation Tiger (BLT) Welfare Society, alleges that the newly floated militant organisation United Muslim National Army (UMNA), under the chairmanship of Ramjan Islam, is responsible for the latest round of violence. Now, the fear factor has taken hold. Says ULFA's Mrinal Hazarika, "A machine boat with arms had crossed the Brahmaputra and two more are on away. The government must investigate the matter."
The irony is that the number of Muslims in the relief camps is significantly higher than the total Muslim population of the Kokrajhar district, the epicentrer of the riots in the state.
Three organisations – the Assam Minority Students' Union (AMSU), All Bodoland Territorial Council (ABTC) and the All Bodoland Minority Students' Union (ABMSU) – have denied the involvement of illegal immigrants and have instead blamed Mahilary. They have found support from Assam Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi who has denied the involvement of Bangladeshis. "We have no information about the involvement of Bangladeshis in the riots," Gogoi ruled categorically.
But tempers are difficult to quell when the emotional pitch is so high and agent provocateurs so active. Vishwa Hindu Parishad (VHP) leader Pravin Togadia told journalists that "no aid or facility should be extended to any Bangladeshi as they are responsible for the ethnic cleansing in the area".
Says eminent advocate from Assam Nekibur Zaman, "Today's BTAD is nothing but the homeland of several communities after Independence. It does not mean that the newly born BTAD is only for Bodos. A few anti-social elements are creating communal tension for political benefits."
Some independent observers say the Assam killings have the stamp of a right-wing offensive. "I saw no trace of Bangladeshi offensive in the conflict, so systematically and vigorously orchestrated by BJP and VHP, led by LK Advani, Tarun Vijay and Praveen Togadia. They are playing with the lives of people and poisoning the atmosphere.
Bangladeshi is an abuse to humiliate Muslims who are native Indians. There may be a fewer Bangladeshis, but in all likelihood, they are labourers,"’ says VK Tripathi of IIT Delhi.
According to anti-communal activist Shabnam Hashmi, "It is difficult to comment on the cause of riots as it is not easy to understand Assam politics but one thing is crystal clear that situation in relief camps is very bad. There are forces in the country who want to keep alive the illegal immigrant issue just like the Ram Mandir issue."
May be there is also a kernel of truth in the argument that while communal violence can flare up, it is the duty of the state to restore order. Points out former Bareilly MP, BJP's Santosh Gangwar, "It was not because of Shiv Bhakts but because of poor administration. Security arrangements in sensitive areas were not adequate." Bareilly Congress MP Parveen Aeron disagrees. "Communal forces started this riot as they do not want peace to be restored,"’ he says in a now-familiar line.
For people like these, any excuse is good enough to start a conflagration, no matter if it is a local one. In UP's Pratapgarh district, violence broke out on June 19 this year when an 11-year-old Dalit girl was raped and killed. Four Muslim youths were held for the crime.
It turned out that the violence was the result of local village elections in which a Muslim had won with the help of Dalits and so a winning political platform needed to be demolished. The winner got the PDS contract in the name of loser Awadesh Singh cancelled. Even though loser managed to get back the contract, thanks to his close association with UP Jail Minister, the notorious Raja Bhaiyya, a fellow Thakur. The riots were allegedly instigated by Awadesh in retaliation to the cancellation of the contract. Are we heading back to the days when communal violence was the key to open political locks? Are these killings planned with an eye on 2014 Lok Sabha elections and a ploy to sweep corruption, inflation and governance under the carpet and make communalism a poll issue?
With inputs from Dulal Misra, Mushahid M Khan, Farooque Ahmed and Danish Reyaz