Counting it on ABACUS

 

 

The Prime Minister, Manmohan Singh is learning his political lessons the Red way. With the Left flexing its muscles on the Indo-US nuke deal, the existence of the UPA government, which has been in power for a little over three years, is threatened. As the ongoing political drama continues to unfold, the “live-in” relationship between the Congress and the Communists is coming to an end.

Will the Left parties, led by the CPI(M) and CPI cross the Rubicon? Will the UPA succumb to the Left’s strong-arm tactics or face the challenge and go for a snap poll? What exactly are the options before Manmohan Singh and the Congress president, Sonia Gandhi?

After throwing the initial challenge, “so be it…if you decide to quit” to the Left, if Manmohan Singh does concede and reject the deal, it could possibly spell a foreign-policy disaster for him. Former foreign secretary, Lalit Mansingh has gone on record saying that “the collapse of the deal would involve a massive loss of face and credibility for India. It will be a setback.” Speaking to TSI, former foreign secretary, Salman Haider backs the deal by terming it as “a good deal.” Other experts feel that a “broader, political strategic understanding with the foreign government would help India.” So far the power breakfast between the Prime Minister and CPI(M) bosses, Prakash Karat and Sitaram Yechury has failed to break the impasse. Yet, to soften the Left, the government has decided to form an expert panel to scrutinise the deal. The Left, however, views Singh’s move for a “strategic delay” with much skepticism. “What is the point of forming a committee, if the government has decided to go ahead with the deal?” says CPI leader D. Raja. Barring the Left (which has been providing outside support to the government), all the major UPA allies have rallied around the Prime Minister and Sonia Gandhi. The DMK chief, M. Karunanidhi has not merely asked the left to amend its stance but also warned that the red-rigidity “might have serious implications between the DMK-Left relation.” The Left also cannot join hands with the BJP, opposing the deal and waiting in the wings for a mid-term poll. Incidentally, the BJP was also known for toeing the US-line during the NDA regime. The Left, however, is inching rapidly towards the United National Progressive Alliance (UNPA), which has 50 MPs in its kitty. The UNPA, comprising of TDP, AIADMK, Samajwadi Party and AGP have been steadfastly opposing the deal. The fence sitters at this moment are outfits like BSP, National Conference and People’s Democratic Party among the major regional players.

If the Congress decides to dare the Left and goes ahead with the deal, it faces the threat of losing the Muslim vote bank. The danger of the Muslim vote bank being swayed by anti-US rhetoric is not lost on the Congress. Says, senior RSP leader, Abani Roy, “Anti-US rhetoric would consolidate the Muslim vote bank in UNPA’s favour.”

Moreover neither Congress nor its allies (barring the NCP led by Sharad Pawar) is willing to go for a snap poll at the moment. The drubbing in Uttar Pradesh has forced the Congress shelve any such plans, if there were any. Also, the UPA apprehends that in the event of a mid-term poll, there is a possibility of the BJP-led NDA returning to power. Yet the Congress leaders are putting up a brave front with the AICC general secretary, Digvijay Singh saying: “Congress is ready for polls.”

With the narrow space available, the Congress spin doctors have swung into action to continue with what they call “backroom maneuvering”. The crisismanager, External Affairs Minister, Pranab Mukherjee has been put on the job to hold parleys with Karat, Yechury and the CPI general secretary, A.B. Bardhan to break the nuclear logjam. “Going for a snap poll would be politically imprudent,” says a senior Congress leader. But if the Left “refuses to relent, this seems the only option,” he feels.

Coming to the issue of number game, UPA with 219 in its kitty is surviving on the Left’s support, which has a brutal strength of 59 legislators in Lok Sabha. 539 being the effective strength of the Lok Sabha, 272 is the magic number. Therefore, if the Left withdraws support, the government falls. At this juncture, no formation can provide the required number to form an alternative government. Even if the NDA (172 MPs) and BSP (18 MPs) join hands, the combination falls short by 80 legislators. The UNPA (50 MPs) and the Left combo has a strength of only 109 in Parliament. Stretching the imagination, if BSP, Janata Dal (Secular) and National Conference are added to the UNPA-Left bandwagon, the combination still falls far short of simple majority. The only option therefore would be to go to the polls.

The other serious issue for the UPA is that if the deal is put for discussion under the rule 184 in Parliament and the Left decides to go ahead with the voting, the government stands to lose. At this juncture majority of the MPs (nearly 281) are all set to oppose the deal. So far, the Lok Sabha Speaker, Somnath Chatterjee has rejected the Opposition demand for voting on the issue.

Another option before the Prime Minister is that he can try to ready the deal quickly for US ratification, after getting it approved by the 45 Nuclear Supplier’s group and by the International Atomic Energy Agency. In this particular case, he risks the threat of losing domestic support.

How did it all start? Some say, Singh brought the crisis upon himself. Two days before the text of the 123 Agreement was laid in Parliament, the Prime Minister in an interview to a Kolkata-based English Daily, dared the Left to withdraw support. He was quoted as saying “I told them (Left) that it is not possible to renegotiate the deal…if they want to withdraw support, so be it…” Karat, the hardliner retorted: “UPA is running the government with Left’s support, it should decide, whether it wants to run the government.”

At this juncture, the Prime Minister is in an unenviable position. The outcome of the nuclear deal in the domestic politics could be severe for Singh. It appears that the Prime Minister and Sonia Gandhi will explore all possible options to break the deadlock. And the deal’s longevity will depend on how Manmohan-Sonia combine handle the issue.