State of the Nation

Too early to call


After high inflation, the major issue is corruption but who will benefit if elections were held today not clear at the moment?


The last few years have not been good for electoral forecasts and we have seen a huge variation between the assessment of ‘agencies’ and also in the results of the elections.
This is rather a disturbing phenomena and I wonder if the political influence is in one way or another sweeping into the media and the agencies who conduct this research and those who give meaning full interpretation to these surveys.
We have seen in the recent past a survey which indicated that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) was number one in Uttar Pradesh and another which indicated that they were number four!
We are in coalition politics and we have in the last two terms of governance seen the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) for the sake of survival submit to the allies on portfolios and many a regional party both in 2004 and 2009 used their power at the centre to build their finances in the state and in many cases these were managed by family interests and look at the ease with which Nitish Kumar and the JD(U)/BJP humbled Lalu Yadav and family, Mayawati and the BSP beat Mulayam Singh and his family dynasty [brothers, son, daughter in law] and did anyone forecast the extent of victory and defeat and look at the 2G scam which decimated three generations of the DMK family and again could anyone forecast the margin of victory of the AIADMK?
I agree with the current assessment that after inflation the major issue is corruption and criminality but here at this time we are talking of who will get the benefit if the elections were held today?
My assessment is that the public mood is grim and the popular feeling will be that the Congress being in power will suffer but I am not sure if this will be reflected in the elections to make a dramatic difference as there is no such thing as a ‘instant election’ and even a 30-45 day period if sufficient to make public opinion churn once or twice before the votes are cast.
A change in attitude has taken place, the Anna Hazare issue is real and corruption along with inflation are the top two issues and there is no doubt that with the advent of technology and the ‘new’ media the ‘accountability’ issue will increase as the aam aadmi is very well informed and with increased income levels, the need factor has been taken over by aspirations and the political fraternity has to answer more questions than ever before. I am convinced in my mind that party labels and feudal influences will matter less as times goes on and individual leadership skills will prevail and the ‘incumbency’ factor will intensify where local leaders are considered competent and working in the public interest.
I see both the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) under pressure and despite the opinion polls showing dramatic swings from June 2011 in public ratings. I do not see a large vote swing factor between the two but I do see greater consolidation in the states with efficient Chief Ministers (CMs) and this cuts across party lines.
The Congress has Sheila Dikshit in Delhi, Tarun Gogoi in Assam and Prithvi Raj Chavan in Maharashtra is gaining in stature while in the BJP Narendra Modi in Gujarat, Shivraj Singh Chauhan and Raman Singh in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh and Dhumal in Himachal Pradesh  (HP) are all considered ‘good’ and I do not think they are effected too much by the current crisis.   
There will be some anti-incumbency trends and the position can be quite different for a CM who is a ‘poor performer’ and the classic example is the Andhra CM and he can and will be defeated by almost anyone in the opposition!
The day of Supreme Leaders have gone with coalition politics at the centre and no one in the Congress or the BJP can swing a national or state election on their own charisma and the last leader who could achieve this was Indira Gandhi.
Today ‘numbers’ are added and determine power sharing agreements [political auction?] and coalition politics is all about give and take and this has resulted in utter chaos.
I am not a astrologer but with all the surveys and indications available today my personal assessment is that the Congress and the BJP who hold 320 out of 542 seats today will dip to 280-300 seats and I see the Congress decline to 150-160 seats from the current level and the BJP may remain at 110-120 seats unless clarity emerges in the top leadership of the party and after the Supreme Court decision, Narender Modi may emerge and this can make a difference.Regional parties can grow from 220 seats to 250 seats and if they form a combination of interests based on power sharing agreements then the pendulum can swing in a dramatic manner but all this is in the future.
Regional parties can swing in either direction and secular and non-secular issues may not apply and Bihar CM Nitish Kumar has shown that this is possible.
The Congress within the UPA-II is once again under pressure due to its own allies and some in the opposition who give support on a ‘selective’ basis as they are stuck in one situation or another and can the Congress afford further erosion to its credibility by submitting to their demands and all this in a system where there are no secrets?
We have four to five months before going into the election season and we will once again have a flurry of opinion polls but all this is in the future.
I see the Congress putting up a strong fight in Uttarakhand and chief minister BC Khanduri has limited time to repair the damage. Tough and we may see Baba Ram Dev in action for the BJP while in Punjab the ruling Akali Dal is under pressure from Amarinder Singh and the Congress and anti-incumbency trends are very visible.
The position in Uttar Pradesh is not clear and while Mayawati looks invincible, I see the Congress mounting a strong challenge across the State and barring ‘political’ accidents can do well.
The Anna Hazare effect will also be visible as he remains a credible factor and these along with last minute caste alignments will add to the issues which will influence polls and the situation in three months can be very different in the electoral arena.
I would give all the poll survey material the respect it deserves but this means very little and no indicator today will remain constant tomorrow and public opinion changes rather rapidly and when all the contestants suffer from the same ‘virus’ there is no such thing as a high moral ground.