Compromised Coalition

 

 

On the fourth anniversary of the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Congress President Sonia Gandhi made for an impressive picture, smiling and accepting congratulatory messages from party men and allies, secure in the knowledge that four years had passed off relatively peacefully, but equally aware that the last one presented the biggest challenges for the coalition, before the country goes for General Elections next year.

As the UPA government approaches its four years in office, there is a whiff of fragility and under-confidence in the air, as if at any moment the entire idea of India as a rising power might simply blink out like a bad idea.

The highlights of the four-year UPA regime is the story of absolute control of the Communists on all realms of policy-making, the single point agenda of UPA allies to stay afloat with the Congress at their own price and a compulsion particular to coalition politics: a supine back in which every whimsical ally has to be accommodated.

While there are many issues that are likely to come up in the run up to the General Elections, inflation, feel experts, is going to take its biggest toll on UPA. “Almost all sections of the society feel betrayed or disappointed in the past four years of UPA rule. The UPA Government's biggest failure has been on the inflation front. It has not only lost the battle against inflation but also failed to provide relief to people in fulfilling their basic requirements despite three renowned economists at the helm of affairs,” CPM Rajya Sabha member, Nilotpal Basu, told TSI.

Analysts have also called into question the most potent of UPA’s cards, the loan waiver scheme. They say that notwithstanding the hype, the Budget this year has not proved to be as promising as made out to be by Finance Minister, P. Chidambaram. The key question here: according to un-denied reports, the amount of wavier is only Rs 23,000 crore. But Chidambaram has been talking about Rs 60,000 crore for loan waiver. Where is the discrepancy? The so-called benefit to the farmers is actually very minimal. “If we compare the loan waiver and the income tax waiver provided in Budget 2008-09, we find that the loan waiver per head is Rs 4500 and the tax waiver for those who have Rs 2 lac income is over Rs 6000 at the minimum and the waiver for those whose income is Rs 20 lacs is – believe it – Rs 49500! It makes mockery of the claim that it is a farmers' budget,” says BJP President Rajnath Singh.

While allies remain guarded, privately they say that loan waiver scheme could be insufficient. “It has failed to generate hope and confidence among the debt ridden farmers in the country. More than 200 farmers committed suicide in different parts of the country even after the announcement of the loan wavier. I demand the UPA Government to come up with a ten-year-plan on agriculture which should be discussed in a special session of Parliament,” Samajwadi Party MP, Mohan Singh, told TSI.

But if economic issues dominate, the last four years have seen a series of incredible compromises affected to keep the government going. Starting off with literally forcing the then President, A.P.J. Abdul Kalam, to sign a dubious notification dismissing the Bihar government and inexplicable acts of the CBI trying to protect a man they were trying to nail earlier, Lalu Yadav, the UPA years have been marked by magical somersaults to keep their key allies in good cheer.

Later, the UPA government was criticised for imposing Central rule in Jharkhand in what appeared to be a case of rank political opportunism and one in which the UPA government had to face defeat when they tried to impose a government of their own allies, the RJD and JMM in Ranchi. In the last couple of weeks, the UPA government has been severely embarrassed by a series of judicial pronouncements which have caught them on the defensive. Last week, the Supreme Court ruled that the freshly and hastily-enacted All India Institute of Medical Education and Research (Amendment) Act was illegal and reinstated its Director, P. Venugopal, who was ousted by Health Minister Ambumani Ramdoss in what was a vendetta game, rather than any differences in policy.

More recently, the government has been under pressure on the Ram Setu issue and is seen to be flip-flopping with their moves in the light of open threats issued by key ally DMK and its leader, K.Karunanidhi. Clearly, in a fragmented political scenario, the opposition is likely to use every issue to its political advantage. Says BJP’s Jaswant Singh: “ever since the UPA Government came to power, terrorism has been successful in spreading its nefarious design all over the country. Analysts say the UPA Government’s approach has been casual while dealing with terror and other anti-India activities. The existence of more than 5000 sleeper modules in almost all parts of the country is a clear indication that India is virtually sitting on a tinder box.”

The seemingly never ending debate on the US-India nuclear deal has made it clear that today India stands divided on fundamental foreign policy choices facing the nation. Experts quote Walter Lipmann who in 1943 wrote on US foreign policy saying: “For when a people is divided within itself about the conduct of its foreign relations, it is unable to agree on the determination of its true interest. It is unable to prepare adequately for war or to safeguard successfully its peace.” Rather apt words, keeping in view India’s recent war of words with Beijing and the precautions it would have to adopt once the Olympics are over in China. “Coalition politics has its own compulsions”

How do you rate the performance of the UPA government?

Whatever promises were made by the UPA government in the common minimum programme (CMP) have been fulfilled and it is a very long list. All the flagship programmes are in full swing. The latest achievement is the Women’s Reservation Bill which has been introduced in the Parliament. The Right to Information Act has enhanced the civil rights and transparency in system.

You forget that in the CMP it was claimed that inflation will be at a minimal level but it has crossed seven per cent.

For this our fiscal policy is not to be blamed. There are certain causes which enhance inflation but the Finance Minister has reduced certain duties and has assured that within one month the prices of essential commodities will come down. Moreover, the government has achieved record procurement target of wheat. The Central Government is taking all best possible steps to contain inflation.

But the government is seen as having compromised on various issues.

There are certain constraints of coalition politics. If you are talking about certain objections of the Left, they come up with ideas. The government considers and whatever best possible adjustment are possible, the government considers them, but it does not mean that we have compromised.