Clueless in Nepal

United Nation's Mission in Nepal (UNMIN) left the country-in-turmoil on January 15. The UNMIN's moving out came amid growing speculation that Nepal may fail to meet its extended deadline of May 28 of writing the constitution. The country is being run by the caretaker government for the last  seven months, and while the process to elect a prime minister is on, it does not seem to yield any concrete results so far.

The Mission in Nepal was established in 2007 amid International pressure and it had the mandate for one year to supervise the peace process that began after the decade-long conflict between Maoist insurgents and the state. The insurgency cost more than 16,000 lives. Thousands of others were maimed and injured.

UNMIN had been serving the purpose of a neutral observer over the activities of the Peoples Liberation Army (PLA) fighters living in cantonments and those of the Nepali Army. Now, with the closure of UNMIN, the old, unresolved issues may reach a point of no return. The issues of the integration and rehabilitation of the PLA cadre are long pending with no signs of resolution in the near future. The political battles between the parties have been complicating the issues without any meaningful progress.

Sixteen rounds of voting in the Parliament have failed to produce a new leader since prime minister Madhav Kumar Nepal stepped down in June last year. The lack of leadership is hampering development in one of the poorest countries in the world. Nihar Nayak, associate fellow, Institute for Defence Studies and Analysis, feels that Nepali Congress and CPN-UML are acting as spokes in the wheel. Nayak, who works on Maoist insurgency in South Asia says, “The CPN-UML and Nepali Congress are in the favour of status quo. It is they who are dragging their feet on the most important issue of integration of the PLA cadre into the army and the government formation.”

What Nayak is talking about are the developments after the Maoist strike in Kathmandu in May 2010. Immediately after the end of the strike in Kathmandu in May, the Chairman of Unified Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist, Pushpa Kamal Dahal aka Prachanda had clearly enunciated on May 12 that the integration of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) was possible within four months. He had stated that the barracks of the Young Communist League (YCL) will be dismantled and the Maoists were ready to break the relation of the party with the cantonments (where PLA cadres are located). But this did not evoke any positive response from the parties like Nepali Congress and the  Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML).

To complicate the matters further, there is a lack of clear stand on the identity of the CPN-UML as a party as there are two factions within the party. One faction  wishes to remain liberal and moderate while the other wants to echo hardline communist views.

As the squabble at the national level continues, a joint monitor group with the representatives from Nepal Army, Nepal Police, Nepal Armed police, Maoists and political parties is replacing the UNMIN charter as it is. The joint monitor group will keep an eye on the arms collected from the ex-PLA cadres and kept in containers in various PLA cantonments across the country, apart from managing these cantonments and watching the movements of the PLA cadres. It will also be observing the activities of the Nepali Army.

The process of drafting a new national constitution which would aim at ending  social inequalities— which were a major cause of the war— has come to a halt. This issue will keep bothering the poor people of Nepal as the process supposed to come to a conclusive end by May 28 this year is elusive. C.K. Lal, a political commentator in Nepal, says, “The formulation of the constitution by May 28 is impossible given the current differences among the major players. What is more important is that the non-political powers and the parties eying Maoists' removal will want the issue of the framing of the consti-tution hanging.”

Speaking on the same aspect, Nihar Nayak says that even in the present situation the Maoists would have broader support base than any of the several political parties in Nepal. Maoists and other political parties in Nepal have been continuously at loggerheads since 2006 on the issue of integration and government formation.

The possibility of Maoists returning to the jungle and restarting their insurgency is concerned looks bleak. Firstly, returning to the bush has never been an easy option for any insurgent movement whose cadres have lived a comfortable life for some time and whose leadership has been enjoying legitimate political power. Secondly, a fair proportion of arms in its inventory have been surrendered, though, it is not possible to believe that all weapons have found their way to the cantonments' armouries.

The integration became an important issue because the Nepal Army under General Rookmangud Katawal was adamant to do it as per the laid down standards of recruitment for Nepalese to join the army. Their plea is that it is not possible to absorb an old insurgent who was given the rank of a brigade commander in Prachanda's force as a brigadier in the Nepal Army. Officers in no professional army can be political appointees.

The Nepalese Army also wants other avenues of rehabilitation to be utilised for  rehabilitating the PLA fighters. The Army Integration Special Committee Secretariat, headed by Lt. Gen (Retd.) Balanand Sharma, has proposed the process of integration and rehabilitation to be done in five phases by 2013. But the proposal has not been endorsed by the Maoists.

After this, the cadre would be categorised into those who will be integrated into Nepal Army, police and Armed Police Forces and those who will be sent for rehabilitation after giving them vocational training. But the pressure on the forces is quite imminent. Barsa Man Pun, deputy commander of PLA told TSI in an exclusive interview, “Integration and rehabilitation are very important issues and these should be done as soon as possible. My stress is that the integration should be done at a respectful level and the rehabilitation has to be attractive. Otherwise it will be gross injustice to the cadre. Some of them can be easily absorbed in the Nepal Army, others can be integrated by forming a new paramilitary force like the Border Guarding Force.”

But the fact is, without a neutral body or mechanism to addressdisputes, the country remains in a flux with no party ready to accepta coherent solution.