Brand Modi

 

 

Yashwant Deshmukh

Psephologist & Political Analyst



Modi would have swept the polls if this was a presidential form of electoral system. Normally, in our first past the post system borrowed from Westminster, the personal popularity is not directly proportional to votes and seats of the party. Were it not for a wishful section of media, these elections should not have resulted the way they have. Voting on cult status was something that was done away with Indira Gandhi. But it made a comeback in these polls, and now it can force media to think that Gujarat might become to the BJP what West Bengal is to the Left. But there is a ‘but’, and an ‘if’ to this assumption.

There is no simple answer to this. Simplifying helps; but not in the case of a democracy in transition. There are sharp contrasts and contradictions in public perceptions on leadership and governance issues. Apparently, Gujarat voters are more sharply divided now than five years back, but this time it was less on communal passions, more on the modus operandi of the CM and the government. Brand Modi was a multi-layered product, and was aimed at Sec A & B (the great Indian Middle Class) just like the ‘India Shining’ campaign.

To understand Modi’s cult image, let’s figure out the pros and cons of his personality in public perception. The pros first. The biggest personality trait is that the people think he is aggressive. Second, people feel that he doesn’t believe in nepotism (owing to the fact that he doesn’t have a family life in public image). Then comes the perception that he doesn’t care much. Compare these with the cons. The biggest negative point in people’s perception is that Modi’s working style is autocratic and feudal. On reading the finer points carefully, one realises that this is also his biggest positive point. This is the paradox, and this is the polarisation about the leadership. The outcome is that the same people consider him an egocentric leader and feel that he cares more about his personal image than the party image.

Last but not the least is the communal issue. One of the largest negative perceptions about him is that he has promoted factionalism in the BJP. This relates to further the public perception that he is disrespectful of senior politicians within the party and doesn’t care much about party workers. Also, there was not a case for personal campaign against Modi but there sure was a scope for campaign against the governance at a local level. This was valid all over the state and might have yielded better results for Congress than any personality based campaign against the CM. People either love him or hate him, but can’t ignore him. There are no gray areas in this political polarisation. The bad news for Congress is that as of today, more people approve of Modi’s leadership than disapprove of it. But the positive side for Congress is that there are clearly 40% voters who don’t believe in Modi’s way of governance and with just 10% more joining the opposition, the political equation will tilt the balance for an even justified electoral contest.

The anti incumbency was maximum at the micro level and minimum at macro level. This means, the more the campaign was focused on the performance of the sitting MLA, local sarpanch, Municipal Corporations etc., the more Congress was likely to gain (as in central Gujarat). But it was the alternative i.e., the more the campaign was focused on Modi, the more he gained. The problem is that attacking Modi gives handsome dividends to Congress in terms of minority Congress outside Gujarat. But within Gujarat, it backfires. It was a dream come true for Modi as Congress decided to dilute the campaign on local non performance and non governance by focusing the campaign against the individual personality of the CM. It might be good for the congress in the rest of the country but not in Gujarat.

So, can Brand Modi be exported outside India? Unlikely as the Sec A & B is not yet calling the shots in all the states. But with the growing economy, the faster growing middle class will surely gain a critical mass in the near future that would decide the electoral outcomes. That should give a ray of hope to a few other workaholic CMs.

And did you notice another common link between leaders Lalu, Mayawati, Jayalalitha, and Modi? Indian babus shivers with fear with mere mention of their name. The common man loves the way they control (read: humiliate) the bureaucracy. Whipping the babu is one of the foundation stones of their cult status. But that’s another story, another day.