Bomb thy neighbours

 

 

Georgia lost an imprudent stake in thumbing its nose at her authoritative neighbour Russia, which this week bombed Georgian cities and snatched control of her seceded province of South Ossetia. As this report went to print, Russia had stopped the assault but not before stretching her attacks on ‘mainland’ Georgia, advancing tanks, heavy artillery and infantry. They were already on the outskirts of the Gori in central Georgia when the orders to stop assault were read. This was the first ever attack on a Georgian city in ‘Georgia Proper’. The attack had intensified after Georgia announced a unilateral ceasefire and withdrawal of troops for South Ossetia, which many believe were actually chased out by the Russians.

The present military manoeuvre – which includes aerial bombing of capital Tbilisi – indicates that Russia's plan in the clash had gone beyond securing South Ossetia and Abkhazia that are supposed to be Pro-Russian, to delivering the death blow to the Georgian military apparatus. According to Russia, Georgia provoked the assault by attacking South Ossetia last week, causing heavy civilian casualties. However, Western diplomats are worried that Russia has used relatively low level conflict in the Caucasus region to expand its sphere of influence and to send a warning signal to the west at the same time. It has also opened second front at Abkhazia – another breakaway province of Georgia. While the US has criticised what she calls Russia’s “Disproportionate Response”, Russia has asked the US to mind her business by citing what it did in Afghanistan, Iraq and Serbia.

Noted Russian military expert Yitzhak Brudny told TSI: “Russia could not have possibly let go of this golden opportunity to teach Georgia and its neighbours a lesson. The message is clear, ‘Behave properly or perish’.” West too has to share the blame of this debacle. They never tried enough to make President Mikheil Saakashvili see reason. Saakashvili on his part completely misjudged the situation. His adventurism was fuelled by all the pep talk by US and NATO. So, he concluded that he could incite Russia with impunity. The Russians concluded that it was time to teach him a lesson. Andrew Wilson, a celebrated Caucuses expert at European Council on Foreign Relations, told TSI, “Saakashvili may have thought the Olympics Games would give him cover. But this only made him look duplicitous. The Georgian may therefore already be losing the all-important propaganda war.”

With Georgia, Moscow has sent a curt warning to the expanding West: Thus far, and no farther. West has few options but to succumb.