I will first talk a bit about Russia before coming to India-Pakistan.
Exactly about a year back, Russia started its war on the ISIS in Syria! That was what the world needed desperately. Almost like the Cold War era, Russia took America head on without caring... smashing the USA-backed extremists in Syria, while additionally destroying ISIS; bombing them in a manner last seen maybe 70 years back. From state-of-the-art bombers and missiles to absolutely brilliant sea-to-land missile attacks from a distance of 1500 km to deploying the 'Blazing Sun' – heavy flamethrower 24 barrel missile launchers capable of flattening eight city blocks, not just by sheer heat but also by sucking up the oxygen in that area and creating a near vacuum – Russia spared no effort.
Expectably, after years of near silence and efforts to demean Russian existence, the Western media has woken up to its power. And the West and its media have unleashed a huge campaign to make Russia look evil as a way to downplay their heroics.
The truth, however, is a bit different. The truth is that the world's most inhumane and dangerous terror organization, ISIS, is almost destroyed; and it's thanks only and only to Russia, which achieved this almost by the end of the first month of strikes itself. And now, ISIS is comprehensively on the run. During this phase, Iran and Lebanon have joined hands with Russia. Putin has been called Sheikh Putin in Iraq, as more and more middle eastern nations warm up to Russia leaving the suckers – America – behind. The NATO forces silently stepped away and virtually grounded their jets, so that by mistake they don't end up crashing with Russian jets, in fear of a World War III-like situation – a situation that they realize, they are bound to lose. And the truth is that they haven't seen the kind of weapons that Russia is using with precision and determination, as Russians show how a war against terrorism of the worst and most shocking kinds can be destroyed in a matter of days. Obviously calling into question what was America doing for more than two years spending 10 million dollars a day "fighting ISIS" while the IS militants chopped off hundreds of heads and made videos for the Facebook propagation of their heinous crimes (not to mention the additional embarrassment of the US dropping a bomb on a hospital in Kunduz, Afghanistan).
I have always believed that eventually, religious extremism of all kinds which create terrorism and deaths, will be bombed out, because the religious extremists will never realize they are wrong, and therefore carry on with their imbecile beliefs. And this time, the bombing has been started by Russia.
For far too long, US and CIA have been responsible for creating Al-Qaeda and similar extremist outfits in the Middle East, Afghanistan and Pakistan. Sadly, Russia remained a spectator while China decided not to interfere and concentrate on making money. Thus leaving USA with a free hand at spreading terrorism of the imperialistic kind and war mongering around the world – from Latin America to Middle East. That's why I always favoured the balance of power of the Cold War era over the post-1989 era of one-sided greed-driven war mongering of the US-NATO combine. Syria is a typical case of the US spreading war to dislodge a government not to its liking, like they have done endless number of times in the past – in Latin America, Africa, Iraq etc... – and the sad part is that the US has farcically fought these wars in the name of democracy, while in reality, post the war, they have put a devilish dictator in power as an American stooge and disappeared after getting their required contracts.
This war had ended up with Russia destroying ISIS as well as other so called moderate militant groups (those terrorists that the US backs are called moderate). And that's where the hurt has been for USA. While they wanted to dislodge the present regime in Syria with the help of their so called moderate terrorists, Russia has not just destroyed ISIS spectacularly but also the US backed moderate terrorists. And the whole world became a spectator. At first, the US tried to resent – even used the Olympics to humiliate Russia by banning their players unfairly... then finally, they thought of having a joint mission to save face. However, they soon realized joining hands with Russia would show they failed. So they backed out of it and started their usual campaign of painting Russians as devils, trying to cite some bombings that had killed civilians. As if the Americans have never made mistakes. In fact, they were the ones who, in a planned manner, nuked the Japanese. It was no mistake.
Now, the Russians have called back the relatives of their government officials from other countries in preparation of a possible World War and has deployed nuclear launchers on the borders of Poland and Lithuania; and none other than Gorbachev has described the situation as dangerous. What has thus started in effect is Cold War Phase 2!
To my mind, it's not yet a scary situation, but of course a situation that needs to be studied intelligently. Yes, in all probabilities, a full fledged war between NATO and Russia wouldn't really happen because of two reasons. One, because Russia has almost won the war in Syria and the NATO forces have been on the back foot; so they are unlikely to do anything now. This is the same war that the US has been fighting for more than two years by shamefully arming "moderate extremists" of Syria, as if arming them earlier and creating an unmanageable breakaway faction in the form of ISIS was not enough or arming "moderate extremists" in Afghanistan and creating Al-Qaeda and Osama weren't good enough! And here, Russia comes and finishes it off almost in a few weeks! It only shows that USA was busier making money playing war games instead of finishing ISIS.
The second reason I believe a third World War like situation won't happen is because all the NATO countries including UK realize very well that they have no military capability to really go into a war with Russia. Last year, I was reading regularly that Russian jets had been getting into British airspace to test British reaction times, creating total shock in the British Parliament. And yet, the consensus was that UK really can't do anything as their limited number of jets aren't swift and equipped enough to take on Russian jets; and their ground tanks are absolutely rusting! Not just the UK, it's the same story with the Germans and French with their military equipment on a rusting mode and military recruitments throughout the West at their lowest. To add to the American and Western fear is the fact that in case of a war, it's inevitable that China will join hands with Russia. That would mean a double blow. Firstly, through a grinding halt to the production of all US goods being produced in China; and secondly, through a phenomenal addition to the Russian might.
So the question of a Russia versus NATO war really doesn't arise. Actually, I bet Obama must be cursing the day they stupidly made Putin stand isolated – a few meters away from them – for the G-8 group leaders' photograph and put those childish sanctions on Russia. Personally, I am sure that's the day that Putin had decided to change the track of modern history and remind the world that the only real power that exists in the world today is Russia. America might be having almost similar weapons, but it can't afford to go to war as Americans can't afford body bags. Specially given their current, growing, massive internal unrest with the blacks, the last thing they would want are body bags which essentially have black soldiers laying down their lives. Russia, on the other hand, has no such fear and a massive and ready ground army. And to win wars, a ground army is most essential. Add to that the chances of the Chinese army joining hands with Russia, and what you have is a certain defeat for anyone taking them on.
I call this "changing the track of modern history" because more than stopping ISIS, this Russian action was perhaps a necessity to stop the unbridled spread of war mongering for ulterior motives. At times, a war is the only way to keep peace. Not the type of greed driven ones that USA fights for. But the type of non-exploitative peace driven ones that Russia has focused upon in Syria and the USSR used to threaten with earlier. That's the way the erstwhile USSR maintained global peace till 1989, and that's how I hope Russia will now start a new era of global peace... through Cold War Phase 2! The entire era between 1945 to 1990 was the most peaceful in the last hundred years. Only because of the Cold War, Americans dared not mess up with USSR.
And that's what is needed to get the bloodsucking oil-thirsty greedy, American imperialists in control. The most embarrassing blow to the US policy – thanks to Russian intervention exposing American fraudulent war mongering – was dealt within the first fortnight of Russian onslaught, with the Pentagon announcing that it is ending its $500 million program to train and equip Syrian rebels. I am happy that after 25 years, someone has again shown spine. Putin may not be great for people of Russia, but it seems he will end up being great for the world at large. And the good part is Iran, Syria and Russia joining hands in the totally well planned and coordinated attacks, with Iraq already seeking an alliance. All the countries being targeted by the American military, infrastructure and oil companies for the last 25 years are coming together.
However, what could have been potentially a good news for India is now becoming a potential added danger. Any attack on terrorism should have meant that eventually, the US-backed Pakistan would be careful – to whom the greedy Americans also want to sell nuclear technology. And the revival of Russia should have made Pakistan extremely cautious in their approach to spreading any kind of future terrorism in India. After all, it's thanks to USSR's supply of tanks that almost overnight, we had taken the upper hand in the 1965 war with Pakistan that led to the eventual cease fire, giving India the clear moral victory.
But it looks that what could have been an awesome news for India is not so awesome because of our current government's strange priorities. We have decided to cozy up to America, who would never really help us militarily. Their commitment is only for NATO countries, stretching maximum to South Korea at the most. It's the Russians who have not just been our support system during wars but also been there for our internal growth, giving us steel factories and building up our infrastructure. So I was personally shocked at the way the current Indian government treated Putin the last time he was in India, and instead embraced the USA, leading eventually to the first ever joint military exercise between Russia and Pakistan. I was more surprised when recently, India even issued Russia a warning almost, that they shouldn't cosy up with Pakistan. Shocked, because USA was never our friend, I repeat. For years, US supported Pakistan and their terrorism. They didn't even secure the nuclear arsenal of Pakistan despite past speculations. By changing friends, we have now brought Pakistan closer to Russia in addition to their existing proximity to China.
And these are the two countries that we should have been closest to and made a triangle of friendship. If India wants to play the role of a global leader, it must not cosy up to Americans by playing stupid navy war games with them and irritate China or humiliate Putin by showing him as second class in comparison to Obama. I always say that it would make the greatest alliance of power, peace and civilization that the world has ever seen – the alliance between Russia, China and India. They are our neighbors and if they join hands with Pakistan, I do feel it's not just a huge opportunity lost but a potential huge stress for India. And during such times, the last thing India should do is try extra heroics with Pakistan and humiliate them in public. I am personally quite unhappy at the excessive celebrations around our surgical strikes in order to fan nationalism in this country... Firstly, any kind of war is bad; so celebrations are an immature act. I am proud of the Indian army and their capabilities but totally against imbecile showing off. For you are not doing it against a normal nation that's 5000 miles away... You are at war with your next door neighbour, a country which is in a totally broken down unstable state and has nothing to lose in any case. Add to that the fact that they are a completely irresponsible power, almost in competition with North Korea, and with nuclear capabilities. My thoughts: it's a bad idea to humiliate them. They must be handled more strategically for it wouldn't take anything for Pakistan (like North Korea) to bomb anyone... Push them to the corner and they can do anything...
In fact, the truth is that today, behind all the calculated posturing and assumption that they won't hit back, our government is quite tense thinking of the 'what if they hit back' situation... and actually hoping it will be through terrorist attacks and not military attacks... As I tell CEOs in my workshops, it's like you are the boss and you can shout around.. all good... But don't push the unstable fellow too much. If he gets up, shouts back, slaps or hits a paper weight on your head and leaves, and you are on the floor. You might tomorrow get him arrested... fire him... anything... But the story of you being slapped and being on the floor will go on forever in the organization.. And it's you who will have to finally leave the place... Pakistan's nuclear policy clearly states that irrespective of where they are hit from, in case of a nuclear attack, they will first hit India. And that means Delhi and Mumbai. We might hit and destroy Pakistan, but with two of our cities wiped off and millions dead, it's the end of our growth story... And it doesn't seem like a great idea to me. Modi's Balochistan policy was far more intelligent. Let Pakistan break down from within, and by then use your friendship with USA to secure their nuclear weapons and take them away. Pakistan would wither away. India should never let a broken down underdeveloped neighbour get equal status due to false heroics and political gains. It should just quietly win back Russia, forge a relationship with China and aim for further development. Our development and growth is the best answer to Pakistan's terrorism.
I end by saying that India must not lose the friendship of literally the most powerful and non exploitative nation, Russia, at this juncture of its proud journey to global prosperity and dominance, in its excitement to get a few votes and cheers from some ill-educated citizens. Try removing poverty, giving education and health to all sincerely, and votes will flow automatically. If it doesn't, even then it doesn't matter. A strategic mistake for the sake of excessive heroism could ruin the huge advantage we have gained since independence through our democracy and development.