Abyei, a region of misfortune

Not many in India know about Abyei, a small but vital border region between Republic of Sudan and southern Sudan – being created through referendum currently – that has potential to change the political economy both of these countries.

Abyei has large oil reserves and its territorial location is yet to be decided – in fact a disputed region. Blame it on the curse of oil reserves! Finding diamonds or oil in Africa is considered a curse by people. And it’s turning out to be true for the people of Abyei. Abyei is equally capable of causing devastation in the whole region. Because the stakes are very high to control this region.

Referendum in south Sudan mandated for creation of a new country in Africa. And it was a historic moment for people of south who shed lots of blood, lost family members, relatives, and lived as refugee. This historic victory, however, seems an illusion to some. And with it another war seems looming large again in the southern parts of Sudan. Nobody wants another dreaded war which had killed more than 1.5 million Sudanese.

Everything was working smoothly – repatriation of people from north to south, handover of power to the southerners, election followed by referendum in south to remain part of Sudan or secede, and finally process of oil distribution between the two sister countries.

Suddenly all hell broke loose on Abyei. On 21 May 2011, the Sudan Armed Forces attacked the oil rich region and took over the administration and declared arbitrarily as part of Republic of Sudan. Sudanese President, Omar Al-Bashir, abolished the Abyei’s civilian administration with immediate effect once the Sudanese army had taken over Abyei.

Under the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement, Abyei was granted special status. Later on a joint administration was set up in 2008 to administer the area until a referendum decided its fate. The NCP and SPLM(Sudan's People Liberation Movements) have failed to agree on who is eligible to vote in the Abyei referendum. And various mediation efforts by regional and international actors were unsuccessful in breaking the impasse. That vote was due to take place in January 2011 but has now been postponed indefinitely. Even if south Sudan becomes a new nation which is in itself a victory for the southerners, without the fate of oil rich-Abyei is unclear, the victory seems to be lost one. During the coming July, the final secession of south will be complete and both the parties (NCP and SPLM) to the peace agreement are still at loggerhead with each other. In such circumstances the future ahead looks all hazy.

It’s been almost 15 days that Abyei has been under the siege of SAF, yet nothing has been done. Over 100 people have died already in the attacks and many more have fled out of fear. According to UN, tens of thousands have fled towards south. All those on the run were the Dinka Ngok, a southern ethnic group that is the permanent resident of Abyei. There has been extensive looting and burning of shops, tukuls (thatched houses), and property by the Misseriya tribal militias.
The United Nations Security Council (UNSC), expressed its grave concern on the “ongoing violence and rapidly deteriorating situation in Abyei". The Security Council also condemns the fact that two of the three main supply routes from the North to the South have been blocked, and that the Banton Bridge in Southern Abyei was destroyed by the Sudanese Armed Forces, which impedes lifeline trade and makes the return of civilians to Abyei more difficult. The Council calls for immediate measures to restore full access through all routes".

Bashir declared that Abyei belongs to the North and rejected international calls for withdrawal. And its counterpart, the SPLM, condemned NCP for deliberately violating terms prescribed in the Abyei protocol of 2005 peace deal. SPLM, the ruling party of south Sudan, also asserts that "Abyei will not, and will never, be part of the northern Sudan whether by force or by dialogue".

The future hinges on the peaceful and equitable settlement of this patch of land between the republic of Sudan and SPLM of southern Sudan. Sharing of oil revenues between north and south is still undecided. This is crucial because the southern Sudan constitution has included Abyei as its part against the displeasure of President Al-Bashir, who has been, time and again, threatening to withdraw his recognition of the referendum results.