A roadmap for 2011 exit

 

 

In what may lead to the withdrawal of American troops from Iraq in years to come, the outgoing Bush apparatus and the Iraqi Government led by incumbent Nuri Kamal al-Maliki are close to an agreement that would lay out the setting under which American troops would stay put in Iraq for the time being and a roadmap for their eventual departure. The draft text on the context came to Iraq's political council for national security for discussion last week – full seven months after the negotiation for the same started. Concurrent commotion in Washington and Baghdad hinted that the agreement – formally called a status of forces agreement – is in its final stage.

If accepted, the text will be presented before the Iraqi Parliament where it is likely to ignite animated arguement among rival splinter groups resolute to secure partisan gains in advance of next year's regional and legislative vote. Policy-makers are under immense popular pressure to lock an earliest possible time limit for the pulling out of US troops, as well as to guarantee the reinstatement of Iraq's sovereignty.

The preliminary draft asks for the troops to leave Iraqi towns by June 2011 and a phase-wise complete pullout by the end of the same year, “unless asked to provide training and support”. A shared commission would synchronise US military operations. The government will, meanwhile, assure cooperation during searches of homes and detention of suspects. However, it is far easier said than done. PM Nuri al-Maliki is looking for endorsement of the text by two-third of the 275-member National Assembly of Iraq; however, he can bank only of the endorsement of his own Dawa party and Kurdish bloc that have 27 and 58 seats respectively. Faction of rebellious Shia cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, with 32 seats, resists the deal, whereas al-Maliki's Shia coalition partner, the Supreme Iraqi Islamic Council (SIIC), with 30 seats, is still sceptical of lending its support.

Talking to TSI on the withdrawal, noted Iraqi expert at Centre for American Progress, Sean E Duggan said, “An indefinite US military presence will reverse the calculations of Iraqi opposition groups – most notably the Sunni Awakening forces and the Sadr movement – that have been critical in bringing about short-term security improvements. Therefore, it is extremely important for al-Maliki to assure its approval.” Muqtada al-Sadr opposes any accord that would maintain US military in Iraq. And Shiite-dominated Iran, which exercises substantial sway among some Shiite parties, also opposes the accord.

The support of other parties will also depend on Baghdad’s demand of getting authority to arrest and try Americans accused of crimes unrelated to official military operations. Looks like tough times ahead.