A case of Russian Roulette

 

 

Nowadays, it appears as if the Russian President, Vladimir Putin, is having a nice time catching everybody off guard. How does one explain his continuous ‘diplomatic' assaults that have rattled the political class from Minsk to Mississippi?

In what can only be described as a knee-jerk reaction to the US ploy of deploying its missile shields in the Baltic, Russia has suspended its participation in the Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE) pact, through a decree signed by President Vladimir Putin. This was adopted in 1990 to limit the number of offensive weapons, such as battle tanks, combat aircraft and heavy artillery that the Warsaw Pact and NATO powers could deploy in Europe, from the Atlantic to the Urals.

FACTFILE

Russia suspends its participation in the CFE

Kremlin has no strategy for the US and the situation is similar in Washington

In the wake of the collapse of Communism, the treaty was revised in 1999, in part to address Russian concerns. Nevertheless, the revised treaty has never been ratified by the NATO, which wants Russia to withdraw all its forces from two breakaway regions with Russian-speaking majorities: Abkhazia in Georgia and Trans-Dniester in Moldova. The Russian suspension will become effective 150 days after other parties to the treaty have been notified.

Reacting to the decision, Yevgeny Volk, Director, Moscow Office, Heritage Foundation told TSI, “Russian threats have materialised and I don’t exclude more threats following. If there is no agreement with the United States on the missile shield, Russia could go ahead with its threats…”

There are others who see matters in a broader perspective. Talking to TSI, Lilia Shevtsova, expert on Russian politics and political institutions at the Carnegie Moscow Centre, said,“The Kremlin has no long-term strategy for relations with the United States and so is the case with the Bush administration. Though both have established a direct channel of communication on pressing issues, the hard part will be using that channel by generating fresh, productive ideas and finding capable, forward-looking people to handle the job. That looks impossible in the current war of words…” Shevtsova’s concerns are genuine. In his last few months as President, Putin must work to mend fences, but he equally needs the cooperation of the West.